# New England Patriots v Buffalo Bills — NFL Week 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New England Patriots 31 – 35 Buffalo Bills

_Buffalo Bills roar back to charge down New England Patriots from 17 down._

Half time: 24 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New England Patriots 48% / Buffalo Bills 52% · Gillette Stadium · Mon, 15 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New England Patriots: Drake Maye (5'), Drake Maye (15'), TreVeyon Henderson (24' Tipped ⚡), TreVeyon Henderson (50' Tipped ⚡) · Buffalo Bills: James Cook (28' Tipped ⚡), Dawson Knox (34'), James Cook (42' Tipped ⚡), Dawson Knox (50'), James Cook (54' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 52% | Won |
| New England Patriots | 48% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.9 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 15, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

New England Patriots 31–35 Buffalo Bills in NFL Week 15 at Gillette Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

New England led by three touchdowns and still found a way to lose it. Buffalo Bills ran down a 24-point deficit to win 35-31 at Gillette Stadium, with James Cook's third touchdown of the night, at 6:53 left in the fourth, proving the last change of lead the Patriots couldn't answer.

The margin looked safe for a long stretch. Drake Maye opened the scoring twice inside the first quarter and New England led 14-0 before the first break. TreVeyon Henderson made it 20-0 midway through the second, and by half-time it was 24-7, a three-score buffer built on 246 rushing yards, with New England doing 61% of their offence on the ground. Buffalo had one answer heading into the sheds: a Cook touchdown with two minutes left in the half.

That's when the chase started in earnest. Dawson Knox scored twice, either side of another Cook touchdown, and Buffalo had clawed it back to 24-21 by the end of the third. The Patriots never got that cushion back. Knox's second major, at 10:10 in the fourth, put Buffalo in front for the first time all game, 27-24. Henderson answered seven seconds of game clock later to retake it for New England, 30-28, his second score of the night. It didn't hold. Cook's third touchdown, with 6:53 to go, put Buffalo up for good.

Buffalo won this despite New England outgaining them 401 yards to 361, and despite New England winning the rushing battle comfortably. What decided it sits in the smaller columns. Josh Allen went 19-of-28 for 193 yards and 3 touchdowns, outproducing Maye's 14-of-23 for 155 and a pick, and that turnover was the only one of the night. New England didn't force one from Buffalo. Add in Buffalo's pass rush getting home three times to New England's two, and it's a clean read on why the Patriots' lead evaporated rather than held. The advanced numbers back it up too: offensive EPA was almost dead level, 12.5 for New England to 12.9 for Buffalo, which is another way of saying the game was closer than the first-half scoreline suggested.

Henderson was the standout for New England regardless of result, 148 yards on just 14 carries to go with his two touchdowns, comfortably the game's top rusher. Khalil Shakir did the quiet work for Buffalo, 5 catches for 65 yards, the kind of target share that keeps a chasing offence on schedule. Cook's hat-trick and Knox

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 14 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 31 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 35 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New England Patriots | Stat | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| **401** | Total Yards | 361 |
| 155 | Passing Yards | **193** |
| **246** | Rushing Yards | 168 |
| 25 | First Downs | **31** |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 2 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| 12.5 | Offensive EPA | **12.9** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Buffalo Bills to win at 52% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Buffalo Bills by 2.9 vs the actual margin of 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

John Hussey officiated this match (181 career games). The combined score of 66 points was 20 points above John Hussey's career average of 46. Buffalo Bills's victory aligns with John Hussey's historical trend, Buffalo Bills have a 50% win rate under this referee. Despite John Hussey's 66% career home-team win rate, the away side Buffalo Bills prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Buffalo Bills to win @ $1.70 (edge -6.9%) — model probability 51.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Buffalo Bills -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Buffalo Bills by 3 · Predicted total: 54

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. The model can't split them, landing on Buffalo Bills at 52%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Buffalo Bills sit 83 ELO points clear, 1643 to 1560. Form leans New England Patriots' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo Bills own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Buffalo Bills by 2.9, with the two sides combining for about 54. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Buffalo Bills have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Buffalo Bills took the most recent meeting 35-31 in 2025 Week 15.

New England Patriots went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 28.8 points for and 18.8 against.

Buffalo Bills went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 28.3 points for and 21.5 against.

Drake Maye starts under centre for New England Patriots, Josh Allen for Buffalo Bills, with Mike Vrabel and Sean McDermott calling the shots.

New England Patriots come in fresher, 13 days between games against 7.

The market has Buffalo Bills favourites, New England Patriots $2.20 and Buffalo Bills $1.70, with the spread at Buffalo Bills -2.5 and the total at 49.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | New England Patriots 4 · Buffalo Bills 8 |
| Last meeting | Buffalo Bills 35-31 (2025) |
| New England Patriots 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-3 home |
| New England Patriots scoring | 28.8 for · 18.8 against |
| Buffalo Bills 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-3 away |
| Buffalo Bills scoring | 28.3 for · 21.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Drake Maye · Josh Allen |
| Head coaches | Mike Vrabel · Sean McDermott |
| Rest | New England Patriots 13d · Buffalo Bills 7d |
| Market | New England Patriots $2.20 · Buffalo Bills $1.70 |
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -2.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | John Hussey |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Buffalo Bills

**John Hussey** — 181 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under John Hussey | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 4W–6L | 40% |
| Buffalo Bills | 6W–6L | 50% |

Avg total: 45.8 pts · Home win %: 66% · Home bias: Leans home

Buffalo Bills hold a 10-point edge: 6W–6L (50%) vs New England Patriots's 4W–6L (40%). Home teams win 66% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New England Patriots | Stat | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 27.6pts | Avg Score | 28.2pts |
| 19.0pts | Avg Conceded | 25.2pts |
| 8.6pts | Avg Margin | 3.0pts |
| 13.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | W9 W · W10 W · W11 W · W12 W · W13 W | 27.6 |
| Buffalo Bills | W10 L · W11 W · W12 L · W13 W · W14 W | 28.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Buffalo Bills lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W15 | New England Patriots | 31 – 35 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2025 | W5 | Buffalo Bills | 20 – 23 | New England Patriots |
| 2024 | W18 | New England Patriots | 23 – 16 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2024 | W16 | Buffalo Bills | 24 – 21 | New England Patriots |
| 2023 | W17 | Buffalo Bills | 27 – 21 | New England Patriots |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gillette Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kayshon Boutte | WR | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 4/14g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 30% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 6 in 13g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·3·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/7g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 50' |
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 14/39g | 24% | — | — |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/20g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 14/30g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Stefon Diggs | WR | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 9/13g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 30% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/13g | 14% | — | 🏉 5' 15' |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Mack Hollins | WR | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/10g | 18% | — | — |

**Buffalo Bills** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Allen | QB | 12 in 13g | 10/10g (1·0·0·2·2·0·3·0·1·1) | 5/14g | 1/6g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.91 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | James Cook | RB | 9 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 4/7g | 2/3g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.91 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' 42' 54' |
| – | Dalton Kincaid | TE | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Khalil Shakir | WR | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Hawes | TE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Ray Davis | RB | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Ty Johnson | RB | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/5g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Dawson Knox | TE | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 1/5g | 12% | — | 🏉 34' 50' |
| – | Brandin Cooks | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 5/10g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Josh Palmer | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Reggie Gilliam | RB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Buffalo Bills** (3 picks)
- ⚡ James Cook 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 44% · **scored Q2, Q3, Q4**
- ⚡ Josh Allen 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- ⚡ Dalton Kincaid 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- Rest of the Bills: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Knox

**New England Patriots** (3 picks)
- ⚡ TreVeyon Henderson 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 39% · **scored Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Stefon Diggs — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Kayshon Boutte — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- Rest of the Patriots: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Maye

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New England Patriots 1560 · Buffalo Bills 1643 · ELO difference: 83 in favour of Buffalo Bills

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New England Patriots | Buffalo Bills | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 63 | 71 | Buffalo Bills +8 |
| Receiving Corps | 64 | 57 | New England Patriots +7 |
| Backfield | 59 | 49 | New England Patriots +10 |
| Pass Rush | 44 | 46 | Even |
| Secondary | 54 | 58 | Even |
| Special Teams | 63 | 58 | New England Patriots +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | New England Patriots |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Buffalo Bills predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 54 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-14 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)