# Pittsburgh Steelers v Miami Dolphins — NFL Week 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Pittsburgh Steelers 28 – 15 Miami Dolphins

_Pittsburgh Steelers steamroll Miami Dolphins._

Half time: 7 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Pittsburgh Steelers 59% / Miami Dolphins 41% · Acrisure Stadium · Tue, 16 Dec, 12:15 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Pittsburgh Steelers: Connor Heyward (30'), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (34'), DK Metcalf (40' Tipped ⚡), Jonnu Smith (47') · Miami Dolphins: Darren Waller (51' Tipped ⚡), Darren Waller (58' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 59% | Won |
| Miami Dolphins | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.6 predicted → 13 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 15, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 Dec 2025, 12:15 pm_

Pittsburgh Steelers 28–15 Miami Dolphins in NFL Week 15 at Acrisure Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fifteen and eight tenths. That is the gap in expected points added between Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins on Sunday, 13.8 to minus 2, and it explains a 28-15 scoreline better than any individual highlight could. Every meaningful snap the Steelers ran did more damage than the one before it. Every Dolphins possession, statistically, made things worse.

The scoreboard didn't scream it early. Pittsburgh led just 7-3 at half-time after Connor Heyward's touchdown with 21 seconds left in the second quarter, and Miami's defence had done enough to keep it a one-score game. Then the third quarter happened. Marquez Valdes-Scantling scored with 11:26 left in the period, DK Metcalf followed with 5:06 to go, and by the time the quarter ended Pittsburgh had turned 7-3 into 21-3. That's 14 unanswered points in a single quarter, and it's where the game actually got decided, whatever the final margin suggests about how tight it was.

Jonnu Smith added another early in the fourth to make it 27-3, and by then Miami's only path back was mopping up garbage time. Darren Waller did that job on his own, scoring twice in the final ten minutes to get the margin looking respectable at 28-15. Two touchdowns from one player against a 25-point deficit is a decent night's work, but it's the definition of arriving too late.

The yardage tells a version of this too, though not the whole story. Pittsburgh out-gained Miami 359 to 316, mostly on the ground: 135 rushing yards to Miami's 63, with Kenny Gainwell doing the heavy lifting at 80 yards on 13 carries. Miami actually won first downs 31 to 30 and out-threw Pittsburgh through the air, Tua Tagovailoa going 22 of 28 for 253 yards against Aaron Rodgers' 23 of 27 for 224. But Rodgers didn't throw a pick, Tagovailoa did, and Pittsburgh's pass rush got home four times to Miami's three. Efficiency and the turnover column mattered more than raw yardage in this one, and Miami lost both.

None of that lines up with how the two sides were rated coming in. Miami had the better quarterback rating, 47 to 42, the better receiving corps, the better backfield, better pass rush, secondary and special teams across the board. On paper this was Miami's game to win, and their recent form backed it up: four wins from five, an average margin of plus 5.2, against a Steelers side that had lost three of its last five. It's the sort of profile that should travel, and on this occasion it simply didn't show up when it counted, particularly in that third-quarter stretch where Pittsburgh pulled away.

Alphr's model still had Pittsburgh as the pick, 59% to win with a projected margin of 2.6 off ELO ratings of 1513 to 1496. The final margin blew well past that number, but the read on the game's shape held up: combined total of 43 landed within two points of the model's 45, and the underlying favourite got there. The margin was the miss. The winner and the total were close enough to matter.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 28 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 15 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Pittsburgh Steelers | Stat | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| **359** | Total Yards | 316 |
| 224 | Passing Yards | **253** |
| **135** | Rushing Yards | 63 |
| 30 | First Downs | **31** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 3 |
| **13.8** | Offensive EPA | -2 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Pittsburgh Steelers to win at 59% probability. The predicted margin of 2.6 was reasonable against the actual 13-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 43, within 2 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 42.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Land Clark officiated this match (95 career games). The 43-point combined total was right in line with Land Clark's career average of 46. Pittsburgh Steelers bucked the trend, Miami Dolphins historically win 40% of games under Land Clark, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Pittsburgh Steelers to win @ $1.57 (edge -4.4%) — model probability 59.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Miami Dolphins +3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Pittsburgh Steelers are the call at 59%, but Miami Dolphins stay live at 41%. Form leans Miami Dolphins' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Pittsburgh Steelers.

On paper Miami Dolphins shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Quarterback, Pass Rush and Recent Form. The model still sides with Pittsburgh Steelers, which says Team Rating (ELO) carry the most weight. The margin model has Pittsburgh Steelers by 2.6, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Pittsburgh Steelers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Pittsburgh Steelers have won 8 of the last 11 between these two, and Pittsburgh Steelers took the most recent meeting 28-15 in 2025 Week 15.

Pittsburgh Steelers went 10-7 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 23.4 points for and 22.8 against.

Miami Dolphins went 7-10 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 20.4 points for and 24.9 against.

Aaron Rodgers starts under centre for Pittsburgh Steelers, Tua Tagovailoa for Miami Dolphins, with Mike Tomlin and Mike McDaniel calling the shots.

The market has Pittsburgh Steelers favourites, Pittsburgh Steelers $1.57 and Miami Dolphins $2.45, with the spread at Pittsburgh Steelers -3 and the total at 42.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 11) | Pittsburgh Steelers 8 · Miami Dolphins 3 |
| Last meeting | Pittsburgh Steelers 28-15 (2025) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 so far | 10-7 · 6-3 home |
| Pittsburgh Steelers scoring | 23.4 for · 22.8 against |
| Miami Dolphins 2025 so far | 7-10 · 2-6 away |
| Miami Dolphins scoring | 20.4 for · 24.9 against |
| Quarterbacks | Aaron Rodgers · Tua Tagovailoa |
| Head coaches | Mike Tomlin · Mike McDaniel |
| Market | Pittsburgh Steelers $1.57 · Miami Dolphins $2.45 |
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 · total 42.5 |
| Referee | Land Clark |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Miami Dolphins

**Land Clark** — 95 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Land Clark | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2W–4L | 33% |
| Miami Dolphins | 2W–3L | 40% |

Avg total: 45.6 pts · Home win %: 42% · Home bias: Leans away

Miami Dolphins hold a 7-point edge: 2W–3L (40%) vs Pittsburgh Steelers's 2W–4L (33%). Away teams perform well, home sides win just 42%, below ~55% league avg. Small sample (5 games for Miami Dolphins).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Pittsburgh Steelers | Stat | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 21.2pts | Avg Score | 21.4pts |
| 23.2pts | Avg Conceded | 16.2pts |
| -2.0pts | Avg Margin | 5.2pts |
| 8.0d | Rest Days | 8.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | W10 L · W11 W · W12 L · W13 L · W14 W | 21.2 |
| Miami Dolphins | W9 L · W10 W · W11 W · W13 W · W14 W | 21.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Pittsburgh Steelers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 28 – 15 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2022 | W7 | Miami Dolphins | 16 – 10 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2019 | W8 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 27 – 14 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2016 | W18 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 30 – 12 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2016 | W6 | Miami Dolphins | 30 – 15 | Pittsburgh Steelers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Acrisure Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | DK Metcalf | WR | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/7g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 28% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' |
| – | Jaylen Warren | RB | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 4/30g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.10 AI 43% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kenny Gainwell | RB | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 4/7g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Pat Freiermuth | TE | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 7/24g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.30 AI 20% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Calvin Austin III | WR | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/23g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jonnu Smith | TE | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/8g | 24% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Aaron Rodgers | QB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ben Skowronek | WR | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Connor Heyward | RB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/27g | 6% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Darnell Washington | TE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/17g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Adam Thielen | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Kaleb Johnson | RB | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 34' |

**Miami Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | De'Von Achane | RB | 11 in 13g | 9/10g (1·1·2·0·1·0·2·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.88 AI 47% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.75 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Darren Waller | TE | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.70 AI 21% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' 58' |
| – | Ollie Gordon II | RB | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Malik Washington | WR | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jaylen Wright | RB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Alec Ingold | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Dee Eskridge | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Greg Dulcich | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Julian Hill | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Miami Dolphins** (3 picks)
- ⚡ De'Von Achane 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 47% · no TD
- ⚡ Jaylen Waddle 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Darren Waller — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 21% · **scored Q4, Q4**
- Rest of the Dolphins: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jaylen Warren 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 43% · no TD
- ⚡ DK Metcalf 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Pat Freiermuth — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 20% · no TD
- Rest of the Steelers: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: Co.Heyward, M.Valdes-Scantling, J.Smith

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Pittsburgh Steelers 1513 · Miami Dolphins 1496 · ELO difference: 18 in favour of Pittsburgh Steelers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Pittsburgh Steelers | Miami Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 42 | 47 | Miami Dolphins +5 |
| Receiving Corps | 48 | 55 | Miami Dolphins +7 |
| Backfield | 61 | 64 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 55 | Even |
| Secondary | 56 | 59 | Even |
| Special Teams | 56 | 61 | Miami Dolphins +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Pittsburgh Steelers predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-16 01:15 UTC (latest tip update)