# Jacksonville Jaguars v Indianapolis Colts — NFL Week 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Jacksonville Jaguars 36 – 19 Indianapolis Colts

_Jacksonville Jaguars pounce on Indianapolis Colts._

Half time: 28 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 50% / Indianapolis Colts 50% · TIAA Bank Stadium · Mon, 08 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Jacksonville Jaguars: Travis Etienne (5' Tipped ⚡), Jakobi Meyers (13'), Travis Etienne (18' Tipped ⚡), Tim Patrick (30') · Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor (11' Tipped ⚡), Riley Leonard (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 50% | Won |
| Indianapolis Colts | 50% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.7 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 14, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Jacksonville Jaguars 36–19 Indianapolis Colts in NFL Week 14 at TIAA Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Indianapolis Colts had the better backfield on paper, rated 85 to Jacksonville's 59, the widest gap on the entire positional sheet, and for a while Jonathan Taylor made that number look right. He ground out 74 yards on 21 carries and scored a touchdown, and the Colts even won the first downs count, 29 to 28. None of it was enough.

The problem was everywhere else. Indianapolis turned the ball over three times to Jacksonville's one, and turnovers like that will bury most teams. Riley Leonard threw a pick to go with a modest 18-of-29 for 145 yards, and Indianapolis finished with a team offensive EPA of minus 11.9 against Jacksonville's plus 5.5. That's a 17.4-point gap in expected value, and it explains a lot: one side moved the ball with purpose, the other kept handing it back.

Jacksonville came out fast. Travis Etienne opened the scoring, Taylor answered to make it 7-6, then Jakobi Meyers put Jacksonville up 13-7 late in the first quarter. It was 14-7 at the break of that quarter and Jacksonville never let up. Etienne's second touchdown, midway through the second quarter, made it 20-7, and Tim Patrick's score with 15 seconds left before half-time stretched it to 28-10. Jacksonville led by 18 at the main break, having scored 28 unanswered across large stretches of the first half while Indianapolis managed only Taylor's early touchdown and a field goal in reply.

The third quarter was quiet by comparison, Jacksonville's lead nudging from 28-10 to 28-13 by the end of it, but the damage from the first half was already done. Indianapolis got one more score late, Leonard finding paydirt himself with 1:56 left to make it 36-19, but by then it was tidying up rather than a rally.

Final score: Jacksonville Jaguars 36, Indianapolis Colts 19. A 17-point margin that never felt tight after half-time.

Jacksonville won the yardage battle too, 350 to 294, built on 247 through the air and 103 on the ground. Trevor Lawrence went 17-of-30 for 244 yards and two touchdowns, working efficiently rather than spectacularly. Brian Thomas Jr. was the game's leading target, just three catches but 87 yards, doing damage in chunks. Jacksonville also got a sack on defence, one more than Indianapolis managed, a small thing but in keeping with how the day went for both lines.

This one didn't line up with the pre-match numbers. Alphr's model had Indianapolis as 2.7-point favourites and pegged the combined total at 41, with ratings of 1529 to Jacksonville's 1507. The win probability call landed right, our model gave Jacksonville a genuine 50 percent chance, but the margin model whiffed badly, missing by well over a converted touchdown as Jacksonville ran out 17-point winners instead of the tight finish projected.

Form coming in hadn't screamed blowout either. Jacksonville arrived on a 4-1 run over its last five, Indianapolis just 2-3, and the average scoring gaps, 29.2 points for against 19.6 conceded for Jacksonville versus 25 for and 21.8 against for Indianapolis, hinted at a contest, not a rout. On the night, Jacksonville's turnover discipline and its 5.5 EPA figure did the talking, and Indianapolis's three giveaways did the rest.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 14 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 36 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 19 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| **350** | Total Yards | 294 |
| **247** | Passing Yards | 205 |
| **103** | Rushing Yards | 89 |
| 28 | First Downs | **29** |
| **1** | Turnovers | 3 |
| **1** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **5.5** | Offensive EPA | -11.9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Jacksonville Jaguars to win at 50% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.7 but the actual margin was 17 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

John Hussey officiated this match (181 career games). The combined score of 55 points was 9 points above John Hussey's career average of 46. Jacksonville Jaguars's victory aligns with John Hussey's historical trend, Jacksonville Jaguars have a 50% win rate under this referee. Jacksonville Jaguars's home victory fits John Hussey's profile, home teams win 66% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $2.14 (edge +3.4%) — model probability 50.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Indianapolis Colts by 3 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts. The model can't split them, landing on Jacksonville Jaguars at 50%. The ratings say otherwise: Indianapolis Colts sit 22 ELO points clear, 1529 to 1507, so the model is backing Jacksonville Jaguars against the ratings gap. Form leans Jacksonville Jaguars' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Indianapolis Colts.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Indianapolis Colts by 2.7, with the two sides combining for about 41. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Jacksonville Jaguars have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Jacksonville Jaguars took the most recent meeting 23-17 in 2025 Week 17.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 13-4 in 2025 so far, 7-2 at home, averaging 27.9 points for and 19.8 against.

Indianapolis Colts went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 27.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Trevor Lawrence starts under centre for Jacksonville Jaguars, Daniel Jones for Indianapolis Colts, with Liam Coen and Shane Steichen calling the shots.

The market has Indianapolis Colts favourites, Jacksonville Jaguars $2.14 and Indianapolis Colts $1.74, with the spread at Indianapolis Colts -2.5 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Jacksonville Jaguars 8 · Indianapolis Colts 4 |
| Last meeting | Jacksonville Jaguars 23-17 (2025) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 so far | 13-4 · 7-2 home |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 27.9 for · 19.8 against |
| Indianapolis Colts 2025 so far | 8-9 · 2-6 away |
| Indianapolis Colts scoring | 27.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Trevor Lawrence · Daniel Jones |
| Head coaches | Liam Coen · Shane Steichen |
| Market | Jacksonville Jaguars $2.14 · Indianapolis Colts $1.74 |
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts -2.5 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | John Hussey |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Jacksonville Jaguars

**John Hussey** — 181 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under John Hussey | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3W–3L | 50% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 4W–5L | 44% |

Avg total: 45.9 pts · Home win %: 66% · Home bias: Leans home

Jacksonville Jaguars hold a 6-point edge: 3W–3L (50%) vs Indianapolis Colts's 4W–5L (44%). Home teams win 66% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Jacksonville Jaguars).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 29.2pts | Avg Score | 25.0pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.8pts |
| 9.6pts | Avg Margin | 3.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W9 W · W10 L · W11 W · W12 W · W13 W | 29.2 |
| Indianapolis Colts | W8 W · W9 L · W10 W · W12 L · W13 L | 25.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Jacksonville Jaguars lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W17 | Indianapolis Colts | 17 – 23 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2025 | W14 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 36 – 19 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2024 | W18 | Indianapolis Colts | 26 – 23 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2024 | W5 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 37 – 34 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2023 | W6 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 37 – 20 | Indianapolis Colts |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at TIAA Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Travis Etienne | RB | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 3/6g | 12/28g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 18' |
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 41% | — | — |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 9/33g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 8/12g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 30% | — | 🏉 13' |
| – | Tim Patrick | WR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/6g | 20% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Brenton Strange | TE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 2/14g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Austin Trammell | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Mullens | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Quintin Morris | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |

**Indianapolis Colts** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jonathan Taylor | RB | 17 in 12g | 16/10g (3·0·3·1·3·3·0·3·0·0) | 4/7g | 0/4g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.47 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.20 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' |
| – | Michael Pittman | WR | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/9g | 2/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Daniel Jones | QB | 5 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Warren | TE | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 33% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Josh Downs | WR | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Alec Pierce | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/5g | 1/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ameer Abdullah | RB | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Ogletree | TE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Gould | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Laquon Treadwell | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Mo Alie-Cox | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Riley Leonard | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 59' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Indianapolis Colts** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jonathan Taylor 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 1 pass) · model 60% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Alec Pierce 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Michael Pittman 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Tyler Warren — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- Rest of the Colts: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: R.Leonard

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Travis Etienne 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 43% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- ⚡ Brian Thomas Jr. — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Jaguars: 13 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Meyers, T.Patrick

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Jacksonville Jaguars 1507 · Indianapolis Colts 1529 · ELO difference: 22 in favour of Indianapolis Colts

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Jacksonville Jaguars | Indianapolis Colts | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 46 | 47 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 59 | 55 | Even |
| Backfield | 59 | 85 | Indianapolis Colts +26 |
| Pass Rush | 54 | 56 | Even |
| Secondary | 56 | 54 | Even |
| Special Teams | 72 | 44 | Jacksonville Jaguars +28 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 50%** — Jacksonville Jaguars predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-07 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)