# Denver Broncos v Green Bay Packers — NFL Week 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Denver Broncos 34 – 26 Green Bay Packers

_Denver Broncos surge back to stampede past Green Bay Packers._

Half time: 14 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Denver Broncos 69% / Green Bay Packers 31% · Empower Field at Mile High · Mon, 15 Dec, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Denver Broncos: Michael Bandy (22'), Lil'Jordan Humphrey (28'), Courtland Sutton (36' Tipped ⚡), Troy Franklin (45' Tipped ⚡), RJ Harvey (53' Tipped ⚡) · Green Bay Packers: Josh Jacobs (26' Tipped ⚡), Josh Jacobs (31' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 69% | Won |
| Green Bay Packers | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.5 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 15, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Dec 2025, 08:25 am_

Denver Broncos 34–26 Green Bay Packers in NFL Week 15 at Empower Field at Mile High. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had this one at Denver Broncos by 4.5, with 45 combined points expected by the final whistle. Neither number held up. Denver won by 8, and the two sides put up 60 between them, 15 more than the model foresaw. The one call that did age well was the 69% win probability stamped on the Broncos before kickoff.

That gap between forecast and outcome is really the story of this game, and it starts with how tight things were early. Green Bay led 3-0 at the end of the first quarter, then the second turned into a shootout. Michael Bandy pulled Denver level at 6-6 with 8:26 left in the half, Josh Jacobs answered straight back to put the Packers up 12-6, and Lil'Jordan Humphrey tied it again at 13-13 with two minutes on the clock. Green Bay closed the half with a score to lead 16-14 at the break, a scoreline nobody watching the pre-match numbers would have picked given Denver's rating edge in pass rush and special teams.

The third quarter is where the model's read on team strength started to show up on the scoreboard. Jacobs got his second touchdown early, stretching Green Bay's lead to 22-14, but Denver responded through Courtland Sutton to cut it to 23-20, then Troy Franklin scored with six seconds left in the quarter to flip the lead to Denver, 27-23. That's three touchdowns in one quarter for Denver's offence, against a Packers defence that had looked composed all night. RJ Harvey put it to bed in the fourth, scoring with 7:32 remaining to make it 33-26, and Denver added the extra point to close it out 34-26.

The numbers explain why Denver deserved it even with the scoreboard so tight for three quarters. Total yards were dead level at 391 apiece, but Denver did more with theirs: 302 passing yards to Green Bay's 276, and an offensive EPA of 8.6 versus just 1.4 for the Packers. That's the efficiency story right there. Denver also picked up 34 first downs to Green Bay's 29, and their pass rush got home three times without conceding a sack in return.

Turnovers were the difference the model would point to first. Green Bay coughed it up twice to Denver's once, and Jordan Love's two interceptions loom large in a game decided by 8 points. Love finished 24-of-40 for 276 yards and a touchdown, solid enough on paper, but the picks cost his side field position and chances they couldn't afford to waste. Bo Nix was the tidier operator, going 23-of-34 for 302 yards and four touchdowns without the same costly errors.

On the ground, Josh Jacobs was Green Bay's best player by some margin, 73 yards on 12 carries and two touchdowns, doing more with less support than Denver's rushing attack managed collectively at 89 yards. Denver's damage instead came through the air and through spreading the ball around: five different players found the end zone, Sutton the headline act with 7 catches for 113 yards and a score.

Going in, Green Bay actually rated higher at quarterback, receiving corps and backfield, and they carried a stronger scoring average over their last five games too. But Denver's edges in pass rush and special teams, plus a five-game unbeaten run to Green Bay's one loss in the same stretch, were enough for Alphr's model to lean Broncos. It got the winner right and had the margin close enough not to embarrass itself. The total was the one thing nobody saw coming, not with both defences finishing this open.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 0 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 34 |
| Green Bay Packers | 3 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| 391 | Total Yards | 391 |
| **302** | Passing Yards | 276 |
| 89 | Rushing Yards | **115** |
| **34** | First Downs | 29 |
| **1** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **8.6** | Offensive EPA | 1.4 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Denver Broncos to win at 69% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Denver Broncos by 4.5 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The game's 60 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 45. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Rogers officiated this match (92 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 14 points above Brad Rogers's career average of 46. Denver Broncos bucked the trend, Green Bay Packers historically win 80% of games under Brad Rogers, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $2.02 (edge +19.9%) — model probability 69.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Denver Broncos +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 5 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Denver Broncos here: 69% to see off Green Bay Packers. Form leans Denver Broncos' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Green Bay Packers.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Denver Broncos by 4.5, with the two sides combining for about 45. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Denver Broncos to win, not to win big.

The recent history is even: 4 wins each from the last 8 meetings, Denver Broncos taking the most recent 34-26 in 2025 Week 15.

Denver Broncos went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 at home, averaging 23.6 points for and 18.3 against.

Green Bay Packers went 9-7-1 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 23.0 points for and 21.2 against.

Bo Nix starts under centre for Denver Broncos, Jordan Love for Green Bay Packers, with Sean Payton and Matt LaFleur calling the shots.

The market has Green Bay Packers favourites, Denver Broncos $2.02 and Green Bay Packers $1.82, with the spread at Green Bay Packers -1.5 and the total at 42.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Denver Broncos 4 · Green Bay Packers 4 |
| Last meeting | Denver Broncos 34-26 (2025) |
| Denver Broncos 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 home |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 23.6 for · 18.3 against |
| Green Bay Packers 2025 so far | 9-7-1 · 4-5 away |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 23.0 for · 21.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Bo Nix · Jordan Love |
| Head coaches | Sean Payton · Matt LaFleur |
| Market | Denver Broncos $2.02 · Green Bay Packers $1.82 |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -1.5 · total 42.5 |
| Referee | Brad Rogers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Green Bay Packers

**Brad Rogers** — 92 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Brad Rogers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 0W–5L | 0% |
| Green Bay Packers | 4W–1L | 80% |

Avg total: 45.7 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Rogers officiates, Green Bay Packers have won 4 of 5 games (80%), significantly stronger than Denver Broncos's 0 from 5 (0%). Small sample (5 games for Denver Broncos).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 20.2pts | Avg Score | 23.2pts |
| 16.8pts | Avg Conceded | 16.2pts |
| 3.4pts | Avg Margin | 7.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | W9 W · W10 W · W11 W · W13 W · W14 W | 20.2 |
| Green Bay Packers | W10 L · W11 W · W12 W · W13 W · W14 W | 23.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Denver Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W15 | Denver Broncos | 34 – 26 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2023 | W7 | Denver Broncos | 19 – 17 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2019 | W3 | Green Bay Packers | 27 – 16 | Denver Broncos |
| 2015 | W8 | Denver Broncos | 29 – 10 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2011 | W4 | Green Bay Packers | 49 – 23 | Denver Broncos |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Empower Field at Mile High. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 9 in 13g | 9/10g (1·0·0·1·3·1·0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 5/6g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 53' |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 16/45g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 28% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' |
| – | Troy Franklin | WR | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/14g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.40 AI 28% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 5/14g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 6/21g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/18g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Adam Prentice | RB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lil'Jordan Humphrey | WR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/13g | 14% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Michael Bandy | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 22' |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 4% | — | — |

**Green Bay Packers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Jacobs | RB | 12 in 12g | 10/10g (0·2·2·2·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 9/8g | 3/4g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.99 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.90 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' 31' |
| – | Christian Watson | WR | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 19% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.00 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Dontayvion Wicks | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Reed | WR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 33% | — | — |
| – | John FitzPatrick | TE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Love | QB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Luke Musgrave | TE | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Golden | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Green Bay Packers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Josh Jacobs 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 51% · **scored Q2, Q3**
- ⚡ Christian Watson — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- ⚡ Emanuel Wilson — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Packers: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

**Denver Broncos** (3 picks)
- ⚡ RJ Harvey 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 32% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Troy Franklin 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Broncos: 3 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Bandy, L.Humphrey

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Denver Broncos 1651 · Green Bay Packers 1662 · ELO difference: 11 in favour of Green Bay Packers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Denver Broncos | Green Bay Packers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 52 | 62 | Green Bay Packers +10 |
| Receiving Corps | 46 | 52 | Green Bay Packers +6 |
| Backfield | 52 | 59 | Green Bay Packers +7 |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 51 | Denver Broncos +7 |
| Secondary | 57 | 56 | Even |
| Special Teams | 65 | 56 | Denver Broncos +9 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | — |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Denver Broncos predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-14 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)