# Seattle Seahawks v Indianapolis Colts — NFL Week 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Seattle Seahawks 18 – 16 Indianapolis Colts

_Seattle Seahawks hit back to ride the wave past Indianapolis Colts._

Half time: 6 – 13 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Seattle Seahawks 92% / Indianapolis Colts 8% · Lumen Field · Mon, 15 Dec, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Seattle Seahawks: none · Indianapolis Colts: Josh Downs (29')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 92% | Won |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.9 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Seattle Seahawks vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 15, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Dec 2025, 08:25 am_

Seattle Seahawks 18–16 Indianapolis Colts in NFL Week 15 at Lumen Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seattle Seahawks 18, Indianapolis Colts 16. Read that scoreline and you'd guess a coin-flip finish decided by a bounce or a whistle. Look at the yardage and it's a different match: Seattle ran up 321 total yards to the Colts' 222, moved the ball through the air almost at will, and still needed the full four quarters to get there.

The Seahawks did all of that without crossing the goal line once. Every one of their 18 points came from somewhere other than a touchdown, which is an odd way to win an NFL game. Seattle came in rated 91 to 48 on special teams, the biggest gap on the entire sheet, and on a night the offence couldn't finish drives in the end zone, that gap mattered.

Indianapolis had the only touchdown of the night. Josh Downs scored with 1:37 left in the second quarter, stretching the Colts out to 12-3 and then 13-6 at the break. That was the high point of their evening. Seattle trailed at half-time, the only time all match they were behind on the scoreboard, then ground it back: 9-13 through three quarters, 18-16 at the final whistle. A seven-point deficit at the break against a team that would go on to outgain you by 99 yards isn't a disaster, but it's not the platform the pre-match numbers suggested either. Seattle went in favoured by 13.9 points.

Sam Darnold had the ball in his hands often and did plenty with it: 22 of 36 for 271 yards. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the clear go-to, seven catches for 113 yards, and that duo is most of the reason Seattle's total yardage number ran away from Indianapolis. Philip Rivers, by contrast, was held to 18 of 27 for just 120 yards, with the one touchdown and an interception, a quiet night against a Seattle secondary rated 68 to the Colts' 53 coming in. The two pass rushes were rated almost identically, 62 to 60 in Indianapolis' favour, and finished the game with a sack apiece.

Where Indianapolis did win was on the ground. Jonathan Taylor carried 25 times for 87 yards, and the Colts' 102 rushing yards more than doubled Seattle's 50. That's a genuine positive for a side that came in on a 1-4 run with an average margin of minus five points a game, a stretch that made Seattle's 4-1 form and plus-16 average margin look like a mismatch on paper. Problem is, 102 rushing yards against 271 through the air doesn't balance the ledger, and the turnover column made it worse for Indianapolis: they coughed one up, Seattle didn't give up a single one.

Offensive EPA had Seattle at minus 2.4 and the Colts at minus 5.7, both sides leaving points out there, but the Colts left more of them out there. First downs told a similar story, 24 for Seattle to 21 for Indianapolis, a slim edge but a real one across four quarters.

Alphr's model had Seattle winning this at 92% before kick-off, with a projected margin of 13.9 points and a combined total of 33. The final score landed at 34 points combined, within a single point of that projection, and Seattle did win. It just did it by two, not fourteen, and without ever finding the end zone. Sometimes the model gets the winner right and the story wrong.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 18 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| **321** | Total Yards | 222 |
| **271** | Passing Yards | 120 |
| 50 | Rushing Yards | **102** |
| **24** | First Downs | 21 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **-2.4** | Offensive EPA | -5.7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Seattle Seahawks to win at 92% probability. The predicted margin of 13.9 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 33 was close to the actual 34, within 1 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Adrian Hill officiated this match (112 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 11 points below Adrian Hill's career average of 45. Seattle Seahawks's victory aligns with Adrian Hill's historical trend, Seattle Seahawks have a 83% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.10 (edge +0.8%) — model probability 91.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Indianapolis Colts +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 14 · Predicted total: 33

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Seattle Seahawks here: 92% to see off Indianapolis Colts. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Seattle Seahawks sit 156 ELO points clear, 1658 to 1503. Form leans Seattle Seahawks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Indianapolis Colts.

Seattle Seahawks own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Seattle Seahawks by 13.9, with the two sides combining for about 33. Seattle Seahawks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Seattle Seahawks have won 4 of the last 7 between these two, and Seattle Seahawks took the most recent meeting 18-16 in 2025 Week 15.

Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-2 at home, averaging 28.4 points for and 17.2 against.

Indianapolis Colts went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 27.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Sam Darnold starts under centre for Seattle Seahawks, Riley Leonard for Indianapolis Colts, with Mike Macdonald and Shane Steichen calling the shots.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, Seattle Seahawks $1.10 and Indianapolis Colts $7.50, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -13.5 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Seattle Seahawks 4 · Indianapolis Colts 3 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 18-16 (2025) |
| Seattle Seahawks 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-2 home |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 28.4 for · 17.2 against |
| Indianapolis Colts 2025 so far | 8-9 · 2-6 away |
| Indianapolis Colts scoring | 27.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Sam Darnold · Riley Leonard |
| Head coaches | Mike Macdonald · Shane Steichen |
| Market | Seattle Seahawks $1.10 · Indianapolis Colts $7.50 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -13.5 · total 41.5 |
| Referee | Adrian Hill |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Seattle Seahawks

**Adrian Hill** — 112 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Adrian Hill | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 5W–1L | 83% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 3W–1L | 75% |

Avg total: 44.6 pts · Home win %: 47% · Home bias: Neutral

Seattle Seahawks hold a 8-point edge: 5W–1L (83%) vs Indianapolis Colts's 3W–1L (75%). Small sample (4 games for Indianapolis Colts).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 31.2pts | Avg Score | 21.2pts |
| 15.2pts | Avg Conceded | 26.2pts |
| 16.0pts | Avg Margin | -5.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | W10 W · W11 L · W12 W · W13 W · W14 W | 31.2 |
| Indianapolis Colts | W9 L · W10 W · W12 L · W13 L · W14 L | 21.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W15 | Seattle Seahawks | 18 – 16 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2021 | W1 | Indianapolis Colts | 16 – 28 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2017 | W4 | Seattle Seahawks | 46 – 18 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2013 | W5 | Indianapolis Colts | 34 – 28 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2009 | W4 | Indianapolis Colts | 34 – 17 | Seattle Seahawks |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lumen Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 9 in 13g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·2·0·2) | 0/0g | 13/23g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.96 AI 58% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.50 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zach Charbonnet | RB | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (1·1·0·2·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 11/21g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.10 AI 33% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/14g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 4 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 13/27g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.02 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/3g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/2g | 0/10g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Brady Russell | RB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Eric Saubert | TE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Nick Kallerup | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |

**Indianapolis Colts** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jonathan Taylor | RB | 18 in 13g | 14/10g (0·3·1·3·3·0·3·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.92 AI 58% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Michael Pittman | WR | 7 in 13g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.80 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tyler Warren | TE | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Josh Downs | WR | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Alec Pierce | WR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $7.00 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $34.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ameer Abdullah | RB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Coleman Owen | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Philip Rivers | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Goodson | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Indianapolis Colts** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jonathan Taylor 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 58% · no TD
- ⚡ Alec Pierce 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Michael Pittman — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Colts: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Downs

**Seattle Seahawks** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 58% · no TD
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Zach Charbonnet — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- Rest of the Seahawks: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Seattle Seahawks 1658 · Indianapolis Colts 1503 · ELO difference: 156 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Seattle Seahawks | Indianapolis Colts | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 41 | 60 | Indianapolis Colts +19 |
| Receiving Corps | 60 | 58 | Even |
| Backfield | 58 | 58 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 60 | 62 | Even |
| Secondary | 68 | 53 | Seattle Seahawks +15 |
| Special Teams | 91 | 48 | Seattle Seahawks +43 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 92%** — Seattle Seahawks predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 33 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-14 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)