# Arizona Cardinals v Atlanta Falcons — NFL Week 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Arizona Cardinals 19 – 26 Atlanta Falcons

_Atlanta Falcons survive a scare against Arizona Cardinals._

Half time: 16 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Arizona Cardinals 22% / Atlanta Falcons 78% · State Farm Stadium · Mon, 22 Dec, 08:05 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Arizona Cardinals: Michael Wilson (8' Tipped ⚡) · Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson (18' Tipped ⚡), Kyle Pitts (30' Tipped ⚡), Kirk Cousins (48')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 78% | Won |
| Arizona Cardinals | 22% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.4 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 16, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Dec 2025, 08:05 am_

Arizona Cardinals 19–26 Atlanta Falcons in NFL Week 16 at State Farm Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Offensive EPA tells the story on its own: Arizona Cardinals finished at minus 0.2, Atlanta Falcons at plus 3.8. That gap is the whole match in one number, and it's why the final score read Falcons 26, Cardinals 19 at State Farm Stadium.

It wasn't one-way traffic early, though. Michael Wilson got the Cardinals on the board first, a touchdown with 7:50 left in the first quarter that had them up 9-0 and still ahead 10-3 at the end of the term. Bijan Robinson answered for Atlanta with 12:03 left in the second, then Kyle Pitts levelled it at 16-16 with 29 seconds left in the half. That's as tight as it got. Atlanta led 19-16 by the end of the third, then Kirk Cousins scored with 12:33 to go in the fourth to make it 25-16. Arizona managed only a late score in reply, closing it out at 19-26.

The yardage gap was narrow, 349 to 335 in Atlanta's favour, but the Falcons turned theirs into scores that stuck. Their ground game did the heavy lifting: 152 rushing yards, with Tyler Allgeier the game's leading rusher at 79 yards from 16 carries. That's the backfield edge showing up exactly as billed. Atlanta came in rated 67 to Arizona's 52 at that position, and it played out that way on the field.

Through the air, Cousins was the more productive of the two starting quarterbacks: 21 from 35 for 197 yards and 2 touchdowns, with one interception. Jacoby Brissett went 16 from 31 for 203 yards and a touchdown for Arizona, also throwing a pick. Robinson was the game's leading target regardless of position, 7 catches for 92 yards and a score, doing damage as both a runner and a receiver.

Here's the odd part. Atlanta lost the turnover battle 2 to 1, which usually costs a team a game like this, but the efficiency gap was too wide for it to matter. First downs told the same story, 32 to 24 in the Falcons' favour, and Arizona's pass rush managed only a single sack against Atlanta's two. That pass rush group was rated the weaker of the two coming in, 47 to 57, and it showed on the day.

Arizona arrived on the back of five straight losses and an average margin of minus 14.6 over that stretch, conceding 34.6 points a game on average. Getting it to 16-16 at the break against a Falcons side that had won two of its last five was a decent effort, and Wilson's early touchdown gave the home crowd something to hang onto. Atlanta, for its part, came in on better rest, 10 days to Arizona's 7, and with the stronger positional ratings across the board: quarterback, backfield, pass rush, secondary and, most heavily, special teams at 76 to 46.

Alphr's model had Atlanta favoured at 78% and predicted a 9.4-point win. The actual margin was 7. The total score prediction of 42 landed within 3 points of the real figure, 45. A sharp read all around, and the game played out almost exactly the way the model's positional gaps suggested it would.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 10 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 19 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Arizona Cardinals | Stat | Atlanta Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| 335 | Total Yards | **349** |
| **203** | Passing Yards | 197 |
| 132 | Rushing Yards | **152** |
| 24 | First Downs | **32** |
| **1** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| -0.2 | Offensive EPA | **3.8** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Atlanta Falcons to win at 78% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Atlanta Falcons by 9.4 vs the actual margin of 7 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 45, within 3 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Land Clark officiated this match (95 career games). The 45-point combined total was right in line with Land Clark's career average of 46. Atlanta Falcons bucked the trend, Arizona Cardinals historically win 67% of games under Land Clark, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Atlanta Falcons to win @ $1.68 (edge +18.0%) — model probability 77.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Atlanta Falcons -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Atlanta Falcons by 9 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Atlanta Falcons here: 78% to see off Arizona Cardinals. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Atlanta Falcons sit 21 ELO points clear, 1402 to 1381. Form leans Atlanta Falcons' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Arizona Cardinals.

Atlanta Falcons own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Secondary. The margin model has Atlanta Falcons by 9.4, with the two sides combining for about 42. Atlanta Falcons to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Atlanta Falcons have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Atlanta Falcons took the most recent meeting 26-19 in 2025 Week 16.

Arizona Cardinals went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 at home, averaging 20.9 points for and 28.7 against.

Atlanta Falcons went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 20.8 points for and 23.6 against.

Jacoby Brissett starts under centre for Arizona Cardinals, Kirk Cousins for Atlanta Falcons, with Jonathan Gannon and Raheem Morris calling the shots.

Atlanta Falcons come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Atlanta Falcons favourites, Arizona Cardinals $2.24 and Atlanta Falcons $1.68, with the spread at Atlanta Falcons -2.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Arizona Cardinals 5 · Atlanta Falcons 7 |
| Last meeting | Atlanta Falcons 26-19 (2025) |
| Arizona Cardinals 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 home |
| Arizona Cardinals scoring | 20.9 for · 28.7 against |
| Atlanta Falcons 2025 so far | 8-9 · 4-5 away |
| Atlanta Falcons scoring | 20.8 for · 23.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jacoby Brissett · Kirk Cousins |
| Head coaches | Jonathan Gannon · Raheem Morris |
| Rest | Arizona Cardinals 7d · Atlanta Falcons 10d |
| Market | Arizona Cardinals $2.24 · Atlanta Falcons $1.68 |
| Spread | Atlanta Falcons -2.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Land Clark |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Arizona Cardinals

**Land Clark** — 95 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Land Clark | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 4W–2L | 67% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 2W–6L | 25% |

Avg total: 45.5 pts · Home win %: 43% · Home bias: Leans away

When Land Clark officiates, Arizona Cardinals have won 4 of 6 games (67%), significantly stronger than Atlanta Falcons's 2 from 8 (25%). Away teams perform well, home sides win just 43%, below ~55% league avg. Small sample (6 games for Arizona Cardinals).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Arizona Cardinals | Stat | Atlanta Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 22.6pts |
| 34.6pts | Avg Conceded | 26.4pts |
| -14.6pts | Avg Margin | -3.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | W11 L · W12 L · W13 L · W14 L · W15 L | 20.0 |
| Atlanta Falcons | W11 L · W12 W · W13 L · W14 L · W15 W | 22.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Atlanta Falcons lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W16 | Arizona Cardinals | 19 – 26 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2023 | W10 | Arizona Cardinals | 25 – 23 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2022 | W17 | Atlanta Falcons | 20 – 19 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2019 | W6 | Arizona Cardinals | 34 – 33 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2018 | W15 | Atlanta Falcons | 40 – 14 | Arizona Cardinals |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at State Farm Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Arizona Cardinals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Trey McBride | TE | 10 in 14g | 9/10g (0·1·2·1·1·1·0·1·0·2) | 1/2g | 7/27g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 48% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 7/13g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 32% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Michael Wilson | WR | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 4/22g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $12.50 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' |
| – | Emari Demercado | RB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/16g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jacoby Brissett | QB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Michael Carter | RB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/10g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Corey Kiner | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Higgins | TE | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/19g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Brooks | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Josiah Deguara | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Steven Sims | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Weaver | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

**Atlanta Falcons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bijan Robinson | RB | 8 in 14g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.52 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.70 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' |
| – | Tyler Allgeier | RB | 8 in 14g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Drake London | WR | 6 in 9g | 8/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·0·3·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kyle Pitts | TE | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' |
| – | David Sills | WR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Darnell Mooney | WR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Woerner | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Deven Thompkins | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Kirk Cousins | QB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/1g | 2% | — | 🏉 48' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Atlanta Falcons** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Bijan Robinson 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 45% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Drake London 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Kyle Pitts — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Falcons: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Cousins

**Arizona Cardinals** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Trey McBride 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 48% · no TD
- ⚡ Michael Wilson 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 36% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Marvin Harrison Jr. — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- Rest of the Cardinals: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Arizona Cardinals 1381 · Atlanta Falcons 1402 · ELO difference: 21 in favour of Atlanta Falcons

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Arizona Cardinals | Atlanta Falcons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 53 | 51 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 67 | 67 | Even |
| Backfield | 52 | 67 | Atlanta Falcons +15 |
| Pass Rush | 47 | 57 | Atlanta Falcons +10 |
| Secondary | 54 | 59 | Atlanta Falcons +5 |
| Special Teams | 46 | 76 | Atlanta Falcons +30 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Atlanta Falcons |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Atlanta Falcons |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Atlanta Falcons |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Atlanta Falcons |

**Model Confidence: 78%** — Atlanta Falcons predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-21 21:05 UTC (latest tip update)