# Las Vegas Raiders v Denver Broncos — NFL Week 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Las Vegas Raiders 17 – 24 Denver Broncos

_Denver Broncos hold off a fast-finishing Las Vegas Raiders._

Half time: 7 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Las Vegas Raiders 25% / Denver Broncos 75% · Allegiant Stadium · Mon, 08 Dec, 08:05 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Las Vegas Raiders: Brock Bowers (15' Tipped ⚡), Shedrick Jackson (58') · Denver Broncos: Bo Nix (9'), Mims (24'), RJ Harvey (41' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 75% | Won |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.3 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 14, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Dec 2025, 08:05 am_

Las Vegas Raiders 17–24 Denver Broncos in NFL Week 14 at Allegiant Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Denver Broncos didn't need to move fast, they just needed to keep moving. Las Vegas Raiders finished with 253 total yards to Denver's 364, but the shape of those yards tells the real story. The Broncos ran for 152, which is 42 percent of their total output, ground it out carry by carry while the Raiders were stuck chasing chunks through the air. Final score: Denver Broncos 24, Las Vegas Raiders 17.

The Raiders actually had the better start to the aggro. Bo Nix opened the scoring with 6:10 left in the first, but Brock Bowers answered with five seconds on the clock to level it 7-7 at the end of the quarter. That was as close as it got. Marvin Mims Jr. put Denver back in front in the second, and by half-time it was 14-7 Broncos, a lead built on patience rather than fireworks.

From there Denver just kept feeding the machine. RJ Harvey scored again with 4:10 left in the third to make it 21-7, and he finished as the game's leading rusher with 75 yards on 17 carries. Las Vegas didn't get its second touchdown until Shedrick Jackson found the line with 2:22 left in the fourth, by which point the Broncos were already out to 24-7. Too little, too late, and honestly, that's been the story of the Raiders' season.

The efficiency numbers back up what the eye test suggested. Denver's offence ran +11.2 Offensive EPA against Las Vegas's minus-2.7, a gap of 13.9 points per snap in Denver's favour. That's not a team hanging on, that's a team dictating terms. Bo Nix went 31-of-38 for 212 yards and a score, patient and precise, while Geno Smith's 13-of-21 for 116 and a single touchdown never really threatened to turn the game into a shootout. Courtland Sutton led all receivers with 6 catches for 62 yards, a steady target rather than a home run threat, which suited exactly how Denver wanted to play it.

None of this should surprise anyone who looked at the sides walking in. Denver's backfield rated 50 to Las Vegas's 41, its quarterback spot 55 to 38, and its special teams edge was the biggest gap on the sheet at 68 to 48. Add in a defence and secondary both rated comfortably ahead of the Raiders', and the platform was there for exactly this sort of methodical, unspectacular win. Denver arrived on a five-game winning streak averaging 24.2 points a game, the Raiders on five straight losses conceding 25.6. Form matched form.

Alphr's model had Denver as 75 percent favourites, with a modest 1.3-point predicted margin and a combined total of 43. The actual margin blew out to seven, but the total landed at 41, within two points of the call. The lean was right, the ceiling on the Raiders was about where it looked pre-match, they just never had the ball control to change the arithmetic.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
| Denver Broncos | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 253 | Total Yards | **364** |
| **213** | Passing Yards | 212 |
| 40 | Rushing Yards | **152** |
| 25 | First Downs | **39** |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3 | Sacks Made | **4** |
| -2.7 | Offensive EPA | **11.2** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Denver Broncos to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 1.3 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 41, within 2 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Smith officiated this match (129 career games). The combined score of 41 points was 7 points below Shawn Smith's career average of 48. Denver Broncos bucked the trend, Las Vegas Raiders historically win 50% of games under Shawn Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $1.21 (edge -7.8%) — model probability 74.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Las Vegas Raiders +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Las Vegas Raiders by 1 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Denver Broncos here: 75% to see off Las Vegas Raiders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Denver Broncos sit 344 ELO points clear, 1646 to 1302. Form leans Denver Broncos' way: 5 from their last 5, against 0 for Las Vegas Raiders.

Denver Broncos own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Las Vegas Raiders by 1.3, with the two sides combining for about 43. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Denver Broncos to win, not to win big.

Las Vegas Raiders have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Denver Broncos took the most recent meeting 24-17 in 2025 Week 14.

Las Vegas Raiders went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 at home, averaging 14.2 points for and 25.4 against.

Denver Broncos went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-2 away, averaging 23.6 points for and 18.3 against.

Geno Smith starts under centre for Las Vegas Raiders, Bo Nix for Denver Broncos, with Pete Carroll and Sean Payton calling the shots.

The market has Denver Broncos favourites, Las Vegas Raiders $4.60 and Denver Broncos $1.21, with the spread at Denver Broncos -8.5 and the total at 40.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Las Vegas Raiders 8 · Denver Broncos 4 |
| Last meeting | Denver Broncos 24-17 (2025) |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 home |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 14.2 for · 25.4 against |
| Denver Broncos 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-2 away |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 23.6 for · 18.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Geno Smith · Bo Nix |
| Head coaches | Pete Carroll · Sean Payton |
| Market | Las Vegas Raiders $4.60 · Denver Broncos $1.21 |
| Spread | Denver Broncos -8.5 · total 40.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Smith |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Las Vegas Raiders

**Shawn Smith** — 129 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 3W–3L | 50% |
| Denver Broncos | 1W–6L | 14% |

Avg total: 47.5 pts · Home win %: 50% · Home bias: Neutral

When Shawn Smith officiates, Las Vegas Raiders have won 3 of 6 games (50%), significantly stronger than Denver Broncos's 1 from 7 (14%). Small sample (6 games for Las Vegas Raiders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 15.2pts | Avg Score | 24.2pts |
| 25.6pts | Avg Conceded | 18.2pts |
| -10.4pts | Avg Margin | 6.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | W9 L · W10 L · W11 L · W12 L · W13 L | 15.2 |
| Denver Broncos | W8 W · W9 W · W10 W · W11 W · W13 W | 24.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Denver Broncos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W14 | Las Vegas Raiders | 17 – 24 | Denver Broncos |
| 2025 | W10 | Denver Broncos | 10 – 7 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2024 | W12 | Las Vegas Raiders | 19 – 29 | Denver Broncos |
| 2024 | W5 | Denver Broncos | 34 – 18 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2023 | W18 | Las Vegas Raiders | 27 – 14 | Denver Broncos |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allegiant Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (0·3·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 6/6g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Brock Bowers | TE | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·2) | 1/3g | 4/13g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 26% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/22g | 20% | — | — |
| – | DJ Turner | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/10g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Geno Smith | QB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ian Thomas | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bech | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kenny Pickett | QB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Raheem Mostert | RB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/2g | 0/5g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Shedrick Jackson | WR | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Tyler Lockett | WR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 8 in 12g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·1·3·1·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.93 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 41' |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 6/13g | 3/4g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Troy Franklin | WR | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 23% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Adam Trautman | TE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.30 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Pat Bryant | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Adam Prentice | RB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lil'Jordan Humphrey | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Denver Broncos** (4 picks)
- ⚡ RJ Harvey 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 2 pass) · model 33% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Troy Franklin 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Evan Engram — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Broncos: 2 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: B.Nix, M.Mims

**Las Vegas Raiders** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Brock Bowers 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 26% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Raiders: 1 TD across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: S.Jackson

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Las Vegas Raiders 1302 · Denver Broncos 1646 · ELO difference: 343 in favour of Denver Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Las Vegas Raiders | Denver Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 38 | 55 | Denver Broncos +17 |
| Receiving Corps | 61 | 53 | Las Vegas Raiders +8 |
| Backfield | 41 | 50 | Denver Broncos +9 |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 61 | Denver Broncos +9 |
| Secondary | 54 | 65 | Denver Broncos +11 |
| Special Teams | 48 | 68 | Denver Broncos +20 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Denver Broncos predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-07 21:05 UTC (latest tip update)