# Detroit Lions v Dallas Cowboys — NFL Week 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Detroit Lions 44 – 30 Dallas Cowboys

_Detroit Lions run down Dallas Cowboys._

Half time: 20 – 9 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Detroit Lions 89% / Dallas Cowboys 11% · Ford Field · Fri, 05 Dec, 12:15 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs (13' Tipped ⚡), David Montgomery (26' Tipped ⚡), Isaac TeSlaa (31'), Jahmyr Gibbs (53' Tipped ⚡), Jahmyr Gibbs (58' Tipped ⚡) · Dallas Cowboys: Jameson Williams (35' Tipped ⚡), Ryan Flournoy (51')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 89% | Won |
| Dallas Cowboys | 11% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.2 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 14, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Dec 2025, 12:15 pm_

Detroit Lions 44–30 Dallas Cowboys in NFL Week 14 at Ford Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Detroit led from the first quarter and never gave it back, but Dallas made them work for it right up until the Cowboys ran out of road. Final score 44-30 at Ford Field, and the gap between "in the game" and "out of it" moved a fair bit before the Lions shut the door for good.

Jahmyr Gibbs opened the scoring with 2:18 left in the first, and Detroit led 10-3 at the end of the quarter. David Montgomery added another before half-time to make it 20-9, and Isaac TeSlaa's touchdown early in the third stretched things to 26-9. At that point it looked like a rout in the making.

Dallas didn't fold. Javonte Williams got the Cowboys back to 27-15, then Ryan Flournoy's touchdown with 9:59 left in the fourth pulled them to within five, 30-25. That's the moment this game actually had some tension. A five-point margin with a quarter to play against a Detroit offence that had been humming all night is not nothing.

It didn't last. Gibbs scored again at 7:22 to make it 36-27, then again at 2:25 to put it out of reach at 43-30, with the extra point rounding out the final 44-30 margin. Three touchdowns for Gibbs on the night, and the last two came exactly when Dallas had clawed its way back into range. That's the backfield gap (67 to 50 in the pre-match ratings) showing up on the scoreboard when it mattered most.

The yardage sheet actually favours Dallas, and by a decent

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 10 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 44 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Detroit Lions | Stat | Dallas Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 418 | Total Yards | **467** |
| 309 | Passing Yards | **376** |
| **109** | Rushing Yards | 91 |
| 28 | First Downs | **41** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 3 |
| **5** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **18.3** | Offensive EPA | 1.4 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Detroit Lions to win at 89% probability. The predicted margin of 8.2 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Hochuli officiated this match (130 career games). The combined score of 74 points was 29 points above Shawn Hochuli's career average of 45. Detroit Lions bucked the trend, Dallas Cowboys historically win 50% of games under Shawn Hochuli, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Detroit Lions to win @ $1.52 (edge +23.4%) — model probability 89.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Detroit Lions -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 55.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Detroit Lions by 8 · Predicted total: 61

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Detroit Lions here: 89% to see off Dallas Cowboys. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Detroit Lions sit 113 ELO points clear, 1623 to 1511. Form leans Dallas Cowboys' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Detroit Lions.

Detroit Lions own the matchup too, leading 2 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO) and Secondary. The margin model has Detroit Lions by 8.2, with the two sides combining for about 61. Detroit Lions to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Dallas Cowboys have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Detroit Lions took the most recent meeting 44-30 in 2025 Week 14.

Detroit Lions went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 28.3 points for and 24.3 against.

Dallas Cowboys went 7-9-1 in 2025 so far, 3-6 away, averaging 27.7 points for and 30.1 against.

Jared Goff starts under centre for Detroit Lions, Dak Prescott for Dallas Cowboys, with Dan Campbell and Brian Schottenheimer calling the shots.

The market has Detroit Lions favourites, Detroit Lions $1.52 and Dallas Cowboys $2.60, with the spread at Detroit Lions -3.5 and the total at 55.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Detroit Lions 4 · Dallas Cowboys 8 |
| Last meeting | Detroit Lions 44-30 (2025) |
| Detroit Lions 2025 so far | 9-8 · 5-3 home |
| Detroit Lions scoring | 28.3 for · 24.3 against |
| Dallas Cowboys 2025 so far | 7-9-1 · 3-6 away |
| Dallas Cowboys scoring | 27.7 for · 30.1 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jared Goff · Dak Prescott |
| Head coaches | Dan Campbell · Brian Schottenheimer |
| Market | Detroit Lions $1.52 · Dallas Cowboys $2.60 |
| Spread | Detroit Lions -3.5 · total 55.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Hochuli |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dallas Cowboys

**Shawn Hochuli** — 130 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Hochuli | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 4W–5L | 44% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 4W–4L | 50% |

Avg total: 44.9 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

Dallas Cowboys hold a 6-point edge: 4W–4L (50%) vs Detroit Lions's 4W–5L (44%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Detroit Lions | Stat | Dallas Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 27.0pts | Avg Score | 25.8pts |
| 24.6pts | Avg Conceded | 27.2pts |
| 2.4pts | Avg Margin | -1.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | W9 L · W10 W · W11 L · W12 W · W13 L | 27.0 |
| Dallas Cowboys | W8 L · W9 L · W11 W · W12 W · W13 W | 25.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dallas Cowboys lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W14 | Detroit Lions | 44 – 30 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2024 | W6 | Dallas Cowboys | 9 – 47 | Detroit Lions |
| 2023 | W17 | Dallas Cowboys | 20 – 19 | Detroit Lions |
| 2022 | W7 | Dallas Cowboys | 24 – 6 | Detroit Lions |
| 2019 | W11 | Detroit Lions | 27 – 35 | Dallas Cowboys |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ford Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Detroit Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 13 in 12g | 12/10g (2·1·1·0·2·0·3·0·3·0) | 0/2g | 28/25g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.37 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.80 AI 16% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 13' 53' 58' |
| – | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 9 in 12g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 25/41g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | David Montgomery | RB | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 17/27g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.93 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' |
| – | Jameson Williams | WR | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 10/25g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Isaac TeSlaa | WR | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 33% | — | 🏉 31' |
| – | Anthony Firkser | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Saylors | RB | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jared Goff | QB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/44g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Malik Cunningham | WR | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ross Dwelley | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sione Vaki | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Kennedy | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |

**Dallas Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Javonte Williams | RB | 10 in 12g | 7/10g (0·1·2·0·1·2·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.78 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' |
| – | George Pickens | WR | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (1·2·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jake Ferguson | TE | 7 in 12g | 7/10g (0·1·2·1·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | CeeDee Lamb | WR | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 37% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Dak Prescott | QB | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Flournoy | WR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Brevyn Spann-Ford | TE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Luepke | RB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | KaVontae Turpin | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Malik Davis | RB | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Jonathan Mingo | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Schoonmaker | TE | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Dallas Cowboys** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Javonte Williams 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 55% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ George Pickens 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ CeeDee Lamb — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- Rest of the Cowboys: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: R.Flournoy

**Detroit Lions** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jahmyr Gibbs 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 2 pass) · model 62% · **scored Q1, Q4, Q4**
- ⚡ Amon-Ra St. Brown 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- ⚡ David Montgomery — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 38% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Lions: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: I.TeSlaa

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Detroit Lions 1623 · Dallas Cowboys 1511 · ELO difference: 113 in favour of Detroit Lions

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Detroit Lions | Dallas Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 60 | 57 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 52 | 56 | Even |
| Backfield | 67 | 50 | Detroit Lions +17 |
| Pass Rush | 54 | 52 | Even |
| Secondary | 59 | 52 | Detroit Lions +7 |
| Special Teams | 64 | 60 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 89%** — Detroit Lions predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 61 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-05 01:15 UTC (latest tip update)