# Los Angeles Chargers v Philadelphia Eagles — NFL Week 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Los Angeles Chargers 22 – 19 Philadelphia Eagles

_Los Angeles Chargers hold off a fast-finishing Philadelphia Eagles._

Half time: 10 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 39% / Philadelphia Eagles 61% · SoFi Stadium · Tue, 09 Dec, 12:15 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Los Angeles Chargers: Omarion Hampton (7' Tipped ⚡) · Philadelphia Eagles: Saquon Barkley (45' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 61% | Lost |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 39% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.0 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Los Angeles Chargers vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 14, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 9 Dec 2025, 12:15 pm_

Los Angeles Chargers 22–19 Philadelphia Eagles in NFL Week 14 at SoFi Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Philadelphia Eagles did plenty right at SoFi Stadium. They ran up 374 total yards to the Chargers' 308, banked 29 first downs to 19, and Jalen Hurts moved the ball through the air for 240 yards. On paper, that's the profile of a team that should have left with the win. Instead they're on the wrong side of a 22-19 overtime result, and the reason for that sits in one column: four turnovers, twice the Chargers' two.

That's the whole story in miniature. Philadelphia had the yards and the first downs, but they kept handing possessions back, and against a Los Angeles side whose special teams rating (70) sat well clear of Philadelphia's (51) coming in, that's a habit that costs you. Hurts finished 21-of-40 for 240 yards, with four interceptions mixed in. A.J. Brown did his job, six catches for 100 yards, the game's leading receiver, and Saquon Barkley was the best player on the field for long stretches: 122 yards on 20 carries and the touchdown that put Philadelphia in front 15-13 to open the fourth quarter. None of it was enough to hold.

The pass rush numbers only sharpen the picture. Philadelphia's front got to Justin Herbert seven times to the Chargers' single sack of Hurts, yet Herbert still did what he needed to when it mattered, 139 yards on 12-of-26 with a touchdown and one interception of his own. Los Angeles didn't need him to carry the game. They leaned on the ground instead, 169 rushing yards, 45 per cent of their total offence, with Omarion Hampton opening the scoring in the first quarter and the Chargers controlling the lead for most of the night that followed.

The scoreboard tells that story cleanly. Hampton's touchdown had Los Angeles up 6-0 with 8:53 left in the first. They led 7-3 at the end of that quarter, 10-6 at half-time, and 13-9 through three. Then Barkley's score flip

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 22 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 19 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Philadelphia Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 308 | Total Yards | **374** |
| 139 | Passing Yards | **240** |
| **169** | Rushing Yards | 134 |
| 19 | First Downs | **29** |
| **2** | Turnovers | 4 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **7** |
| -19.3 | Offensive EPA | **-17.1** |

**Model Report Card**

Los Angeles Chargers defied the model's 61% prediction for Philadelphia Eagles, a notable upset. The margin model was sharp, predicting Los Angeles Chargers by 1.0 vs the actual margin of 3 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 41, within 3 points. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

**Referee Watch**

Scott Novak officiated this match (111 career games). The combined score of 41 points was 4 points below Scott Novak's career average of 45. Los Angeles Chargers bucked the trend, Philadelphia Eagles historically win 71% of games under Scott Novak, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Philadelphia Eagles to win @ $1.83 (edge +6.4%) — model probability 60.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 1 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Philadelphia Eagles are the call at 61%, but Los Angeles Chargers stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Philadelphia Eagles sit 109 ELO points clear, 1641 to 1532. Form leans Los Angeles Chargers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Philadelphia Eagles.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Los Angeles Chargers by 1.0, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Philadelphia Eagles, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Los Angeles Chargers have won 4 of the last 7 between these two, and Los Angeles Chargers took the most recent meeting 22-19 in 2025 Week 14.

Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 21.6 points for and 20.0 against.

Philadelphia Eagles went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-3 away, averaging 22.3 points for and 19.1 against.

Justin Herbert starts under centre for Los Angeles Chargers, Jalen Hurts for Philadelphia Eagles, with Jim Harbaugh and Nick Sirianni calling the shots.

The market has Philadelphia Eagles favourites, Los Angeles Chargers $2.00 and Philadelphia Eagles $1.83, with the spread at Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Los Angeles Chargers 4 · Philadelphia Eagles 3 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Chargers 22-19 (2025) |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-3 home |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 21.6 for · 20.0 against |
| Philadelphia Eagles 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-3 away |
| Philadelphia Eagles scoring | 22.3 for · 19.1 against |
| Quarterbacks | Justin Herbert · Jalen Hurts |
| Head coaches | Jim Harbaugh · Nick Sirianni |
| Market | Los Angeles Chargers $2.00 · Philadelphia Eagles $1.83 |
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 · total 41.5 |
| Referee | Scott Novak |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Philadelphia Eagles

**Scott Novak** — 111 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Scott Novak | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 2W–2L | 50% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5W–2L | 71% |

Avg total: 45.4 pts · Home win %: 46% · Home bias: Leans away

When Scott Novak officiates, Philadelphia Eagles have won 5 of 7 games (71%), significantly stronger than Los Angeles Chargers's 2 from 4 (50%). Small sample (4 games for Los Angeles Chargers).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Philadelphia Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 17.8pts | Avg Conceded | 16.8pts |
| 7.4pts | Avg Margin | 3.2pts |
| 8.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | W8 W · W9 W · W10 W · W11 L · W13 W | 25.2 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | W8 W · W10 W · W11 W · W12 L · W13 L | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Chargers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W14 | Los Angeles Chargers | 22 – 19 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2021 | W9 | Philadelphia Eagles | 24 – 27 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2017 | W4 | Los Angeles Chargers | 24 – 26 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2013 | W2 | Philadelphia Eagles | 30 – 33 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2009 | W10 | Los Angeles Chargers | 31 – 23 | Philadelphia Eagles |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Quentin Johnston | WR | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (2·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 8/22g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.70 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 9/15g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 32% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Keenan Allen | WR | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 14/35g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Kimani Vidal | RB | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/8g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 42% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Omarion Hampton | RB | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' |
| – | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 9/47g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tre Harris | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Derius Davis | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/22g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Hassan Haskins | RB | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/10g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Will Dissly | TE | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/13g | 8% | — | — |

**Philadelphia Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jalen Hurts | QB | 8 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Dallas Goedert | TE | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (1·2·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 34% | — | — |
| – | A.J. Brown | WR | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Saquon Barkley | RB | 6 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 35% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' |
| – | DeVonta Smith | WR | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jahan Dotson | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Britain Covey | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Cameron Latu | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darius Cooper | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kylen Granson | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tank Bigsby | RB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Will Shipley | RB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Saquon Barkley 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 35% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ DeVonta Smith 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- Rest of the Eagles: 9 TDs across the team's last 5

**Los Angeles Chargers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Kimani Vidal 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 42% · no TD
- ⚡ Omarion Hampton 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 40% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Ladd McConkey — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Quentin Johnston — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Chargers: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Chargers 1532 · Philadelphia Eagles 1641 · ELO difference: 108 in favour of Philadelphia Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Chargers | Philadelphia Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 53 | 55 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 57 | Even |
| Backfield | 60 | 51 | Los Angeles Chargers +9 |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 55 | Even |
| Secondary | 53 | 55 | Even |
| Special Teams | 70 | 51 | Los Angeles Chargers +19 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Philadelphia Eagles predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-09 01:15 UTC (latest tip update)