# San Francisco 49ers v Tennessee Titans — NFL Week 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: San Francisco 49ers 37 – 24 Tennessee Titans

_San Francisco 49ers dig past Tennessee Titans._

Half time: 17 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: San Francisco 49ers 99% / Tennessee Titans 1% · Levi's Stadium · Mon, 15 Dec, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — San Francisco 49ers: Jauan Jennings (8' Tipped ⚡), Christian McCaffrey (17' Tipped ⚡), Jauan Jennings (32' Tipped ⚡), George Kittle (43' Tipped ⚡) · Tennessee Titans: Gunnar Helm (23'), Jeffery Simmons (46'), Tony Pollard (55' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 99% | Won |
| Tennessee Titans | 1% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 25.9 predicted → 13 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**San Francisco 49ers vs Tennessee Titans Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 15, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Dec 2025, 08:25 am_

San Francisco 49ers 37–24 Tennessee Titans in NFL Week 15 at Levi's Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Four hundred and thirty-three yards to three hundred and six. That's the gap San Francisco put between themselves and Tennessee at Levi's Stadium, and the 49ers turned it into a 37-24 win that was rarely in doubt. When one side is moving the ball nearly a third more than the other, the scoreboard tends to agree.

The shape of it was set early. Jauan Jennings got San Francisco on the board inside the first quarter, and by the end of that term it was 7-3. Tennessee weren't out of it yet.

Christian McCaffrey stretched the lead out in the second quarter, making it 13-3, before Gunnar Helm pulled one back for the Titans to trim it to 14-9. San Francisco went into the sheds up 17-10. A seven-point break, nothing outrageous, and Tennessee had shown enough to suggest they'd stick around.

Then the third quarter happened. Jennings scored his second inside the opening minute of the term, and George Kittle added another with just over two minutes left in the quarter. By the time the third wrapped up, San Francisco led 31-10. That's 14 unanswered points across the term, and it did most of the damage.

Tennessee did find some late pride. Jha'Quan Simmons Jr's touchdown at the start of the fourth made it 31-16, and Tony Pollard crossed soon after to bring it to 34-23. But chasing an 18-point deficit with five minutes left was always more about pride than genuine threat, and San Francisco closed it out 37-24.

The individual numbers back up what the scoreboard showed. Brock Purdy went 23-of-30 for 295 yards and three touchdowns, while Cam Ward was 18-of-29 for 170 and two scores at the other end. Tony Pollard led all rushers with 104 yards on 14 carries and a touchdown, and Ricky Pearsall was the game's top target with six catches for 96 yards.

Oddly, San Francisco won this one despite losing the turnover battle 1-0 and getting sacked twice while Tennessee we

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 7 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 37 |
| Tennessee Titans | 3 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| San Francisco 49ers | Stat | Tennessee Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **433** | Total Yards | 306 |
| **295** | Passing Yards | 170 |
| **138** | Rushing Yards | 136 |
| **43** | First Downs | 25 |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| **17.3** | Offensive EPA | 11.4 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted San Francisco 49ers to win at 99% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 25.9 but the actual margin was 13 points. The game's 61 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 44. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Craig Wrolstad officiated this match (194 career games). The combined score of 61 points was 15 points above Craig Wrolstad's career average of 46. San Francisco 49ers's victory aligns with Craig Wrolstad's historical trend, San Francisco 49ers have a 42% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** San Francisco 49ers to win @ $1.11 (edge +8.8%) — model probability 98.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** San Francisco 49ers -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: San Francisco 49ers by 26 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on San Francisco 49ers here: 99% to see off Tennessee Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: San Francisco 49ers sit 299 ELO points clear, 1557 to 1258. Form leans San Francisco 49ers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Tennessee Titans.

San Francisco 49ers own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has San Francisco 49ers by 25.9, with the two sides combining for about 44. San Francisco 49ers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

San Francisco 49ers have won 4 of the last 7 between these two, and San Francisco 49ers took the most recent meeting 37-24 in 2025 Week 15.

San Francisco 49ers went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 25.7 points for and 21.8 against.

Tennessee Titans went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 16.7 points for and 28.1 against.

Brock Purdy starts under centre for San Francisco 49ers, Cam Ward for Tennessee Titans, with Kyle Shanahan and Brian Callahan calling the shots.

San Francisco 49ers come in fresher, 14 days between games against 7.

The market has San Francisco 49ers favourites, San Francisco 49ers $1.11 and Tennessee Titans $7.00, with the spread at San Francisco 49ers -12.5 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | San Francisco 49ers 4 · Tennessee Titans 3 |
| Last meeting | San Francisco 49ers 37-24 (2025) |
| San Francisco 49ers 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-3 home |
| San Francisco 49ers scoring | 25.7 for · 21.8 against |
| Tennessee Titans 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-6 away |
| Tennessee Titans scoring | 16.7 for · 28.1 against |
| Quarterbacks | Brock Purdy · Cam Ward |
| Head coaches | Kyle Shanahan · Brian Callahan |
| Rest | San Francisco 49ers 14d · Tennessee Titans 7d |
| Market | San Francisco 49ers $1.11 · Tennessee Titans $7.00 |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -12.5 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Craig Wrolstad |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours San Francisco 49ers

**Craig Wrolstad** — 194 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Craig Wrolstad | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 5W–7L | 42% |
| Tennessee Titans | 2W–8L | 20% |

Avg total: 45.5 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

When Craig Wrolstad officiates, San Francisco 49ers have won 5 of 12 games (42%), significantly stronger than Tennessee Titans's 2 from 10 (20%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| San Francisco 49ers | Stat | Tennessee Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 29.4pts | Avg Score | 18.2pts |
| 21.0pts | Avg Conceded | 25.4pts |
| 8.4pts | Avg Margin | -7.2pts |
| 14.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | W9 W · W10 L · W11 W · W12 W · W13 W | 29.4 |
| Tennessee Titans | W9 L · W11 L · W12 L · W13 L · W14 W | 18.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — San Francisco 49ers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W15 | San Francisco 49ers | 37 – 24 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2021 | W16 | Tennessee Titans | 20 – 17 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2017 | W15 | San Francisco 49ers | 25 – 23 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2013 | W7 | Tennessee Titans | 17 – 31 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2009 | W9 | San Francisco 49ers | 27 – 34 | Tennessee Titans |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Levi's Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**San Francisco 49ers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 13 in 13g | 12/10g (1·1·1·2·0·2·0·3·1·1) | 3/1g | 27/26g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.40 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $3.60 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' |
| – | George Kittle | TE | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/2g | 26/64g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 43' |
| – | Jauan Jennings | WR | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 8/35g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' 32' |
| – | Brian Robinson | RB | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/6g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Brock Purdy | QB | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 8/27g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Juszczyk | RB | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 9/61g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Demarcus Robinson | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/5g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Kendrick Bourne | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 6/32g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime TD $14.00 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Ricky Pearsall | WR | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Skyy Moore | WR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |

**Tennessee Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chimere Dike | WR | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 35% | 🎯 First TD $23.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tony Pollard | RB | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/4g | 0/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 25% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $16.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 55' |
| – | Elic Ayomanor | WR | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Cam Ward | QB | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | David Martin-Robinson | TE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Gunnar Helm | TE | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Tyjae Spears | RB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Van Jefferson | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Chig Okonkwo | TE | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | James Proche | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Julius Chestnut | RB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kalel Mullings | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Tennessee Titans** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Tony Pollard 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 25% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Titans: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: G.Helm, J.Simmons

**San Francisco 49ers** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Christian McCaffrey 🎯 — 7 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 2 pass) · model 65% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ George Kittle 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 37% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Jauan Jennings — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 35% · **scored Q1, Q3**
- ⚡ Ricky Pearsall — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 27% · no TD
- ⚡ Kendrick Bourne — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the 49ers: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — San Francisco 49ers 1557 · Tennessee Titans 1258 · ELO difference: 299 in favour of San Francisco 49ers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | San Francisco 49ers | Tennessee Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 59 | 40 | San Francisco 49ers +19 |
| Receiving Corps | 74 | 45 | San Francisco 49ers +29 |
| Backfield | 70 | 43 | San Francisco 49ers +27 |
| Pass Rush | 48 | 61 | Tennessee Titans +13 |
| Secondary | 58 | 54 | Even |
| Special Teams | 71 | 57 | San Francisco 49ers +14 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Tennessee Titans |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | San Francisco 49ers |

**Model Confidence: 99%** — San Francisco 49ers predicted to win by 26 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-14 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)