# Tampa Bay Buccaneers v New Orleans Saints — NFL Week 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – 24 New Orleans Saints

_New Orleans Saints hit back to march all over Tampa Bay Buccaneers._

Half time: 10 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 86% / New Orleans Saints 14% · Raymond James Stadium · Mon, 08 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucky Irving (7' Tipped ⚡), Sean Tucker (38') · New Orleans Saints: Devin Neal (3'), Tyler Shough (34'), Tyler Shough (52')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 86% | Lost |
| New Orleans Saints | 14% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.2 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 14, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–24 New Orleans Saints in NFL Week 14 at Raymond James Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

New Orleans Saints beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24-20 at Raymond James Stadium, and for four quarters the margin never stretched beyond a converted touchdown. This was a genuine arm wrestle, decided only in the final stretch.

Devin Neal opened the scoring for New Orleans with 12:31 left in the first, and Tampa Bay hit straight back through Bucky Irving to make it 6-7. By the end of the quarter it was locked at 7-7, honours even and nothing settled.

Tampa Bay found the only breathing room of the night before the main break, going up 10-7 at half-time. It was the widest either side led all match, and even then it was just three points.

The third quarter flipped the lead twice. Tyler Shough put New Orleans back in front 10-13 with 11:35 to go in the quarter, before Sean Tucker answered for Tampa Bay to make it 16-14. By the time the quarter ended it was tied again, 17-17. Two teams, level scores, and the clock ticking down on whoever blinked first.

Shough did it again with 8:34 left in the fourth, his second touchdown of the night shoving New Orleans out to 17-23. Tampa Bay clawed back with three points to make it 20-24, but that was as close as it got. The last team to score won the game, and it was New Orleans.

Look at the yardage and you would think Tampa Bay should have won it. They out-gained New Orleans 301 yards to 283 and did it mostly on the ground, 179 rushing yards, 59 per cent of their total output. Their pass rush also had the better of it, three sacks to none. But New Orleans were the more efficient side with the ball in hand, finishing at plus 11.3 expected points advantage over Tampa Bay's minus 12.3, and that gap showed up when it

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 20 |
| New Orleans Saints | 7 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Stat | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| **301** | Total Yards | 283 |
| 122 | Passing Yards | **144** |
| **179** | Rushing Yards | 139 |
| 19 | First Downs | **25** |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| -12.3 | Offensive EPA | **-1** |

**Model Report Card**

New Orleans Saints defied the model's 86% prediction for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.2 but the actual margin was 4 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 44, within 4 points. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Clete Blakeman officiated this match (258 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Clete Blakeman's career average of 46. New Orleans Saints's victory aligns with Clete Blakeman's historical trend, New Orleans Saints have a 53% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win @ $1.24 (edge +5.5%) — model probability 86.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** New Orleans Saints +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Tampa Bay Buccaneers here: 86% to see off New Orleans Saints. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit 203 ELO points clear, 1528 to 1325. Form leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for New Orleans Saints.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9.2, with the two sides combining for about 41. Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and New Orleans Saints took the most recent meeting 24-20 in 2025 Week 14.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 4-4 at home, averaging 22.4 points for and 24.2 against.

New Orleans Saints went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-6 away, averaging 18.0 points for and 22.5 against.

Baker Mayfield starts under centre for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tyler Shough for New Orleans Saints, with Todd Bowles and Kellen Moore calling the shots.

The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers favourites, Tampa Bay Buccaneers $1.24 and New Orleans Saints $4.30, with the spread at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7.5 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 · New Orleans Saints 5 |
| Last meeting | New Orleans Saints 24-20 (2025) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025 so far | 8-9 · 4-4 home |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers scoring | 22.4 for · 24.2 against |
| New Orleans Saints 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-6 away |
| New Orleans Saints scoring | 18.0 for · 22.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Baker Mayfield · Tyler Shough |
| Head coaches | Todd Bowles · Kellen Moore |
| Market | Tampa Bay Buccaneers $1.24 · New Orleans Saints $4.30 |
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7.5 · total 41.5 |
| Referee | Clete Blakeman |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours New Orleans Saints

**Clete Blakeman** — 258 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Clete Blakeman | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7W–8L | 47% |
| New Orleans Saints | 8W–7L | 53% |

Avg total: 46.3 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

New Orleans Saints hold a 6-point edge: 8W–7L (53%) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers's 7W–8L (47%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Stat | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 21.0pts | Avg Score | 11.4pts |
| 25.2pts | Avg Conceded | 21.8pts |
| -4.2pts | Avg Margin | -10.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W8 W · W10 L · W11 L · W12 L · W13 W | 21.0 |
| New Orleans Saints | W8 L · W9 L · W10 W · W12 L · W13 L | 11.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 20 – 24 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2025 | W8 | New Orleans Saints | 3 – 23 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2024 | W18 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 27 – 19 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2024 | W6 | New Orleans Saints | 27 – 51 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2023 | W17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 13 – 23 | New Orleans Saints |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Raymond James Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Emeka Egbuka | WR | 6 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Sean Tucker | RB | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·3·0·0) | 3/3g | 1/16g | 19% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Rachaad White | RB | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 13/32g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 30% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Bucky Irving | RB | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 2/2g | 7/13g | 55% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.12 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 7' |
| – | Baker Mayfield | QB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/25g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Kameron Johnson | WR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Miller | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sterling Shepard | WR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/13g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Cade Otton | TE | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 4/29g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/15g | 21/57g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Payne Durham | TE | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/13g | 13% | — | — |

**New Orleans Saints** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chris Olave | WR | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Juwan Johnson | TE | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/3g | 24% | 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Devaughn Vele | WR | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jack Stoll | TE | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Taysom Hill | TE | 1 in 8g | 4/10g (3·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 2/7g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Audric Estimé | RB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Dante Pettis | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 2/3g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Devin Neal | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 3' |
| – | Evan Hull | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Foster Moreau | TE | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Mason Tipton | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Shough | QB | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 34' 52' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New Orleans Saints** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Chris Olave 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Saints: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Neal, T.Shough

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Bucky Irving 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 49% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Emeka Egbuka 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Rachaad White — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Chris Godwin Jr. — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Cade Otton — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Buccaneers: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: S.Tucker

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1528 · New Orleans Saints 1325 · ELO difference: 203 in favour of Tampa Bay Buccaneers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | New Orleans Saints | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 41 | 32 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9 |
| Receiving Corps | 44 | 52 | New Orleans Saints +8 |
| Backfield | 58 | 46 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12 |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 50 | Even |
| Secondary | 66 | 49 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +17 |
| Special Teams | 62 | 47 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +15 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 86%** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-07 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)