# Minnesota Vikings v Washington Commanders — NFL Week 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Minnesota Vikings 31 – 0 Washington Commanders

_Minnesota Vikings put Washington Commanders to the sword._

Half time: 14 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Minnesota Vikings 49% / Washington Commanders 51% · U.S. Bank Stadium · Mon, 08 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Minnesota Vikings: Josh Oliver (4'), Jordan Mason (25'), Josh Oliver (43'), T.J. Hockenson (49') · Washington Commanders: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | 51% | Lost |
| Minnesota Vikings | 49% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.5 predicted → 31 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 14, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Minnesota Vikings 31–0 Washington Commanders in NFL Week 14 at U.S. Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Minnesota led 14-0 at the break and never let Washington within sniffing distance of it. That's the story in one line, but the passage that really killed the contest came either side of halftime: Josh Oliver's first major inside the opening quarter, then Jordan Mason adding a second before the second term was out. By the time the sides went to the sheds it was already 14-0, and Washington had shown nothing to suggest an answer was coming.

It wasn't. Oliver struck again with 2:58 left in the third to push it to 24-0, and Hockenson put the cap on it early in the fourth. Final score: 31-0. Washington Commanders finished with nothing on the board, which tells you plenty on its own.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard already said. Minnesota outgained Washington 325 yards to 215, doubled them up in first downs 36 to 16, and did it while winning the turnover count 3 to 0. Washington's offence simply had no room to move once it kept handing possessions back.

Oddly enough, Washington's pass rush was the one area where they showed up, four sacks to Minnesota's two, despite going in rated the weaker unit there, 51 to Minnesota's 63. Didn't matter. Minnesota's offensive efficiency made the pressure irrelevant: +13.6 expected points added against Washington's -21.2, a gap of 34.8 that tells you which side was actually doing something with their snaps.

J.J. McCarthy went 16 of 23 for 163 yards and three touchdowns, comfortable numbers against a Commanders defence that had Washington's own quarterback, Jayden Daniels, at 9 of 20 for 78 yards and an interception. Odd footnote there too: Minnesota's quarterback spot was rated way behind Washington's coming in, 18 to 50, and it was Minnesota's passer who ran the show.

On the ground, Minnesota leaned on Aaron Jones for 76 yards on 14 carries, part of a 162-yard rushing total that made up exactly half the team's output. Washington's rushing group, rated marginally ahead pre-match at 49 to 45, managed only 107. Jordan Addison led all receivers with four catches for 62 yards, tidy work without needing to do much heavy lifting given how the ground game was travelling.

Form lines had both sides struggling coming in, Minnesota 1-4 across their last five and Washington winless in that stretch, and the model had this one as a near coin flip, giving Washington 51% and pricing Minnesota as favourites by just 4.5 points on a projected total of 40. None of that held up. Minnesota won by 31, more than six times the tipped margin, and did it with a shutout to boot. Wins and misses, and this one was a miss the model won't mind owning up to.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 31 |
| Washington Commanders | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Minnesota Vikings | Stat | Washington Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| **325** | Total Yards | 215 |
| **163** | Passing Yards | 108 |
| **162** | Rushing Yards | 107 |
| **36** | First Downs | 16 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 3 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | **4** |
| **13.6** | Offensive EPA | -21.2 |

**Model Report Card**

Minnesota Vikings defied the model's 51% prediction for Washington Commanders, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.5 but the actual margin was 31 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 43.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Allen officiated this match (190 career games). The combined score of 31 points was 14 points below Brad Allen's career average of 45. Minnesota Vikings's victory aligns with Brad Allen's historical trend, Minnesota Vikings have a 60% win rate under this referee. Minnesota Vikings's home victory fits Brad Allen's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Washington Commanders to win @ $1.87 (edge -2.1%) — model probability 51.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Minnesota Vikings +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Minnesota Vikings by 5 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders. The model can't split them, landing on Washington Commanders at 51%. The ratings say otherwise: Minnesota Vikings sit 21 ELO points clear, 1465 to 1444, so the model is backing Washington Commanders against the ratings gap. Form leans Minnesota Vikings' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Washington Commanders.

On paper Minnesota Vikings shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Recent Form. The model still sides with Washington Commanders, which says Quarterback and Secondary carry the most weight. The margin model has Minnesota Vikings by 4.5, with the two sides combining for about 40. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Minnesota Vikings have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Minnesota Vikings took the most recent meeting 31-0 in 2025 Week 14.

Minnesota Vikings went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 4-4 at home, averaging 20.2 points for and 19.6 against.

Washington Commanders went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 3-6 away, averaging 20.9 points for and 26.5 against.

J.J. McCarthy starts under centre for Minnesota Vikings, Jayden Daniels for Washington Commanders, with Kevin O'Connell and Dan Quinn calling the shots.

The market has Washington Commanders favourites, Minnesota Vikings $1.95 and Washington Commanders $1.87, with the spread at Washington Commanders -1.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Minnesota Vikings 9 · Washington Commanders 3 |
| Last meeting | Minnesota Vikings 31-0 (2025) |
| Minnesota Vikings 2025 so far | 9-8 · 4-4 home |
| Minnesota Vikings scoring | 20.2 for · 19.6 against |
| Washington Commanders 2025 so far | 5-12 · 3-6 away |
| Washington Commanders scoring | 20.9 for · 26.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | J.J. McCarthy · Jayden Daniels |
| Head coaches | Kevin O'Connell · Dan Quinn |
| Market | Minnesota Vikings $1.95 · Washington Commanders $1.87 |
| Spread | Washington Commanders -1.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Brad Allen |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Minnesota Vikings

**Brad Allen** — 190 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Brad Allen | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 9W–6L | 60% |
| Washington Commanders | 4W–6L | 40% |

Avg total: 45.0 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Allen officiates, Minnesota Vikings have won 9 of 15 games (60%), significantly stronger than Washington Commanders's 4 from 10 (40%). Home teams win 56% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Minnesota Vikings | Stat | Washington Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 13.8pts | Avg Score | 16.4pts |
| 23.8pts | Avg Conceded | 30.6pts |
| -10.0pts | Avg Margin | -14.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | W9 W · W10 L · W11 L · W12 L · W13 L | 13.8 |
| Washington Commanders | W8 L · W9 L · W10 L · W11 L · W13 L | 16.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Minnesota Vikings lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W14 | Minnesota Vikings | 31 – 0 | Washington Commanders |
| 2022 | W9 | Washington Commanders | 17 – 20 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2019 | W8 | Minnesota Vikings | 19 – 9 | Washington Commanders |
| 2017 | W10 | Washington Commanders | 30 – 38 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2016 | W10 | Washington Commanders | 26 – 20 | Minnesota Vikings |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at U.S. Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Minnesota Vikings** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jordan Mason | RB | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (2·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/7g | 28% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Jordan Addison | WR | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 10/17g | 38% | 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Aaron Jones | RB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 10/17g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | J.J. McCarthy | QB | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Nailor | WR | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/17g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Josh Oliver | TE | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/14g | 20% | — | 🏉 4' 43' |
| – | Justin Jefferson | WR | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 27/44g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | T.J. Hockenson | TE | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 8/26g | 18% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Zavier Scott | RB | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Ben Sims | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Myles Price | WR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tai Felton | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Washington Commanders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Zach Ertz | TE | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/3g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Daniels | QB | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Terry McLaurin | WR | 2 in 5g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ben Sinnott | TE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jaylin Lane | WR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy McNichols | RB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Mariota | QB | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Treylon Burks | WR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Colson Yankoff | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | John Bates | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Noah Brown | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Washington Commanders** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Terry McLaurin 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Jayden Daniels — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Deebo Samuel Sr. — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Chris Rodriguez Jr. — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- Rest of the Commanders: 2 TDs across the team's last 5

**Minnesota Vikings** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Justin Jefferson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Aaron Jones 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Vikings: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Oliver, J.Mason, T.Hockenson

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Minnesota Vikings hold the ELO advantage (1465 vs 1444), but the market favours Washington Commanders (@1.87). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Minnesota Vikings 1465 · Washington Commanders 1444 · ELO difference: 21 in favour of Minnesota Vikings

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Minnesota Vikings | Washington Commanders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 18 | 50 | Washington Commanders +32 |
| Receiving Corps | 44 | 51 | Washington Commanders +7 |
| Backfield | 45 | 49 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 63 | 51 | Minnesota Vikings +12 |
| Secondary | 47 | 51 | Even |
| Special Teams | 56 | 69 | Washington Commanders +13 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Washington Commanders |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Washington Commanders |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Washington Commanders predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r14-minnesota-vikings-v-washington-commanders
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-12-07 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)