# New York Jets v Miami Dolphins — NFL Week 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New York Jets 10 – 34 Miami Dolphins

_Miami Dolphins make a splash against New York Jets._

Half time: 7 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New York Jets 58% / Miami Dolphins 42% · MetLife Stadium · Mon, 08 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New York Jets: Isaiah Williams (15') · Miami Dolphins: Jaylen Waddle (3' Tipped ⚡), De'Von Achane (7' Tipped ⚡), Jaylen Wright (12'), Gordon (54')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 58% | Lost |
| Miami Dolphins | 42% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.6 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 14, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

New York Jets 10–34 Miami Dolphins in NFL Week 14 at MetLife Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model gave New York Jets a 58% chance and had them winning by 2.6. Miami Dolphins won by 24. That's about as wrong as a margin call gets, though the total of 47 was close enough, the actual sat at 44.

The gap between the read and the result was obvious from the opening quarter. Miami Dolphins scored three unanswered touchdowns before New York Jets got on the board, Jaylen Waddle first, then De'Von Achane, then Jaylen Wright, and by the 0:42 mark of the first it was 21-6 with Isaiah Williams' response barely denting it. New York Jets never led, never tied, and the deficit only grew from there: 21-7 at the end of the first, 24-7 at the break, still 24-7 through the third before Ollie Gordon II put the game out of reach with 6:26 left in the fourth.

Where the model's logic held was in spotting Miami Dolphins' edges on paper. Their backfield rated 65 to New York Jets' 55, their receiving corps 63 to 47, special teams 67 to 56. Those gaps showed up exactly where you'd expect. Miami Dolphins ran for 239 yards, which was 65% of their total offence, with Jaylen Wright alone gaining 107 on 24 carries and a touchdown. New York Jets managed just 65 rushing yards all game. When one side's backfield rating is ten points clear and the box score reads like that, the model wasn't wrong to flag it, it just badly undersold how far the gap would stretch.

What it missed was the pass rush split. Pre-match, that battle looked close, 51 to 49 in New York Jets' favour. In practice, Miami Dolphins got home six times to New York Jets' one, and that pressure turned into three turnovers for New York Jets against none for Miami Dolphins. Brady Cook finished 14 of 30 for 163 yards and two picks under that heat, while Tua Tagovailoa had the far easier night, 13 of 21 for 127 and a touchdown, protected well enough that he didn't need to force much.

The efficiency numbers tell the same story from a different angle. Miami Dolphins finished at plus 12.6 offensive EPA, New York Jets at minus 25.8, a swing of 38.4 points on a snap-for-snap basis. Add 30 first downs to New York Jets' 19 and 366 total yards to 234, and there's no single moment to point to, it was a beating built from the first quarter and never really challenged again.

Mason Taylor was the one bright spot for New York Jets, five catches for 51 yards, the game's leading receiver on either side, but a single reliable target doesn't cover for three turnovers and a non-existent ground game.

Form lines suggested this could go either way, New York Jets 3-2 in their last five against Miami Dolphins' 4-1, with Miami Dolphins conceding just 16.2 points a game over that stretch. That defensive number held up close enough, and it's the backfield and pass-rush gaps, not the win probability, that ended up doing the real damage.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| Miami Dolphins | 21 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 34 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New York Jets | Stat | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 234 | Total Yards | **366** |
| **169** | Passing Yards | 127 |
| 65 | Rushing Yards | **239** |
| 19 | First Downs | **30** |
| 3 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **6** |
| -25.8 | Offensive EPA | **12.6** |

**Model Report Card**

Miami Dolphins defied the model's 58% prediction for New York Jets, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.6 but the actual margin was 24 points. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 44, within 3 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 41.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Bill Vinovich officiated this match (274 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Bill Vinovich's career average of 45.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** New York Jets to win @ $2.24 (edge +13.0%) — model probability 57.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** New York Jets +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: New York Jets by 3 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

New York Jets are the call at 58%, but Miami Dolphins stay live at 42%. The ratings say otherwise: Miami Dolphins sit 100 ELO points clear, 1469 to 1369, so the model is backing New York Jets against the ratings gap. Form leans Miami Dolphins' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for New York Jets.

On paper Miami Dolphins shade it, ahead on 2 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO) and Recent Form. The model still sides with New York Jets, which says the balance of the matchup carry the most weight. The margin model has New York Jets by 2.6, with the two sides combining for about 47. Lean New York Jets, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Miami Dolphins have won 10 of the last 12 between these two, and Miami Dolphins took the most recent meeting 34-10 in 2025 Week 14.

New York Jets went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 at home, averaging 17.6 points for and 29.6 against.

Miami Dolphins went 7-10 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 20.4 points for and 24.9 against.

Tyrod Taylor starts under centre for New York Jets, Tua Tagovailoa for Miami Dolphins, with Aaron Glenn and Mike McDaniel calling the shots.

The market has Miami Dolphins favourites, New York Jets $2.24 and Miami Dolphins $1.68, with the spread at Miami Dolphins -2.5 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | New York Jets 2 · Miami Dolphins 10 |
| Last meeting | Miami Dolphins 34-10 (2025) |
| New York Jets 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 home |
| New York Jets scoring | 17.6 for · 29.6 against |
| Miami Dolphins 2025 so far | 7-10 · 2-6 away |
| Miami Dolphins scoring | 20.4 for · 24.9 against |
| Quarterbacks | Tyrod Taylor · Tua Tagovailoa |
| Head coaches | Aaron Glenn · Mike McDaniel |
| Market | New York Jets $2.24 · Miami Dolphins $1.68 |
| Spread | Miami Dolphins -2.5 · total 41.5 |
| Referee | Bill Vinovich |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Bill Vinovich** — 274 career games since 2004.

| Team | Record under Bill Vinovich | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 4W–9L | 31% |
| Miami Dolphins | 4W–11L | 27% |

Avg total: 44.8 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Bill Vinovich, New York Jets 4W–9L (31%) and Miami Dolphins 4W–11L (27%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New York Jets | Stat | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 23.4pts | Avg Score | 21.4pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 16.2pts |
| -3.0pts | Avg Margin | 5.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | W8 W · W10 W · W11 L · W12 L · W13 W | 23.4 |
| Miami Dolphins | W8 W · W9 L · W10 W · W11 W · W13 W | 21.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Miami Dolphins lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W14 | New York Jets | 10 – 34 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2025 | W4 | Miami Dolphins | 27 – 21 | New York Jets |
| 2024 | W18 | New York Jets | 32 – 20 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2024 | W14 | Miami Dolphins | 32 – 26 | New York Jets |
| 2023 | W15 | Miami Dolphins | 30 – 0 | New York Jets |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MetLife Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New York Jets** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Breece Hall | RB | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 12/28g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.08 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | John Metchie III | WR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Adonai Mitchell | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 5% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 18% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Allen Lazard | WR | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 5/18g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Beck | RB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Williams | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 7% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Jeremy Ruckert | TE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/22g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Kene Nwangwu | RB | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Mason Taylor | TE | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Tyrod Taylor | QB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 2/11g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Brady Cook | QB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Davis | RB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/13g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Khalil Herbert | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Stone Smartt | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 3% | — | — |

**Miami Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | De'Von Achane | RB | 10 in 12g | 8/10g (0·1·1·2·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 3/4g | 1/1g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.72 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.75 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 7' |
| – | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/4g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' |
| – | Darren Waller | TE | 4 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 3/11g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 22% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Malik Washington | WR | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.80 AI 17% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Ollie Gordon II | RB | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Dee Eskridge | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Greg Dulcich | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Jaylen Wright | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zach Wilson | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/18g | 13% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Miami Dolphins** (4 picks)
- ⚡ De'Von Achane 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 53% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Jaylen Waddle 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 32% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Darren Waller 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- ⚡ Malik Washington — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 17% · no TD
- Rest of the Dolphins: 2 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Wright, O.Gordon

**New York Jets** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Breece Hall 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Adonai Mitchell — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 18% · no TD
- Rest of the Jets: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: I.Williams

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New York Jets 1369 · Miami Dolphins 1469 · ELO difference: 100 in favour of Miami Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New York Jets | Miami Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 47 | 47 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 47 | 63 | Miami Dolphins +16 |
| Backfield | 55 | 65 | Miami Dolphins +10 |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 49 | Even |
| Secondary | 51 | 53 | Even |
| Special Teams | 56 | 67 | Miami Dolphins +11 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — New York Jets predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-07 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)