# Philadelphia Eagles v Las Vegas Raiders — NFL Week 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Philadelphia Eagles 31 – 0 Las Vegas Raiders

_Philadelphia Eagles swoop on Las Vegas Raiders._

Half time: 17 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Philadelphia Eagles 87% / Las Vegas Raiders 13% · Lincoln Financial Field · Mon, 15 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Philadelphia Eagles: Dallas Goedert (8' Tipped ⚡), Saquon Barkley (28' Tipped ⚡), Dallas Goedert (41' Tipped ⚡), A.J. Brown (45') · Las Vegas Raiders: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 87% | Won |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 13% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 17.6 predicted → 31 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Philadelphia Eagles vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 15, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Philadelphia Eagles 31–0 Las Vegas Raiders in NFL Week 15 at Lincoln Financial Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Philadelphia Eagles winning by 17.6 points on a combined total of 35. It picked the right team at 87% confidence. It just didn't picture a shutout.

Eagles 31, Raiders 0 at Lincoln Financial Field is about as clean as these things get. Not a point conceded, not a moment where Las Vegas looked like scoring. The final margin blew past the projection by nearly double, though the total of 31 landed close enough to that pre-match 35, within four points. Read that how you like: the model knew this was going to be one-sided offensively, it just assumed the Raiders would find six points somewhere along the way.

They didn't. Dallas Goedert opened the scoring with 7:55 left in the first quarter, and Philadelphia led 7-0 at the end of it. Saquon Barkley added a touchdown with two minutes left in the second to make it 17-0 at half-time, already a comfortable buffer. Goedert struck again with 4:57 to go in the third, stretching it to 24-0 by the end of the quarter, and A.J. Brown opened the fourth with Philadelphia's final touchdown to make it 30-0 before the extra point sealed 31-0. Four scores, no reply from Las Vegas at any stage.

The stat sheet backs up every bit of it. Philadelphia ran up 391 total yards to Las Vegas's 110, a gap that isn't close in any football sense. Offensive EPA had Philadelphia at 16.2 against a horror figure of minus-17.2 for the Raiders, which tells you snap for snap this was a mismatch, not just a scoreboard one. Barkley led all rushers with 78 yards on 22 carries and a touchdown, part of a 183-yard rushing effort for the team. Jalen Hurts went 12-of-15 for 175 yards and three touchdowns through the air, finding Goedert for six catches, 70 yards and two scores, while Kenny Pickett managed just 64 yards on 15-of-25 with an interception, the Raiders' only turnover of the night.

Pre-match, the positional ratings all pointed one way, just not by margins that scream shutout. Philadelphia held edges at pass rush (59 to 53), secondary (59 to 51) and backfield (43 to 34), modest gaps on paper. On the field the pass rush got home four times to Las Vegas's one, and the Raiders' form line, five straight losses conceding an average of 24.4 points, ran into a defence that didn't let anything through at all. Philadelphia's own recent form was nothing flash either, two wins from five with an average margin of minus-1, so this wasn't a team riding a hot streak into a blowout. It looks more like a performance built fresh on the day than a continuation of anything.

For Las Vegas, there's little to salvage. One sack all game, 10 first downs to Philadelphia's 36, and zero points against a Philadelphia defence that forced the Raiders' only turnover and never let them settle. The model called the winner without much doubt, at 87% probability, and got the total almost exactly right too. The size of the margin was the only part it didn't see coming.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Philadelphia Eagles | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| **391** | Total Yards | 110 |
| **208** | Passing Yards | 64 |
| **183** | Rushing Yards | 46 |
| **36** | First Downs | 10 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **16.2** | Offensive EPA | -17.2 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Philadelphia Eagles to win at 87% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 17.6 but the actual margin was 31 points. Total score prediction of 35 was close to the actual 31, within 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Clay Martin officiated this match (127 career games). The combined score of 31 points was 15 points below Clay Martin's career average of 46. Philadelphia Eagles's victory aligns with Clay Martin's historical trend, Philadelphia Eagles have a 63% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Philadelphia Eagles to win @ $1.10 (edge -4.2%) — model probability 86.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 37.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Philadelphia Eagles by 18 · Predicted total: 35

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Philadelphia Eagles here: 87% to see off Las Vegas Raiders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Philadelphia Eagles sit 328 ELO points clear, 1625 to 1296. Form leans Philadelphia Eagles' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Las Vegas Raiders.

Philadelphia Eagles own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Secondary. The margin model has Philadelphia Eagles by 17.6, with the two sides combining for about 35. Philadelphia Eagles to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Philadelphia Eagles have won 4 of the last 7 between these two, and Philadelphia Eagles took the most recent meeting 31-0 in 2025 Week 15.

Philadelphia Eagles went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 22.3 points for and 19.1 against.

Las Vegas Raiders went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 14.2 points for and 25.4 against.

Jalen Hurts starts under centre for Philadelphia Eagles, Geno Smith for Las Vegas Raiders, with Nick Sirianni and Pete Carroll calling the shots.

The market has Philadelphia Eagles favourites, Philadelphia Eagles $1.10 and Las Vegas Raiders $7.50, with the spread at Philadelphia Eagles -12.5 and the total at 37.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Philadelphia Eagles 4 · Las Vegas Raiders 3 |
| Last meeting | Philadelphia Eagles 31-0 (2025) |
| Philadelphia Eagles 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-3 home |
| Philadelphia Eagles scoring | 22.3 for · 19.1 against |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 away |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 14.2 for · 25.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jalen Hurts · Geno Smith |
| Head coaches | Nick Sirianni · Pete Carroll |
| Market | Philadelphia Eagles $1.10 · Las Vegas Raiders $7.50 |
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -12.5 · total 37.5 |
| Referee | Clay Martin |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Philadelphia Eagles

**Clay Martin** — 127 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Clay Martin | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5W–3L | 63% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0W–5L | 0% |

Avg total: 46.3 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

When Clay Martin officiates, Philadelphia Eagles have won 5 of 8 games (63%), significantly stronger than Las Vegas Raiders's 0 from 5 (0%). Small sample (5 games for Las Vegas Raiders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Philadelphia Eagles | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 16.2pts | Avg Score | 12.8pts |
| 17.2pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| -1.0pts | Avg Margin | -11.6pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | W10 W · W11 W · W12 L · W13 L · W14 L | 16.2 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | W10 L · W11 L · W12 L · W13 L · W14 L | 12.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Philadelphia Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W15 | Philadelphia Eagles | 31 – 0 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2021 | W7 | Las Vegas Raiders | 33 – 22 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2017 | W16 | Philadelphia Eagles | 19 – 10 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2013 | W9 | Las Vegas Raiders | 20 – 49 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2009 | W6 | Las Vegas Raiders | 13 – 9 | Philadelphia Eagles |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lincoln Financial Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jalen Hurts | QB | 8 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 38/47g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.08 AI 21% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Dallas Goedert | TE | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (2·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 15/56g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 29% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' 41' |
| – | Saquon Barkley | RB | 7 in 13g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 16/21g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.97 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' |
| – | A.J. Brown | WR | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·2·0) | 2/1g | 20/33g | 42% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | DeVonta Smith | WR | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 19/43g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Britain Covey | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/19g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darius Cooper | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Grant Calcaterra | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/14g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Kylen Granson | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tank Bigsby | RB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tanner McKee | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Will Shipley | RB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/12g | 3% | — | — |

**Las Vegas Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (3·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Brock Bowers | TE | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 26% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 5 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Michael Mayer | TE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bech | WR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kenny Pickett | QB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Raheem Mostert | RB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Lockett | WR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Brock Bowers 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Raiders: 2 TDs across the team's last 5

**Philadelphia Eagles** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Saquon Barkley 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 44% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ DeVonta Smith 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Dallas Goedert — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 29% · **scored Q1, Q3**
- ⚡ Jalen Hurts — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 21% · no TD
- Rest of the Eagles: 3 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: A.Brown

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Philadelphia Eagles 1625 · Las Vegas Raiders 1296 · ELO difference: 328 in favour of Philadelphia Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Philadelphia Eagles | Las Vegas Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 45 | 43 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 50 | Even |
| Backfield | 43 | 34 | Philadelphia Eagles +9 |
| Pass Rush | 59 | 53 | Philadelphia Eagles +6 |
| Secondary | 59 | 51 | Philadelphia Eagles +8 |
| Special Teams | 56 | 48 | Philadelphia Eagles +8 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 87%** — Philadelphia Eagles predicted to win by 18 points · Predicted total: 35 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-14 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)