# Chicago Bears v Cleveland Browns — NFL Week 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Chicago Bears 31 – 3 Cleveland Browns

_Chicago Bears run riot over Cleveland Browns._

Half time: 14 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Chicago Bears 80% / Cleveland Browns 20% · Soldier Field · Mon, 15 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Chicago Bears: D'Andre Swift (8' Tipped ⚡), DJ Moore (14' Tipped ⚡), DJ Moore (37' Tipped ⚡), D'Andre Swift (45' Tipped ⚡) · Cleveland Browns: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 80% | Won |
| Cleveland Browns | 20% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.0 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Chicago Bears vs Cleveland Browns Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 15, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Chicago Bears 31–3 Cleveland Browns in NFL Week 15 at Soldier Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Chicago Bears led by two scores before Cleveland Browns had settled into the game, and the margin only grew from there. D'Andre Swift opened the scoring with 7:39 left in the first quarter, DJ Moore followed at the 1:33 mark, and Chicago Bears went to the break up 14-0. Cleveland Browns hadn't managed a single point by half-time and would finish with just three. The chase never got close enough to call it a chase.

The third quarter is where any lingering hope for Cleveland Browns died. Moore scored his second touchdown with 8:46 left in the quarter, Swift added his second with 53 seconds remaining, and Chicago Bears led 27-3. By the end of the third it was 28-3. The fourth quarter added one more score to make it 31-3, but the outcome had been decided well before then.

Turnovers did plenty of the damage. Cleveland Browns gave the ball away three times, Chicago Bears none. Shedeur Sanders threw three interceptions to go with 177 yards on 18-of-35 passing, a rough day compounded by pressure he couldn't shake. Caleb Williams had the cleaner night for Chicago Bears: 17-of-28 for 242 yards and two touchdowns, no turnovers.

The yardage gap tells the same story as the scoreboard. Chicago Bears finished with 384 total yards to Cleveland Browns' 227, and the rushing numbers were even more lopsided at 142 to 50. Swift was the workhorse behind that, 98 yards on 18 carries and two touchdowns, the kind of backfield performance the pre-match numbers hinted at when Chicago Bears rated 58 to Cleveland Browns' 40 in that category. Isaiah Bond was the biggest name in the passing game without a touchdown to show for it: two catches for 89 yards, evidence Chicago Bears could hurt Cleveland Browns through the air as easily as on the ground.

Cleveland Browns' one edge on paper was the pass rush, rated 64 to Chicago Bears' 47 coming in, but it barely showed. They managed three sacks to Chicago Bears' five, and whatever pressure they generated did nothing to slow Williams or change the shape of the game. The efficiency numbers were brutal for Cleveland Browns: an offensive EPA of minus 26.1 against Chicago Bears' plus 3.3. That's not one bad quarter. That's a team losing the game snap after snap.

Form lines had pointed this way. Chicago Bears came in on a 4-1 stretch over their last five, averaging 23.8 points scored and conceding 21.6. Cleveland Browns arrived at 1-4, averaging just 19.4 points scored against 23.4 conceded, an average margin of minus 4. Alphr's model had Chicago Bears at 80 percent to win, built off ratings of 1526 to 1346, and got the result right without much fuss. Where it fell short was the margin: the model projected an 11-point win on a 43-point total. The actual margin was 28. Cleveland Browns never gave that number a reason to hold up.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 14 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 31 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Chicago Bears | Stat | Cleveland Browns |
|---|---|---|
| **384** | Total Yards | 227 |
| **242** | Passing Yards | 177 |
| **142** | Rushing Yards | 50 |
| **32** | First Downs | 16 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 3 |
| **5** | Sacks Made | 3 |
| **3.3** | Offensive EPA | -26.1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Chicago Bears to win at 80% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.0 but the actual margin was 28 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Ron Torbert officiated this match (150 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 12 points below Ron Torbert's career average of 46. Chicago Bears bucked the trend, Cleveland Browns historically win 20% of games under Ron Torbert, but couldn't convert that edge today. Chicago Bears's home victory fits Ron Torbert's profile, home teams win 55% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Chicago Bears to win @ $1.27 (edge +1.5%) — model probability 80.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Chicago Bears -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 38.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Chicago Bears by 11 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Chicago Bears here: 80% to see off Cleveland Browns. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Chicago Bears sit 180 ELO points clear, 1526 to 1346. Form leans Chicago Bears' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Cleveland Browns.

Chicago Bears own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Chicago Bears by 11.0, with the two sides combining for about 43. Chicago Bears to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Chicago Bears have won 5 of the last 8 between these two, and Chicago Bears took the most recent meeting 31-3 in 2025 Week 15.

Chicago Bears went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-2 at home, averaging 25.9 points for and 24.4 against.

Cleveland Browns went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 16.4 points for and 22.3 against.

Caleb Williams starts under centre for Chicago Bears, Shedeur Sanders for Cleveland Browns, with Ben Johnson and Kevin Stefanski calling the shots.

The market has Chicago Bears favourites, Chicago Bears $1.27 and Cleveland Browns $3.95, with the spread at Chicago Bears -7.5 and the total at 38.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Chicago Bears 5 · Cleveland Browns 3 |
| Last meeting | Chicago Bears 31-3 (2025) |
| Chicago Bears 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-2 home |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 25.9 for · 24.4 against |
| Cleveland Browns 2025 so far | 5-12 · 2-6 away |
| Cleveland Browns scoring | 16.4 for · 22.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Caleb Williams · Shedeur Sanders |
| Head coaches | Ben Johnson · Kevin Stefanski |
| Market | Chicago Bears $1.27 · Cleveland Browns $3.95 |
| Spread | Chicago Bears -7.5 · total 38.5 |
| Referee | Ron Torbert |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Cleveland Browns

**Ron Torbert** — 150 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under Ron Torbert | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 0W–8L | 0% |
| Cleveland Browns | 2W–8L | 20% |

Avg total: 46.3 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Ron Torbert officiates, Cleveland Browns have won 2 of 10 games (20%), significantly stronger than Chicago Bears's 0 from 8 (0%). Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Chicago Bears | Stat | Cleveland Browns |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 23.8pts | Avg Score | 19.4pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Conceded | 23.4pts |
| 2.2pts | Avg Margin | -4.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | W10 W · W11 W · W12 W · W13 W · W14 L | 23.8 |
| Cleveland Browns | W10 L · W11 L · W12 W · W13 L · W14 L | 19.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Chicago Bears lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W15 | Chicago Bears | 31 – 3 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2023 | W15 | Cleveland Browns | 20 – 17 | Chicago Bears |
| 2021 | W3 | Cleveland Browns | 26 – 6 | Chicago Bears |
| 2017 | W16 | Chicago Bears | 20 – 3 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2013 | W15 | Cleveland Browns | 31 – 38 | Chicago Bears |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Soldier Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Chicago Bears** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 5/15g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' 45' |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 42% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Caleb Williams | QB | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/13g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | DJ Moore | WR | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 11/21g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.10 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 37' |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 10/45g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Brittain Brown | RB | 1 in 1g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Durham Smythe | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |

**Cleveland Browns** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Quinshon Judkins | RB | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (1·0·0·3·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.10 AI 27% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $16.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jerry Jeudy | WR | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Shedeur Sanders | QB | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Brenden Bates | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Gage Larvadain | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Bond | WR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Malachi Corley | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Trayveon Williams | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Cleveland Browns** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Quinshon Judkins 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Harold Fannin Jr. 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- Rest of the Browns: 7 TDs across the team's last 5

**Chicago Bears** (4 picks)
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 43% · **scored Q1, Q3**
- ⚡ Kyle Monangai 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 42% · no TD
- ⚡ DJ Moore — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 27% · **scored Q1, Q3**
- ⚡ Colston Loveland — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Bears: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Chicago Bears 1526 · Cleveland Browns 1346 · ELO difference: 180 in favour of Chicago Bears

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Chicago Bears | Cleveland Browns | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 48 | 47 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 56 | 49 | Chicago Bears +7 |
| Backfield | 58 | 40 | Chicago Bears +18 |
| Pass Rush | 47 | 64 | Cleveland Browns +17 |
| Secondary | 60 | 49 | Chicago Bears +11 |
| Special Teams | 64 | 52 | Chicago Bears +12 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Cleveland Browns |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 80%** — Chicago Bears predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r15-chicago-bears-v-cleveland-browns
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-12-14 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)