# Los Angeles Rams v Detroit Lions — NFL Week 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Los Angeles Rams 41 – 34 Detroit Lions

_Los Angeles Rams fight back to ram past Detroit Lions._

Half time: 17 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Los Angeles Rams 69% / Detroit Lions 31% · SoFi Stadium · Mon, 15 Dec, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams (13' Tipped ⚡), Kyren Williams (22' Tipped ⚡), Colby Parkinson (43'), Blake Corum (45'), Colby Parkinson (56') · Detroit Lions: Amon-Ra St. Brown (7' Tipped ⚡), Amon-Ra St. Brown (24' Tipped ⚡), Jameson Williams (30' Tipped ⚡), David Montgomery (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 69% | Won |
| Detroit Lions | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.6 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Los Angeles Rams vs Detroit Lions Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 15, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Dec 2025, 08:25 am_

Los Angeles Rams 41–34 Detroit Lions in NFL Week 15 at SoFi Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Detroit led 24-17 at the break, and for a half it looked like the Lions' game to lose. Then Los Angeles ripped off two touchdowns in the space of two minutes late in the third quarter, Colby Parkinson at the 2:32 mark and Blake Corum at 0:33, and the Rams walked out of that quarter up 34-24. That burst was the whole game.

Final score: Los Angeles Rams 41, Detroit Lions 34. Detroit had the better start, Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St Brown doing damage early, but the Rams simply had more scoring in them once the third quarter arrived, and Parkinson struck again in the fourth to make it 40-27 before Detroit's David Montgomery got one back late. By then it was too little too late.

The stat sheet backs up how one-sided the underlying game was, even with the scoreboard close. Los Angeles put up 527 total yards to Detroit's 408, and did it despite losing the turnover battle, one giveaway to none. Offensive EPA had the Rams at 13.6 against 9.7 for Detroit, which is a fair way of saying LA's offence was simply more efficient every time it touched the ball.

Where the Rams really won it was on the ground. 159 rushing yards to Detroit's 70 is not a small gap, and Kyren Williams led all rushers with 78 yards on just 15 carries plus 2 touchdowns. Through the air it was Matthew Stafford going 24-of-38 for 368 yards and 2 scores against 1 interception, with Puka Nacua the game's top target on 9 catches for 181 yards. Jared Goff matched him for volume, 25-of-41 for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns, but Detroit's pass rush only got home twice while conceding one more sack than they registered themselves.

Detroit's backfield rating actually came into this game as the stronger positional group, 86 to the Rams' 69, and Detroit's special teams rated well ahead too, 72 to 61. Neither showed up where it mattered. Montgomery got his touchdown, but 70 rushing yards as a team is nowhere near enough when the other side is running for more than double that. St Brown did his job with two touchdowns of his own, and Jameson Williams' score kept Detroit in front at the half, but three of Detroit's four touchdowns came through the air against a Rams secondary rated a touch higher, 67 to 62.

Los Angeles came in on a four-from-five run, Detroit three from five, and the form gap showed in the

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 7 | 10 | 17 | 7 | 41 |
| Detroit Lions | 7 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 34 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Los Angeles Rams | Stat | Detroit Lions |
|---|---|---|
| **527** | Total Yards | 408 |
| **368** | Passing Yards | 338 |
| **159** | Rushing Yards | 70 |
| **48** | First Downs | 37 |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| **13.6** | Offensive EPA | 9.7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Los Angeles Rams to win at 69% probability. The predicted margin of 0.6 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. The game's 75 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 54. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alan Eck officiated this match (49 career games). The combined score of 75 points was 31 points above Alan Eck's career average of 44. Los Angeles Rams's home victory fits Alan Eck's profile, home teams win 67% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.41 (edge -2.2%) — model probability 68.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Detroit Lions +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 1 · Predicted total: 54

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Los Angeles Rams here: 69% to see off Detroit Lions. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Rams sit 26 ELO points clear, 1664 to 1638. Form leans Los Angeles Rams' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Detroit Lions.

Los Angeles Rams own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Los Angeles Rams to win, not to win big.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Los Angeles Rams taking the most recent 41-34 in 2025 Week 15.

Los Angeles Rams went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-1 at home, averaging 30.5 points for and 20.4 against.

Detroit Lions went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 28.3 points for and 24.3 against.

Matthew Stafford starts under centre for Los Angeles Rams, Jared Goff for Detroit Lions, with Sean McVay and Dan Campbell calling the shots.

Detroit Lions come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Los Angeles Rams favourites, Los Angeles Rams $1.41 and Detroit Lions $3.00, with the spread at Los Angeles Rams -5.5 and the total at 54.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Los Angeles Rams 6 · Detroit Lions 6 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Rams 41-34 (2025) |
| Los Angeles Rams 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-1 home |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 30.5 for · 20.4 against |
| Detroit Lions 2025 so far | 9-8 · 4-5 away |
| Detroit Lions scoring | 28.3 for · 24.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Matthew Stafford · Jared Goff |
| Head coaches | Sean McVay · Dan Campbell |
| Rest | Los Angeles Rams 7d · Detroit Lions 10d |
| Market | Los Angeles Rams $1.41 · Detroit Lions $3.00 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -5.5 · total 54.5 |
| Referee | Alan Eck |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Alan Eck** — 49 career games since 2023.

| Team | Record under Alan Eck | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 1W–0L | 100% |
| Detroit Lions | 2W–0L | 100% |

Avg total: 44.2 pts · Home win %: 67% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Alan Eck, Los Angeles Rams 1W–0L (100%) and Detroit Lions 2W–0L (100%). Home teams win 67% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (1 games for Los Angeles Rams).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Rams | Stat | Detroit Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 34.0pts | Avg Score | 31.0pts |
| 20.0pts | Avg Conceded | 25.2pts |
| 14.0pts | Avg Margin | 5.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | W10 W · W11 W · W12 W · W13 L · W14 W | 34.0 |
| Detroit Lions | W10 W · W11 L · W12 W · W13 L · W14 W | 31.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Rams lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W15 | Los Angeles Rams | 41 – 34 | Detroit Lions |
| 2024 | W1 | Detroit Lions | 26 – 20 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2023 | WC | Detroit Lions | 24 – 23 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2021 | W7 | Los Angeles Rams | 28 – 19 | Detroit Lions |
| 2018 | W13 | Detroit Lions | 16 – 30 | Los Angeles Rams |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 14 in 13g | 12/10g (1·0·0·3·2·1·1·2·2·0) | 6/10g | 7/10g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.62 AI 45% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 11 in 13g | 9/10g (0·2·1·0·1·2·1·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 22/25g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.98 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 13' 22' |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 9/19g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.88 AI 41% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/14g | 13% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 2/17g | 24% | — | 🏉 43' 56' |
| – | Davis Allen | TE | 3 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/11g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Konata Mumpfield | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Terrance Ferguson | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Tutu Atwell | WR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 3/26g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Whittington | WR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/38g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ronnie Rivers | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |

**Detroit Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 16 in 13g | 13/10g (1·1·0·2·0·3·0·3·0·3) | 2/2g | 2/1g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.61 AI 58% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 9 in 13g | 5/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/1g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' 24' |
| – | David Montgomery | RB | 7 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/5g | 2/3g | 58% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Jameson Williams | WR | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 35% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $16.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| – | Isaac TeSlaa | WR | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Kalif Raymond | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Giovanni Ricci | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jared Goff | QB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/9g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sione Vaki | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Kennedy | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Detroit Lions** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jahmyr Gibbs 🎯 — 9 TDs in last 5 (7 rush · 2 pass) · model 58% · no TD
- ⚡ Amon-Ra St. Brown 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 36% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- ⚡ Jameson Williams 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 35% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Lions: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Montgomery

**Los Angeles Rams** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 55% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- ⚡ Davante Adams — 6 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 6 pass) · model 45% · no TD
- ⚡ Puka Nacua — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- Rest of the Rams: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Parkinson, B.Corum

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Rams 1664 · Detroit Lions 1638 · ELO difference: 26 in favour of Los Angeles Rams

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Rams | Detroit Lions | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 70 | 63 | Los Angeles Rams +7 |
| Receiving Corps | 60 | 54 | Los Angeles Rams +6 |
| Backfield | 69 | 86 | Detroit Lions +17 |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 54 | Even |
| Secondary | 67 | 62 | Los Angeles Rams +5 |
| Special Teams | 61 | 72 | Detroit Lions +11 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Detroit Lions |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Los Angeles Rams predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 54 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-14 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)