# Dallas Cowboys v Minnesota Vikings — NFL Week 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dallas Cowboys 26 – 34 Minnesota Vikings

_Minnesota Vikings plunder Dallas Cowboys._

Half time: 17 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dallas Cowboys 58% / Minnesota Vikings 42% · AT&T Stadium · Mon, 15 Dec, 12:20 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Dallas Cowboys: Javonte Williams (7' Tipped ⚡), Malik Davis (16') · Minnesota Vikings: Jalen Nailor (13'), J.J. McCarthy (21'), C.J. Ham (44'), Jalen Nailor (51')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 58% | Lost |
| Minnesota Vikings | 42% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.2 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 15, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Dec 2025, 12:20 pm_

Dallas Cowboys 26–34 Minnesota Vikings in NFL Week 15 at AT&T Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Tied at 23 with 1:14 to go in the third quarter, this one was still up for grabs. C.J. Ham's touchdown had just levelled it, and for a moment it looked like Dallas might have weathered the storm. They hadn't. Minnesota closed the quarter ahead 24-23, then blew it open in the fourth when Jalen Nailor scored his second touchdown of the night with 9:16 left, making it 30-23. Dallas clawed back to 26-30 but never got the ball back with a chance to win it. Final score: Vikings 34, Cowboys 26, at AT&T Stadium.

The first half was dead even. Javonte Williams put Dallas up early, Jalen Nailor answered before the first quarter was out, and the sides traded scores right through the second: Malik Davis for Dallas, J.J. McCarthy for Minnesota. At the break it was locked at 17-17, and nothing in the stat sheet suggested one side had it in hand.

That's what makes the result odd on paper. Dallas finished with 432 total yards to Minnesota's 327, a gap of more than 100 yards. They out-rushed the Vikings 138 to 77 and out-passed them 294 to 250. They also had 36 first downs to Minnesota's 29, and didn't turn the ball over once. Minnesota gave it away one time. By the usual measures, Dallas should have won comfortably.

They didn't, because the plays that mattered went Minnesota's way. Nailor's brace of touchdowns bookended a night where the Vikings made their moments count and Dallas's yardage advantage never translated into a scoreboard lead that stuck. Offensive EPA tells the same story as the final margin, not the yardage: Minnesota finished at 10.4 to Dallas's 7.7, meaning their plays were simply more valuable when it counted.

Individually, Dak Prescott was solid without being spectacular, going 23-of-38 for 294 yards. J.J. McCarthy, starting for Minnesota, matched him for damage on fewer attempts: 15-of-24 for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 1 interception. Javonte Williams was the best player on the field in the

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 26 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 34 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dallas Cowboys | Stat | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| **432** | Total Yards | 327 |
| **294** | Passing Yards | 250 |
| **138** | Rushing Yards | 77 |
| **36** | First Downs | 29 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| 7.7 | Offensive EPA | **10.4** |

**Model Report Card**

Minnesota Vikings defied the model's 58% prediction for Dallas Cowboys, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.2 but the actual margin was 8 points. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

**Referee Watch**

Scott Novak officiated this match (111 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 15 points above Scott Novak's career average of 45. Minnesota Vikings's victory aligns with Scott Novak's historical trend, Minnesota Vikings have a 63% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dallas Cowboys to win @ $1.38 (edge -14.5%) — model probability 58.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dallas Cowboys -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dallas Cowboys by 7 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dallas Cowboys are the call at 58%, but Minnesota Vikings stay live at 42%. Form leans Dallas Cowboys' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Minnesota Vikings.

Dallas Cowboys own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Quarterback, Recent Form and Rest Advantage. The margin model has Dallas Cowboys by 7.2, with the two sides combining for about 48. Lean Dallas Cowboys, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Minnesota Vikings taking the most recent 34-26 in 2025 Week 15.

Dallas Cowboys went 7-9-1 in 2025 so far, 4-4 at home, averaging 27.7 points for and 30.1 against.

Minnesota Vikings went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 20.2 points for and 19.6 against.

Dak Prescott starts under centre for Dallas Cowboys, J.J. McCarthy for Minnesota Vikings, with Brian Schottenheimer and Kevin O'Connell calling the shots.

Dallas Cowboys come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Dallas Cowboys favourites, Dallas Cowboys $1.38 and Minnesota Vikings $3.15, with the spread at Dallas Cowboys -5.5 and the total at 47.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Dallas Cowboys 6 · Minnesota Vikings 6 |
| Last meeting | Minnesota Vikings 34-26 (2025) |
| Dallas Cowboys 2025 so far | 7-9-1 · 4-4 home |
| Dallas Cowboys scoring | 27.7 for · 30.1 against |
| Minnesota Vikings 2025 so far | 9-8 · 5-4 away |
| Minnesota Vikings scoring | 20.2 for · 19.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Dak Prescott · J.J. McCarthy |
| Head coaches | Brian Schottenheimer · Kevin O'Connell |
| Rest | Dallas Cowboys 10d · Minnesota Vikings 7d |
| Market | Dallas Cowboys $1.38 · Minnesota Vikings $3.15 |
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys -5.5 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Scott Novak |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Minnesota Vikings

**Scott Novak** — 111 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Scott Novak | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 3W–4L | 43% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 5W–3L | 63% |

Avg total: 45.2 pts · Home win %: 47% · Home bias: Leans away

When Scott Novak officiates, Minnesota Vikings have won 5 of 8 games (63%), significantly stronger than Dallas Cowboys's 3 from 7 (43%). Small sample (7 games for Dallas Cowboys).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dallas Cowboys | Stat | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 27.0pts | Avg Score | 14.6pts |
| 27.2pts | Avg Conceded | 19.0pts |
| -0.2pts | Avg Margin | -4.4pts |
| 10.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | W9 L · W11 W · W12 W · W13 W · W14 L | 27.0 |
| Minnesota Vikings | W10 L · W11 L · W12 L · W13 L · W14 W | 14.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dallas Cowboys lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W15 | Dallas Cowboys | 26 – 34 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2022 | W11 | Minnesota Vikings | 3 – 40 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2021 | W8 | Minnesota Vikings | 16 – 20 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2020 | W11 | Minnesota Vikings | 28 – 31 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2019 | W10 | Dallas Cowboys | 24 – 28 | Minnesota Vikings |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AT&T Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dallas Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Javonte Williams | RB | 11 in 13g | 8/10g (1·2·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 4/7g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.90 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' |
| – | George Pickens | WR | 8 in 13g | 6/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/6g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 40% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jake Ferguson | TE | 7 in 13g | 7/10g (1·2·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 11/28g | 30% | — | — |
| – | CeeDee Lamb | WR | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 27/47g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ryan Flournoy | WR | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/12g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Dak Prescott | QB | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 24/71g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Brevyn Spann-Ford | TE | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/11g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Luepke | RB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/15g | 7% | — | — |
| – | KaVontae Turpin | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/32g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Malik Davis | RB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/6g | 13% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Jonathan Mingo | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Schoonmaker | TE | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/21g | 7% | — | — |

**Minnesota Vikings** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jordan Mason | RB | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Josh Oliver | TE | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Addison | WR | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | T.J. Hockenson | TE | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Aaron Jones | RB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/4g | 8/3g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | J.J. McCarthy | QB | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Jalen Nailor | WR | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 13' 51' |
| – | Justin Jefferson | WR | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | C.J. Ham | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Myles Price | WR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Minnesota Vikings** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Aaron Jones 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Justin Jefferson — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 25% · no TD
- ⚡ Jordan Addison — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- Rest of the Vikings: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Nailor, J.McCarthy, C.Ham

**Dallas Cowboys** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Javonte Williams 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 43% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ George Pickens 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 40% · no TD
- ⚡ CeeDee Lamb 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- Rest of the Cowboys: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Davis

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dallas Cowboys 1496 · Minnesota Vikings 1492 · ELO difference: 5 in favour of Dallas Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Dallas Cowboys | Minnesota Vikings | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 60 | 31 | Dallas Cowboys +29 |
| Receiving Corps | 58 | 46 | Dallas Cowboys +12 |
| Backfield | 47 | 48 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 54 | 59 | Minnesota Vikings +5 |
| Secondary | 48 | 49 | Even |
| Special Teams | 73 | 54 | Dallas Cowboys +19 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | — |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Dallas Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Dallas Cowboys predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-15 01:20 UTC (latest tip update)