# Baltimore Ravens v New England Patriots — NFL Week 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Baltimore Ravens 24 – 28 New England Patriots

_New England Patriots march past Baltimore Ravens in a tight one._

Half time: 10 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Baltimore Ravens 37% / New England Patriots 63% · M&T Bank Stadium · Mon, 22 Dec, 12:20 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry (3' Tipped ⚡), Zay Flowers (41' Tipped ⚡), Derrick Henry (48' Tipped ⚡) · New England Patriots: Hunter Henry (19'), Kyle Williams (51'), Rhamondre Stevenson (58' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 63% | Won |
| Baltimore Ravens | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.0 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 16, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Dec 2025, 12:20 pm_

Baltimore Ravens 24–28 New England Patriots in NFL Week 16 at M&T Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Three hundred and eighty passing yards. That's what Drake Maye put up against a Baltimore secondary rated the better unit on paper, and it's the number that explains how New England Patriots walked out of M&T Bank Stadium 28-24 winners in a game Baltimore led as late as the fourth quarter.

The scoreboard stayed tight all night, locked at 10-10 by half-time after Derrick Henry opened the scoring and Hunter Henry answered for New England. Baltimore looked to have found the separation everyone expected given the ELO gap was only 12 points in New England's favour: a Zay Flowers touchdown put them up 17-13 through three quarters, and Derrick Henry's second major of the night, with 12:53 to go, stretched it to 23-13. At that point Baltimore had the game exactly where a team with the better pass rush and the better secondary rating wants it.

Then New England did what a 380-yard passing performance lets you do. Kyle Williams' touchdown at the 9:07 mark cut it to 24-19, and Rhamondre Stevenson finished the job with 2:15 left, the last change of lead in the contest. Baltimore never got the ball back with enough left to answer.

The yardage tells the story of two very different game plans. New England ran up 459 total yards to Baltimore's 337, almost all of it through Maye, who went 31-of-44 for those 380 yards with 2 touchdowns and a pick. Baltimore, by contrast, did it on the ground: 171 rushing yards, 37% of their total output, with Lamar Jackson barely needed through the air at 7-of-10 for 101. Derrick Henry led every rusher on the field with 128 yards on 18 carries and 2 touchdowns, and it still wasn't enough.

Baltimore's pass rush did its job, at least statistically: 4 sacks to New England's 1. But Stefon Diggs made sure that pressure didn't matter, hauling in 9 catches for 138 yards as the game's leading target. When your top defensive number is sacks and the opposition's top offensive number is 380 yards through the air, the aggregate stat sheet was always going to lean their way, and it did, 40 first downs to 26.

New England's form coming in, four wins from five with a 29-point scoring average, matched what turned up on the field. Baltimore's 3-2 stretch and 21.2-point average were closer to what they produced through three quarters, before the fourth-quarter surge from New England's backfield and receiving corps, both rated stronger positional units pre-match, did the deciding work.

Alphr's model had New England as 63% favourites, with a 3-point predicted margin against Baltimore. The actual result: New England by 4. The projected total of 55 landed within 3 points of the real 52. A clean read on a game that came down to Baltimore's inability to close out a 10-point lead against an offence built for exactly that kind of finish.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
| New England Patriots | 0 | 10 | 3 | 15 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 337 | Total Yards | **459** |
| 166 | Passing Yards | **380** |
| **171** | Rushing Yards | 79 |
| 26 | First Downs | **40** |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **9** | Offensive EPA | 8.6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted New England Patriots to win at 63% probability. The predicted margin of 3.0 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 55 was close to the actual 52, within 3 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Rogers officiated this match (92 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 6 points above Brad Rogers's career average of 46. New England Patriots bucked the trend, Baltimore Ravens historically win 67% of games under Brad Rogers, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Brad Rogers's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side New England Patriots prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** New England Patriots to win @ $2.54 (edge +23.2%) — model probability 62.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New England Patriots +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 3 · Predicted total: 55

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

New England Patriots are the call at 63%, but Baltimore Ravens stay live at 37%. Form leans New England Patriots' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Baltimore Ravens.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Baltimore Ravens by 3.0, with the two sides combining for about 55. Lean New England Patriots, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

New England Patriots have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and New England Patriots took the most recent meeting 28-24 in 2025 Week 16.

Baltimore Ravens went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 24.9 points for and 23.4 against.

New England Patriots went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-0 away, averaging 28.8 points for and 18.8 against.

Lamar Jackson starts under centre for Baltimore Ravens, Drake Maye for New England Patriots, with John Harbaugh and Mike Vrabel calling the shots.

The market has Baltimore Ravens favourites, Baltimore Ravens $1.54 and New England Patriots $2.54, with the spread at Baltimore Ravens -3.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Baltimore Ravens 5 · New England Patriots 7 |
| Last meeting | New England Patriots 28-24 (2025) |
| Baltimore Ravens 2025 so far | 8-9 · 3-6 home |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 24.9 for · 23.4 against |
| New England Patriots 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-0 away |
| New England Patriots scoring | 28.8 for · 18.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Lamar Jackson · Drake Maye |
| Head coaches | John Harbaugh · Mike Vrabel |
| Market | Baltimore Ravens $1.54 · New England Patriots $2.54 |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Brad Rogers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Baltimore Ravens

**Brad Rogers** — 92 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Brad Rogers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 2W–1L | 67% |
| New England Patriots | 2W–2L | 50% |

Avg total: 45.8 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Rogers officiates, Baltimore Ravens have won 2 of 3 games (67%), significantly stronger than New England Patriots's 2 from 4 (50%). Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (3 games for Baltimore Ravens).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 21.2pts | Avg Score | 29.0pts |
| 17.0pts | Avg Conceded | 21.4pts |
| 4.2pts | Avg Margin | 7.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | W11 W · W12 W · W13 L · W14 L · W15 W | 21.2 |
| New England Patriots | W10 W · W11 W · W12 W · W13 W · W15 L | 29.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New England Patriots lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W16 | Baltimore Ravens | 24 – 28 | New England Patriots |
| 2022 | W3 | New England Patriots | 26 – 37 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2020 | W10 | New England Patriots | 23 – 17 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2019 | W9 | Baltimore Ravens | 37 – 20 | New England Patriots |
| 2016 | W14 | New England Patriots | 30 – 23 | Baltimore Ravens |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at M&T Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Baltimore Ravens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 10 in 14g | 7/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 3/3g | 20/19g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.76 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 48' |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 28/64g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Kolar | TE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/19g | 14% | — | — |
| – | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/10g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Devontez Walker | WR | 2 in 6g | 3/9g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Lamar Jackson | QB | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/3g | 21/61g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Rashod Bateman | WR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/35g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 6/26g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 41' |
| – | Isaiah Likely | TE | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 9/31g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Keaton Mitchell | RB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/13g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 7% | — | — |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Huntley | QB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/15g | 15% | — | — |

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 8 in 14g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·3·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 45% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kayshon Boutte | WR | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 5 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 28% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |
| – | Stefon Diggs | WR | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Mack Hollins | WR | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Austin Hooper | TE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New England Patriots** (4 picks)
- ⚡ TreVeyon Henderson 🎯 — 7 TDs in last 5 (6 rush · 1 pass) · model 45% · no TD
- ⚡ Rhamondre Stevenson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Stefon Diggs — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- ⚡ Kayshon Boutte — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- Rest of the Patriots: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: H.Henry, K.Williams

**Baltimore Ravens** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 54% · **scored Q1, Q4**
- ⚡ Zay Flowers 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 38% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Ravens: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Baltimore Ravens 1558 · New England Patriots 1546 · ELO difference: 12 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Baltimore Ravens | New England Patriots | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 42 | 64 | New England Patriots +22 |
| Receiving Corps | 46 | 58 | New England Patriots +12 |
| Backfield | 63 | 76 | New England Patriots +13 |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 46 | Baltimore Ravens +6 |
| Secondary | 62 | 59 | Even |
| Special Teams | 65 | 65 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | — |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New England Patriots |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — New England Patriots predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 55 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-22 01:20 UTC (latest tip update)