# Cincinnati Bengals v Baltimore Ravens — NFL Week 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cincinnati Bengals 0 – 24 Baltimore Ravens

_Baltimore Ravens swoop on Cincinnati Bengals._

Half time: 0 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cincinnati Bengals 36% / Baltimore Ravens 64% · Paycor Stadium · Mon, 15 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Cincinnati Bengals: none · Baltimore Ravens: Rasheen Ali (26'), Zay Flowers (30' Tipped ⚡), Alohi Gilman (53')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 64% | Won |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.3 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 15, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Cincinnati Bengals 0–24 Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 15 at Paycor Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Cincinnati went into the sheds at Paycor Stadium down 14-0, and nothing about the second half suggested a way back. Baltimore added a field goal through the third quarter to make it 17-0, then Adam Gilman's touchdown with 7:55 left in the fourth turned a bad night into a rout. Final score: Ravens 24, Bengals 0.

The story was set early. Rasheen Ali got the Ravens on the board with 4:42 left in the second quarter, Zay Flowers added another with 29 seconds on the clock before the break, and Cincinnati never found an answer. Kept off the scoreboard for four full quarters, which is about as blunt a summary as a stat line gets.

Look at the raw numbers and it's actually close: 339 total yards for Baltimore against 325 for Cincinnati, and the Bengals even led first downs 26 to 21. But offensive EPA tells the real story, Baltimore at plus 5.3, Cincinnati at minus 21.9. That is a 27.2-point gap in efficiency, and it is why a game that looked competitive on the yardage sheet finished as a shutout.

Baltimore built the win on the ground. Derrick Henry carried 11 times for 100 yards, and the Ravens ran for 189 in total, 56 per cent of their output. That was always the matchup risk. Cincinnati's backfield rating going in was 51 to Baltimore's 58, the one spot on the field where the Ravens held the positional edge, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect.

Through the air, Joe Burrow threw for more yards than Lamar Jackson, 225 to 150 on 25-of-39 work, with Ja'Marr Chase doing his part at 10 catches for 132. But Burrow also threw two interceptions, and Jackson turned his more modest 8-of-12 outing into two touchdowns with only one pick. Cincinnati lost the turnover battle 2 to 1, and against a defence playing with a lead, that is the kind of number that ends a night early.

Cincinnati's pass rush was arguably the one thing that outperformed its billing, getting home four times to Baltimore's three despite a quarterback rating advantage of 56 to 42 favouring the Bengals coming in. It didn't matter. Form lines told part of the tale too: Baltimore arrived with three wins from five, Cincinnati with one, and while neither side's average points differential predicted a shutout, the Ravens' defence conceding 20.8 a game against Cincinnati's 32 gave a hint of which side had more margin for error.

Alphr's model had Baltimore favourites at 64 per cent, expecting a 7.3-point win in a game worth 51 combined points. It got the winner right and undersold the gap badly, missing the margin by close to 17 points and the total by 27. Wins and misses, all of it. The shape of the game, Baltimore controlling the ground and forcing the Bengals into mistakes, was there in the pre-match reads. The scale of it wasn't.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 0 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cincinnati Bengals | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| 325 | Total Yards | **339** |
| **225** | Passing Yards | 150 |
| 100 | Rushing Yards | **189** |
| **26** | First Downs | 21 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **1** |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 3 |
| -21.9 | Offensive EPA | **5.3** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Baltimore Ravens to win at 64% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.3 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 24 points came in 27 points lower than the predicted 51. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 51.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Allen officiated this match (190 career games). The combined score of 24 points was 21 points below Brad Allen's career average of 45. Baltimore Ravens's victory aligns with Brad Allen's historical trend, Baltimore Ravens have a 73% win rate under this referee. Despite Brad Allen's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Baltimore Ravens prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.62 (edge +2.2%) — model probability 64.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 7 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Baltimore Ravens are the call at 64%, but Cincinnati Bengals stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Baltimore Ravens sit 78 ELO points clear, 1529 to 1451. Form leans Baltimore Ravens' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Cincinnati Bengals.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Baltimore Ravens by 7.3, with the two sides combining for about 51. Lean Baltimore Ravens, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Baltimore Ravens have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Baltimore Ravens took the most recent meeting 24-0 in 2025 Week 15.

Cincinnati Bengals went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 24.4 points for and 28.9 against.

Baltimore Ravens went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 24.9 points for and 23.4 against.

Joe Burrow starts under centre for Cincinnati Bengals, Lamar Jackson for Baltimore Ravens, with Zac Taylor and John Harbaugh calling the shots.

The market has Baltimore Ravens favourites, Cincinnati Bengals $2.36 and Baltimore Ravens $1.62, with the spread at Baltimore Ravens -2.5 and the total at 51.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Cincinnati Bengals 5 · Baltimore Ravens 7 |
| Last meeting | Baltimore Ravens 24-0 (2025) |
| Cincinnati Bengals 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-6 home |
| Cincinnati Bengals scoring | 24.4 for · 28.9 against |
| Baltimore Ravens 2025 so far | 8-9 · 5-3 away |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 24.9 for · 23.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Joe Burrow · Lamar Jackson |
| Head coaches | Zac Taylor · John Harbaugh |
| Market | Cincinnati Bengals $2.36 · Baltimore Ravens $1.62 |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -2.5 · total 51.5 |
| Referee | Brad Allen |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Baltimore Ravens

**Brad Allen** — 190 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Brad Allen | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 4W–6L | 40% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11W–4L | 73% |

Avg total: 45.1 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Allen officiates, Baltimore Ravens have won 11 of 15 games (73%), significantly stronger than Cincinnati Bengals's 4 from 10 (40%). Home teams win 56% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cincinnati Bengals | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 28.0pts | Avg Score | 21.8pts |
| 32.0pts | Avg Conceded | 20.8pts |
| -4.0pts | Avg Margin | 1.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | W9 L · W11 L · W12 L · W13 W · W14 L | 28.0 |
| Baltimore Ravens | W10 W · W11 W · W12 W · W13 L · W14 L | 21.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Baltimore Ravens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W15 | Cincinnati Bengals | 0 – 24 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2025 | W13 | Baltimore Ravens | 14 – 32 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2024 | W10 | Baltimore Ravens | 35 – 34 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2024 | W5 | Cincinnati Bengals | 38 – 41 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2023 | W11 | Baltimore Ravens | 34 – 20 | Cincinnati Bengals |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Paycor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cincinnati Bengals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chase Brown | RB | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/4g | 7/21g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 44% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/10g | 18/29g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.74 AI 42% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Andrei Iosivas | WR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 8/20g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Tinsley | WR | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/3g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Tanner Hudson | TE | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 1/13g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Jones | WR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/15g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Drew Sample | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/17g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mike Gesicki | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 2/12g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Samaje Perine | RB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/13g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.90 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Joe Burrow | QB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 5/22g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tahj Brooks | RB | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

**Baltimore Ravens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 10 in 13g | 7/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 6/8g | 1/1g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.55 AI 45% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.70 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 8/15g | 1/3g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Charlie Kolar | TE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 2 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Lamar Jackson | QB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/13g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Keaton Mitchell | RB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Tylan Wallace | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 29% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Tyler Huntley | QB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Baltimore Ravens** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 45% · no TD
- ⚡ Zay Flowers 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 29% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Mark Andrews — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Ravens: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: R.Ali, A.Gilman

**Cincinnati Bengals** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Chase Brown 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 44% · no TD
- ⚡ Ja'Marr Chase 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 42% · no TD
- ⚡ Samaje Perine — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Bengals: 13 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cincinnati Bengals 1451 · Baltimore Ravens 1529 · ELO difference: 78 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Cincinnati Bengals | Baltimore Ravens | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 56 | 42 | Cincinnati Bengals +14 |
| Receiving Corps | 52 | 47 | Cincinnati Bengals +5 |
| Backfield | 51 | 58 | Baltimore Ravens +7 |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 52 | Even |
| Secondary | 71 | 64 | Cincinnati Bengals +7 |
| Special Teams | 74 | 70 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Baltimore Ravens predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-14 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)