# Cleveland Browns v Tennessee Titans — NFL Week 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cleveland Browns 29 – 31 Tennessee Titans

_Tennessee Titans fight back to flex on Cleveland Browns._

Half time: 17 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cleveland Browns 87% / Tennessee Titans 13% · FirstEnergy Stadium · Mon, 08 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Cleveland Browns: David Njoku (16' Tipped ⚡), Jerry Jeudy (28' Tipped ⚡), Shedeur Sanders (56'), Fannin (59') · Tennessee Titans: Elic Ayomanor (6'), Tony Pollard (14' Tipped ⚡), Tony Pollard (45' Tipped ⚡), Chimere Dike (51' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 87% | Lost |
| Tennessee Titans | 13% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.4 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 14, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Cleveland Browns 29–31 Tennessee Titans in NFL Week 14 at FirstEnergy Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Tennessee Titans beat Cleveland Browns 31-29 at FirstEnergy Stadium. Take the yardage sheet away from that scoreline and you'd swear it went the other way.

Cleveland ran up 425 total yards to Tennessee's 301. They led first downs 31 to 19. Offensive EPA had them at plus-2.6 against Tennessee's minus-5.9, which is about as clear a gap as that stat produces. By most measures that's a side that should have won comfortably. Instead they lost by two.

The explanation sits in two numbers: rushing yards and turnovers. Tennessee ran for 184 yards, Cleveland managed 61, and Tony Pollard alone put up 161 of those on 25 carries with two touchdowns. That's not a complementary running game, that's the engine. Add a turnover margin that went 2-1 against Cleveland and you've got a team that moved the ball at will but kept handing Tennessee the extra possession or the short field to make it count.

The scoring arc backs that up. Elic Ayomanor and then Pollard had Tennessee out 14-3 after the first quarter, and it looked like it might get away from Cleveland early. Njoku and Jeudy pulled them level and then in front by half-time, 17-14, so credit where it's due, Shedeur Sanders and that passing game clawed back a two-score deficit inside a quarter. But Pollard's second touchdown late in the third put Tennessee back in front, Chimere Dike stretched it to 27-17 in the fourth, and even when Sanders and Harold Fannin Jr. answered with late touchdowns to make it 29-31, Cleveland never got the ball back with enough time to find one more.

Sanders finished 23 of 42 for 364 yards and three touchdowns, but the one interception mattered more than the header stats let on given how tight this finished. Cam Ward was far quieter by comparison, 14 of 28 for 117 yards and two touchdowns with a pick of his own, and didn't need to be anything more than that with Pollard doing the heavy lifting on the ground. Fannin was Cleveland's best target, eight catches for 114 yards and a score, further proof the passing game worked. It just wasn't enough to cover for what happened on early downs on the ground and after the ball changed hands.

The pre-match read had Cleveland at 87% to win, expected to cover by 5.4 points, with a total near 39. The margin call wasn't bad, in the end it was a two-point game against a predicted 5.4. The total blew past it though, 60 points scored against a projected 39, a function of both sides finding the end zone in bursts rather than the stalemate the model priced in. Cleveland's pass rush was rated well clear of Tennessee's coming in, 74 to 60, yet it barely showed against a Titans backfield that came in as the year's form outlier at zero wins in five and still ran through them. Sometimes the side that should win the stat sheet doesn't win the game, and Tennessee just proved it on the road.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 3 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 29 |
| Tennessee Titans | 14 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 31 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cleveland Browns | Stat | Tennessee Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **425** | Total Yards | 301 |
| **364** | Passing Yards | 117 |
| 61 | Rushing Yards | **184** |
| **31** | First Downs | 19 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **1** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| **2.6** | Offensive EPA | -5.9 |

**Model Report Card**

Tennessee Titans defied the model's 87% prediction for Cleveland Browns, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.4 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The game's 60 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 39. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 33.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Carl Cheffers officiated this match (286 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 15 points above Carl Cheffers's career average of 45. Tennessee Titans's victory aligns with Carl Cheffers's historical trend, Tennessee Titans have a 46% win rate under this referee. Despite Carl Cheffers's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Tennessee Titans prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cleveland Browns to win @ $1.49 (edge +20.3%) — model probability 87.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cleveland Browns -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 33.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cleveland Browns by 5 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Cleveland Browns here: 87% to see off Tennessee Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Cleveland Browns sit 120 ELO points clear, 1362 to 1242. Form leans Cleveland Browns' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Tennessee Titans.

Cleveland Browns own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Recent Form. The margin model has Cleveland Browns by 5.4, with the two sides combining for about 39. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Cleveland Browns to win, not to win big.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Tennessee Titans taking the most recent 31-29 in 2025 Week 14.

Cleveland Browns went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 16.4 points for and 22.3 against.

Tennessee Titans went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 16.7 points for and 28.1 against.

Shedeur Sanders starts under centre for Cleveland Browns, Cam Ward for Tennessee Titans, with Kevin Stefanski and Brian Callahan calling the shots.

The market has Cleveland Browns favourites, Cleveland Browns $1.49 and Tennessee Titans $2.70, with the spread at Cleveland Browns -4.5 and the total at 33.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Cleveland Browns 6 · Tennessee Titans 6 |
| Last meeting | Tennessee Titans 31-29 (2025) |
| Cleveland Browns 2025 so far | 5-12 · 3-6 home |
| Cleveland Browns scoring | 16.4 for · 22.3 against |
| Tennessee Titans 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-6 away |
| Tennessee Titans scoring | 16.7 for · 28.1 against |
| Quarterbacks | Shedeur Sanders · Cam Ward |
| Head coaches | Kevin Stefanski · Brian Callahan |
| Market | Cleveland Browns $1.49 · Tennessee Titans $2.70 |
| Spread | Cleveland Browns -4.5 · total 33.5 |
| Referee | Carl Cheffers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Tennessee Titans

**Carl Cheffers** — 286 career games since 2008.

| Team | Record under Carl Cheffers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 3W–10L | 23% |
| Tennessee Titans | 6W–7L | 46% |

Avg total: 44.9 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Carl Cheffers officiates, Tennessee Titans have won 6 of 13 games (46%), significantly stronger than Cleveland Browns's 3 from 13 (23%). Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cleveland Browns | Stat | Tennessee Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 16.2pts | Avg Score | 14.8pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Conceded | 27.2pts |
| -7.4pts | Avg Margin | -12.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | W8 L · W10 L · W11 L · W12 W · W13 L | 16.2 |
| Tennessee Titans | W8 L · W9 L · W11 L · W12 L · W13 L | 14.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Tennessee Titans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W14 | Cleveland Browns | 29 – 31 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2023 | W3 | Cleveland Browns | 27 – 3 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2020 | W13 | Tennessee Titans | 35 – 41 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2019 | W1 | Cleveland Browns | 13 – 43 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2017 | W7 | Cleveland Browns | 9 – 12 | Tennessee Titans |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at FirstEnergy Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cleveland Browns** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Quinshon Judkins | RB | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·3·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 4/5g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.03 AI 44% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $4.90 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | David Njoku | TE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 13/55g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.00 AI 19% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' |
| – | Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 27% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cedric Tillman | WR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/16g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Sampson | RB | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jerry Jeudy | WR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/14g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.00 AI 20% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' |
| – | Blake Whiteheart | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Gage Larvadain | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Bond | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jerome Ford | RB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 7/26g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Malachi Corley | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Shedeur Sanders | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 56' |

**Tennessee Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chimere Dike | WR | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.80 AI 17% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $19.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| – | Elic Ayomanor | WR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Tony Pollard | RB | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.30 AI 24% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $12.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' 45' |
| – | Cam Ward | QB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | David Martin-Robinson | TE | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Gunnar Helm | TE | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Tyjae Spears | RB | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Van Jefferson | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Chig Okonkwo | TE | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | James Proche | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Julius Chestnut | RB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Tennessee Titans** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Tony Pollard 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 24% · **scored Q1, Q3**
- ⚡ Chimere Dike 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 17% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Titans: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: E.Ayomanor

**Cleveland Browns** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Quinshon Judkins 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 44% · no TD
- ⚡ Harold Fannin Jr. 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 27% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Jerry Jeudy — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 20% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ David Njoku — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 19% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Browns: 2 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: S.Sanders

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cleveland Browns 1362 · Tennessee Titans 1242 · ELO difference: 120 in favour of Cleveland Browns

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Cleveland Browns | Tennessee Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 37 | 40 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 44 | 48 | Even |
| Backfield | 42 | 39 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 74 | 60 | Cleveland Browns +14 |
| Secondary | 51 | 52 | Even |
| Special Teams | 50 | 52 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Cleveland Browns |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Cleveland Browns |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Cleveland Browns |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 87%** — Cleveland Browns predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-07 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)