# Green Bay Packers v Chicago Bears — NFL Week 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Green Bay Packers 28 – 21 Chicago Bears

_Green Bay Packers hold off a fast-finishing Chicago Bears._

Half time: 14 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Green Bay Packers 75% / Chicago Bears 25% · Lambeau Field · Mon, 08 Dec, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Green Bay Packers: Christian Watson (21' Tipped ⚡), Bo Melton (30'), Christian Watson (39' Tipped ⚡), Josh Jacobs (57' Tipped ⚡) · Chicago Bears: Olamide Zaccheaus (37'), Colston Loveland (52')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 75% | Won |
| Chicago Bears | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.5 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 14, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Dec 2025, 08:25 am_

Green Bay Packers 28–21 Chicago Bears in NFL Week 14 at Lambeau Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Chicago Bears left Lambeau Field with the better first-down count, more rushing yards, and still nothing to show for it. They finished with 31 first downs to Green Bay's 26 and outrushed the Packers 138 to 117. On paper, that's a side that controlled the line of scrimmage. On the scoreboard, it's a 28-21 loss.

The problem was where the points came. Chicago didn't get on the board until 8:25 remaining in the third quarter, when Olamide Zaccheaus scored to make it 14-9. By then Green Bay already led 14-3 at the break, built on a Christian Watson touchdown and a late second-quarter score from B. Melton. Chicago spent the whole night playing from behind its own game plan.

Caleb Williams did what he could through the air, 19 of 35 for 186 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and Colston Loveland's touchdown with 8:05 left in the fourth actually put Chicago ahead 20-21 for all of about four and a half minutes. That was the closest the Bears got. Green Bay had an answer ready: Josh Jacobs punched one in with 3:37 to go, and the door shut.

Green Bay's night belonged to two names. Jordan Love went 17 of 25 for 234 yards and three touchdowns against one pick, a cleaner day than Williams managed despite throwing ten fewer times. Jacobs led every rusher on the field with 86 yards on 20 carries and the go-ahead score, doing exactly the kind of backfield damage Chicago was rated to win before kickoff, 63 to 56 in the pre-match backfield numbers. Christian Watson was the difference-maker on the perimeter: four catches for 89 yards and two touchdowns, more than making up for a receiving corps that graded out well behind Chicago's 61 to 51.

The efficiency numbers back up the eye test. Green Bay ran an offensive EPA of 12.2 against Chicago's 7.5, and that gap is really the story of the whole game: Chicago moved the chains more often, but Green Bay did more with fewer opportunities. One turnover apiece, one sack apiece, nothing separating the two sides on the ledger except who converted possessions into points.

Chicago arr

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| Chicago Bears | 0 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 21 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Green Bay Packers | Stat | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| **351** | Total Yards | 324 |
| **234** | Passing Yards | 186 |
| 117 | Rushing Yards | **138** |
| 26 | First Downs | **31** |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **12.2** | Offensive EPA | 7.5 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Green Bay Packers to win at 75% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Green Bay Packers by 8.5 vs the actual margin of 7 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 49, within 5 points. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Craig Wrolstad officiated this match (194 career games). The 49-point combined total was right in line with Craig Wrolstad's career average of 46. Green Bay Packers's victory aligns with Craig Wrolstad's historical trend, Green Bay Packers have a 80% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Green Bay Packers to win @ $1.33 (edge +0.1%) — model probability 75.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Chicago Bears +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 9 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Green Bay Packers here: 75% to see off Chicago Bears. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Green Bay Packers sit 114 ELO points clear, 1651 to 1537. Form leans Chicago Bears' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Green Bay Packers.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Green Bay Packers by 8.5, with the two sides combining for about 44. Green Bay Packers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Green Bay Packers have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Chicago Bears took the most recent meeting 31-27 in 2025 the Wild Card round.

Green Bay Packers went 9-7-1 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 23.0 points for and 21.2 against.

Chicago Bears went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 25.9 points for and 24.4 against.

Jordan Love starts under centre for Green Bay Packers, Caleb Williams for Chicago Bears, with Matt LaFleur and Ben Johnson calling the shots.

The market has Green Bay Packers favourites, Green Bay Packers $1.33 and Chicago Bears $3.45, with the spread at Green Bay Packers -6.5 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Green Bay Packers 9 · Chicago Bears 3 |
| Last meeting | Chicago Bears 31-27 (2025) |
| Green Bay Packers 2025 so far | 9-7-1 · 5-3 home |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 23.0 for · 21.2 against |
| Chicago Bears 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-4 away |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 25.9 for · 24.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jordan Love · Caleb Williams |
| Head coaches | Matt LaFleur · Ben Johnson |
| Market | Green Bay Packers $1.33 · Chicago Bears $3.45 |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -6.5 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Craig Wrolstad |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Green Bay Packers

**Craig Wrolstad** — 194 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Craig Wrolstad | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 8W–2L | 80% |
| Chicago Bears | 3W–10L | 23% |

Avg total: 45.6 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

When Craig Wrolstad officiates, Green Bay Packers have won 8 of 10 games (80%), significantly stronger than Chicago Bears's 3 from 13 (23%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Green Bay Packers | Stat | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 20.2pts | Avg Score | 29.0pts |
| 15.2pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| 5.0pts | Avg Margin | 4.6pts |
| 10.0d | Rest Days | 9.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | W9 L · W10 L · W11 W · W12 W · W13 W | 20.2 |
| Chicago Bears | W9 W · W10 W · W11 W · W12 W · W13 W | 29.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Chicago Bears lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | WC | Chicago Bears | 31 – 27 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2025 | W16 | Chicago Bears | 22 – 16 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2025 | W14 | Green Bay Packers | 28 – 21 | Chicago Bears |
| 2024 | W18 | Green Bay Packers | 22 – 24 | Chicago Bears |
| 2024 | W11 | Chicago Bears | 19 – 20 | Green Bay Packers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lambeau Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Green Bay Packers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Jacobs | RB | 11 in 11g | 10/10g (1·0·2·2·2·1·1·1·0·0) | 5/5g | 13/15g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.61 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.20 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' |
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 7/27g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Christian Watson | WR | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 2/4g | 11/23g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' 39' |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 1/2g | 5/18g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Reed | WR | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 7/18g | 36% | — | — |
| – | John FitzPatrick | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Josh Whyle | TE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/12g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Love | QB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/26g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Luke Musgrave | TE | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/16g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Golden | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Chicago Bears** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/8g | 1/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 43% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Caleb Williams | QB | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | DJ Moore | WR | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 1/6g | 1/4g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/10g | 0/5g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Durham Smythe | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Travis Homer | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Chicago Bears** (3 picks)
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 43% · no TD
- ⚡ Kyle Monangai 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- ⚡ DJ Moore 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Bears: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: O.Zaccheaus, C.Loveland

**Green Bay Packers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Josh Jacobs 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 53% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Romeo Doubs — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Christian Watson — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q2, Q3**
- Rest of the Packers: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: B.Melton

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Green Bay Packers 1651 · Chicago Bears 1537 · ELO difference: 114 in favour of Green Bay Packers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 59 | 60 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 51 | 61 | Chicago Bears +10 |
| Backfield | 56 | 63 | Chicago Bears +7 |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 51 | Even |
| Secondary | 56 | 58 | Even |
| Special Teams | 53 | 68 | Chicago Bears +15 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Green Bay Packers predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-07 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)