# Buffalo Bills v Cincinnati Bengals — NFL Week 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Buffalo Bills 39 – 34 Cincinnati Bengals

_Buffalo Bills fight back to charge down Cincinnati Bengals from 10 down._

Half time: 11 – 21 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Buffalo Bills 77% / Cincinnati Bengals 23% · New Era Field · Mon, 08 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Buffalo Bills: Khalil Shakir (23'), Dalton Kincaid (36' Tipped ⚡), Josh Allen (53' Tipped ⚡), Christian Benford (55'), Jackson Hawes (57') · Cincinnati Bengals: Chase Brown (9' Tipped ⚡), Tee Higgins (17' Tipped ⚡), Chase Brown (27' Tipped ⚡), Mike Gesicki (52'), Tee Higgins (58' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 77% | Won |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 23% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.9 predicted → 5 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 14, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Buffalo Bills 39–34 Cincinnati Bengals in NFL Week 14 at New Era Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two different ideas about how to move a football, and only one of them was still standing at the final whistle. Cincinnati Bengals wanted first downs and yards through the air, sharp and quick, Joe Burrow throwing 36 times for 284. Buffalo Bills wanted the ball on the deck and the clock ticking, and finished with 183 rushing yards making up 42% of their total output. Final score: Buffalo Bills 39, Cincinnati Bengals 34.

The Bengals actually won the volume battle. Forty first downs to 33, more total plays, and a game plan built around getting Burrow into rhythm. It worked well enough that Cincinnati led 21-11 at the break, with Chase Brown and Tee Higgins both finding the end zone before half-time and Brown scoring twice inside the first half alone. Buffalo were chasing a scoreboard that didn't match the tape.

Then the fourth quarter happened. Buffalo trailed 18-21 heading into it, gave up a Mike Gesicki touchdown to go down 18-27, and still finished the term with four touchdowns of their own, Josh Allen, Christian Benford, Jackson Hawes and a late Higgins score from Cincinnati that only mattered for pride. From 8:49 to 3:09 remaining, Buffalo scored 21 unanswered points. That's the passage that won it.

The stat sheet explains why Buffalo could afford to be patient early and ruthless late. Offensive EPA had them at 14.8 to Cincinnati's 6.8, a gap of 8.0 that says plainly: every time Buffalo had the ball, they did more with it. Turnovers told the same story from the other side, Cincinnati coughing it up twice to Buffalo's one, and Burrow's two interceptions sit right there in his line alongside the four touchdown passes. Yards without value.

Individually, Allen was economical rather than explosive: 22 of 28 for 251 and three touchdowns, none of the strain Burrow was under despite throwing eight fewer times. James Cook did the dirty work on the ground, 80 yards on 18 carries, and Dawson Knox was the top target in the building with six catches for 93 yards. Cincinnati's pass rush was the one area where they had the clear edge, three sacks to Buffalo's one, but it wasn't enough to offset what Buffalo were doing underneath it.

Cincinnati arrived on the back of one of the ugliest recent runs in the competition, LLLLW across their last five, conceding an average of 32 points a game. That defensive form showed up again here. Buffalo, by contrast, came in 3-2 across their last five with a positive average margin, and the special teams gap pre-match, 60 to Cincinnati's 77, looked like the one clear Bengals advantage on paper. It didn't turn up where it mattered.

Alphr's model had Buffalo at 77% to win and picked the margin almost to the point, 4.9 against an actual 5. The total was the one miss, 55 points projected against 73 delivered, and a game that traded 21 unanswered points in the last quarter alone will do that to a forecast. Ball control got there in the end. Ambition just ran out of time.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 3 | 8 | 7 | 21 | 39 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 7 | 14 | 0 | 13 | 34 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Buffalo Bills | Stat | Cincinnati Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| **434** | Total Yards | 346 |
| 251 | Passing Yards | **284** |
| **183** | Rushing Yards | 62 |
| 33 | First Downs | **40** |
| **1** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| **14.8** | Offensive EPA | 6.8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Buffalo Bills to win at 77% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Buffalo Bills by 4.9 vs the actual margin of 5 points. The game's 73 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 55. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Rogers officiated this match (92 career games). The combined score of 73 points was 27 points above Brad Rogers's career average of 46. Buffalo Bills bucked the trend, Cincinnati Bengals historically win 75% of games under Brad Rogers, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Buffalo Bills to win @ $1.35 (edge +2.6%) — model probability 76.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cincinnati Bengals +6 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 54.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Buffalo Bills by 5 · Predicted total: 55

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Buffalo Bills here: 77% to see off Cincinnati Bengals. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Buffalo Bills sit 178 ELO points clear, 1636 to 1458. Form leans Buffalo Bills' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Cincinnati Bengals.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Buffalo Bills by 4.9, with the two sides combining for about 55. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Buffalo Bills to win, not to win big.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Buffalo Bills taking the most recent 39-34 in 2025 Week 14.

Buffalo Bills went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-2 at home, averaging 28.3 points for and 21.5 against.

Cincinnati Bengals went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-5 away, averaging 24.4 points for and 28.9 against.

Josh Allen starts under centre for Buffalo Bills, Joe Burrow for Cincinnati Bengals, with Sean McDermott and Zac Taylor calling the shots.

Cincinnati Bengals come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Buffalo Bills favourites, Buffalo Bills $1.35 and Cincinnati Bengals $3.30, with the spread at Buffalo Bills -6 and the total at 54.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Buffalo Bills 6 · Cincinnati Bengals 6 |
| Last meeting | Buffalo Bills 39-34 (2025) |
| Buffalo Bills 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-2 home |
| Buffalo Bills scoring | 28.3 for · 21.5 against |
| Cincinnati Bengals 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-5 away |
| Cincinnati Bengals scoring | 24.4 for · 28.9 against |
| Quarterbacks | Josh Allen · Joe Burrow |
| Head coaches | Sean McDermott · Zac Taylor |
| Rest | Buffalo Bills 7d · Cincinnati Bengals 10d |
| Market | Buffalo Bills $1.35 · Cincinnati Bengals $3.30 |
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -6 · total 54.5 |
| Referee | Brad Rogers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Cincinnati Bengals

**Brad Rogers** — 92 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Brad Rogers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 0W–1L | 0% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3W–1L | 75% |

Avg total: 45.5 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Rogers officiates, Cincinnati Bengals have won 3 of 4 games (75%), significantly stronger than Buffalo Bills's 0 from 1 (0%). Small sample (1 games for Buffalo Bills).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Buffalo Bills | Stat | Cincinnati Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 26.0pts | Avg Score | 28.8pts |
| 22.6pts | Avg Conceded | 32.0pts |
| 3.4pts | Avg Margin | -3.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | W9 W · W10 L · W11 W · W12 L · W13 W | 26.0 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | W8 L · W9 L · W11 L · W12 L · W13 W | 28.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cincinnati Bengals lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W14 | Buffalo Bills | 39 – 34 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2023 | W9 | Cincinnati Bengals | 24 – 18 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2022 | DIV | Buffalo Bills | 10 – 27 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2019 | W3 | Buffalo Bills | 21 – 17 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2017 | W5 | Cincinnati Bengals | 20 – 16 | Buffalo Bills |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at New Era Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Buffalo Bills** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Allen | QB | 11 in 12g | 9/10g (0·1·0·0·2·2·0·3·0·1) | 2/3g | 45/69g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.65 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 53' |
| – | James Cook | RB | 9 in 12g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 20/35g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.53 AI 52% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.10 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dalton Kincaid | TE | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 8/22g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 36' |
| – | Keon Coleman | WR | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 4/13g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Khalil Shakir | WR | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 9/34g | 26% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Jackson Hawes | TE | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 22% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Ray Davis | RB | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 5/16g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Ty Johnson | RB | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/23g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Dawson Knox | TE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 15/50g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tyrell Shavers | WR | 1 in 8g | 2/9g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Gabe Davis | WR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 17/37g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Reggie Gilliam | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/19g | 2% | — | — |

**Cincinnati Bengals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Tee Higgins | WR | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·2·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 58' |
| – | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.82 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Chase Brown | RB | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' 27' |
| – | Noah Fant | TE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Andrei Iosivas | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Tanner Hudson | TE | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Jones | WR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Samaje Perine | RB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Joe Burrow | QB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mike Gesicki | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 1/7g | 8% | — | 🏉 52' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Cincinnati Bengals** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Chase Brown 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 40% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- ⚡ Ja'Marr Chase 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Tee Higgins — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 34% · **scored Q2, Q4**
- Rest of the Bengals: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Gesicki

**Buffalo Bills** (3 picks)
- ⚡ James Cook 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 52% · no TD
- ⚡ Josh Allen 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (6 rush · 0 pass) · model 44% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Dalton Kincaid — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 31% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Bills: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Shakir, C.Benford, J.Hawes

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Buffalo Bills 1636 · Cincinnati Bengals 1458 · ELO difference: 178 in favour of Buffalo Bills

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Buffalo Bills | Cincinnati Bengals | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 67 | 66 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 54 | 56 | Even |
| Backfield | 54 | 59 | Cincinnati Bengals +5 |
| Pass Rush | 46 | 51 | Cincinnati Bengals +5 |
| Secondary | 56 | 57 | Even |
| Special Teams | 60 | 77 | Cincinnati Bengals +17 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |

**Model Confidence: 77%** — Buffalo Bills predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 55 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-07 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)