# Jacksonville Jaguars v New York Jets — NFL Week 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Jacksonville Jaguars 48 – 20 New York Jets

_Jacksonville Jaguars put New York Jets to the sword._

Half time: 31 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 98% / New York Jets 2% · TIAA Bank Stadium · Mon, 15 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Jacksonville Jaguars: Thomas (5'), Trevor Lawrence (9'), Bhayshul Tuten (16'), Travis Etienne (30' Tipped ⚡), Travis Etienne (38' Tipped ⚡), Travis Etienne (47' Tipped ⚡) · New York Jets: Adonai Mitchell (14'), Isaiah Davis (46')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 98% | Won |
| New York Jets | 2% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 25.3 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Jets Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 15, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Jacksonville Jaguars 48–20 New York Jets in NFL Week 15 at TIAA Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Jacksonville had this game decided before most punters had finished their first beer. Two touchdowns inside the opening six minutes, Brian Thomas Jr. then Trevor Lawrence himself, and by the 1:51 mark of the first quarter the Jaguars led 14-0. New York Jets got one back through Adonai Mitchell to make it 14-6, but that was as close as the scoreboard ever got.

From there it was one-way traffic. Bhayshul Tuten made it 20-7 early in the second, Travis Etienne scored with 27 seconds left before the break to push it to 30-10, and Jacksonville walked into the sheds up 31-10. A 21-point burst across the back end of the first half is the kind of thing that ends contests, and this one stayed ended. Etienne struck twice more in the third and fourth quarters, the Jets managed a late Isaiah Davis score to make the margin look slightly more respectable, and the final whistle read 48-20.

The full-time gap of 28 points actually beat Alphr's pre-match projection of 25.3, which itself already had Jacksonville as overwhelming 98% favourites off ELO ratings of 1534 to 1342. What the model didn't quite see coming was the total: 68 combined points against a projected 41, a blowout that somehow still turned into a shootout for three quarters.

The stat sheet backs up exactly what the scoreboard suggests. Jacksonville outgained New York 438 yards to 306, doubled them up through the air 330 to 176, and got home on the pass rush three times to nil. Offensive EPA read +18.3 for the Jaguars against -10.7 for the Jets, a swing of nearly 29 points of expected value that lines up neatly with the margin. New York's rushing total, 130 to 108, was the one column where they had the edge, and it barely mattered.

Trevor Lawrence went 20-of-32 for 330 yards and five touchdowns through the air, on top of the one he ran in himself. Etienne was the headline act regardless, three catches for 73 yards and three touchdowns, the kind of afternoon that makes a backfield-versus-backfield rating of 52 to 47 look conservative. Brady Cook, in for the Jets, threw for 176 yards on 22-of-33 with a touchdown and three interceptions, and three turnovers against Jacksonville's one told most of the story on its own. Isaiah Davis was New York's best offensive piece, 58 yards on nine carries and a score, but one good runner doesn't cover for a secondary that let Lawrence pick it apart.

Form lines pointed this way before kickoff. Jacksonville arrived on a four-game winning run averaging 30.4 points a game, New York limped in

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 14 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 48 |
| New York Jets | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| **438** | Total Yards | 306 |
| **330** | Passing Yards | 176 |
| 108 | Rushing Yards | **130** |
| **38** | First Downs | 28 |
| **1** | Turnovers | 3 |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **18.3** | Offensive EPA | -10.7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Jacksonville Jaguars to win at 98% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Jacksonville Jaguars by 25.3 vs the actual margin of 28 points. The game's 68 points came in 27 points higher than the predicted 41. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Smith officiated this match (129 career games). The combined score of 68 points was 21 points above Shawn Smith's career average of 47. Jacksonville Jaguars's victory aligns with Shawn Smith's historical trend, Jacksonville Jaguars have a 36% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $1.10 (edge +6.2%) — model probability 97.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Jacksonville Jaguars -13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Jacksonville Jaguars here: 98% to see off New York Jets. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Jacksonville Jaguars sit 191 ELO points clear, 1534 to 1342. Form leans Jacksonville Jaguars' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for New York Jets.

Jacksonville Jaguars own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Jacksonville Jaguars by 25.3, with the two sides combining for about 41. Jacksonville Jaguars to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Jacksonville Jaguars taking the most recent 48-20 in 2025 Week 15.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 13-4 in 2025 so far, 7-2 at home, averaging 27.9 points for and 19.8 against.

New York Jets went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 17.6 points for and 29.6 against.

Trevor Lawrence starts under centre for Jacksonville Jaguars, Tyrod Taylor for New York Jets, with Liam Coen and Aaron Glenn calling the shots.

The market has Jacksonville Jaguars favourites, Jacksonville Jaguars $1.10 and New York Jets $7.75, with the spread at Jacksonville Jaguars -13.5 and the total at 40.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Jacksonville Jaguars 6 · New York Jets 6 |
| Last meeting | Jacksonville Jaguars 48-20 (2025) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 so far | 13-4 · 7-2 home |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 27.9 for · 19.8 against |
| New York Jets 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 away |
| New York Jets scoring | 17.6 for · 29.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Trevor Lawrence · Tyrod Taylor |
| Head coaches | Liam Coen · Aaron Glenn |
| Market | Jacksonville Jaguars $1.10 · New York Jets $7.75 |
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars -13.5 · total 40.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Smith |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Jacksonville Jaguars

**Shawn Smith** — 129 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4W–7L | 36% |
| New York Jets | 2W–5L | 29% |

Avg total: 47.3 pts · Home win %: 50% · Home bias: Neutral

Jacksonville Jaguars hold a 7-point edge: 4W–7L (36%) vs New York Jets's 2W–5L (29%). Small sample (7 games for New York Jets).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 30.4pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 17.6pts | Avg Conceded | 25.6pts |
| 12.8pts | Avg Margin | -8.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W10 L · W11 W · W12 W · W13 W · W14 W | 30.4 |
| New York Jets | W10 W · W11 L · W12 L · W13 W · W14 L | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Jacksonville Jaguars lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W15 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 48 – 20 | New York Jets |
| 2024 | W15 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 25 – 32 | New York Jets |
| 2022 | W16 | New York Jets | 3 – 19 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2021 | W16 | New York Jets | 26 – 21 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2019 | W8 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 29 – 15 | New York Jets |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at TIAA Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Travis Etienne | RB | 9 in 13g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·2) | 0/2g | 14/29g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.63 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.30 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' 38' 47' |
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 35% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 4/14g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.20 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 9/34g | 22% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/9g | 1/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 8/13g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | — |
| – | Brenton Strange | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/15g | 13% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.70 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Dyami Brown | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Mullens | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Quintin Morris | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 7% | — | — |

**New York Jets** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Breece Hall | RB | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Isaiah Williams | WR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | John Metchie III | WR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Adonai Mitchell | WR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 5% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Allen Lazard | WR | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Beck | RB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Ruckert | TE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Arian Smith | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brady Cook | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Davis | RB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Khalil Herbert | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Stone Smartt | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Jets** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Breece Hall 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- Rest of the Jets: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: A.Mitchell, I.Davis

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Travis Etienne 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 1 pass) · model 54% · **scored Q2, Q3, Q4**
- ⚡ Jakobi Meyers 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Brian Thomas Jr. 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Parker Washington — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Brenton Strange — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Jaguars: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Lawrence, B.Tuten

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Jacksonville Jaguars 1534 · New York Jets 1342 · ELO difference: 191 in favour of Jacksonville Jaguars

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Jacksonville Jaguars | New York Jets | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 50 | 5 | Jacksonville Jaguars +45 |
| Receiving Corps | 58 | 45 | Jacksonville Jaguars +13 |
| Backfield | 52 | 47 | Jacksonville Jaguars +5 |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 58 | New York Jets +5 |
| Secondary | 58 | 51 | Jacksonville Jaguars +7 |
| Special Teams | 69 | 55 | Jacksonville Jaguars +14 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New York Jets |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 98%** — Jacksonville Jaguars predicted to win by 25 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-14 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)