# Baltimore Ravens v Pittsburgh Steelers — NFL Week 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Baltimore Ravens 22 – 27 Pittsburgh Steelers

_Pittsburgh Steelers steamroll a gallant Baltimore Ravens._

Half time: 9 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Baltimore Ravens 88% / Pittsburgh Steelers 12% · M&T Bank Stadium · Mon, 08 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson (30'), Isaiah Likely (38') · Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Rodgers (8'), Kenny Gainwell (24'), Jaylen Warren (42' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 88% | Lost |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 12% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.5 predicted → 5 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 14, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Baltimore Ravens 22–27 Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL Week 14 at M&T Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Baltimore led the yardage battle before the game even finished, but they didn't lead the scoreboard when it mattered. At half-time it was Pittsburgh Steelers 17, Baltimore Ravens 9, and the shape of that gap barely moved all night. Final score: Steelers 27, Ravens 22.

The Ravens came out of the sheds and got within four, Isaiah Likely's touchdown early in the third making it 15-20. It didn't last. Jaylen Warren answered a few minutes later and Pittsburgh had it back out to 26-16 by the 3:38 mark, then closed the quarter 27-16. Lamar Jackson's second score of the night, this one on the ground, tightened it to the final 22-27, but that was as close as it got. No answer after that.

Which makes the stat sheet a strange read against the result. Baltimore ran up 436 total yards to Pittsburgh's 318, dominated the ground game 217 to 34, and piled up 28 first downs against 18. Derrick Henry did his job, 94 yards on 25 carries. None of it mattered enough, because the Steelers were simply sharper with the ball when they had it: plus-12.8 in offensive EPA, a gap that tells you Pittsburgh's fewer snaps were doing a lot more damage than Baltimore's many.

Turnovers were the difference maker in miniature. One apiece isn't a landslide on paper, but Baltimore's giveaway came with Jackson throwing a pick to go with his 19-of-35 for 219 yards and a touchdown, while Rodgers went the other way, 23-of-34 for 284 and a score with nothing to show against him. Add two sacks for Pittsburgh's pass rush against zero for Baltimore's, and you've got a Steelers defence that hit the moments that counted even while getting outmuscled on the ground. DK Metcalf's 7 catches for 148 yards were the loudest individual number of the night, and they came from the losing side.

None of this fits the pre-match picture. Baltimore rated stronger in every positional bucket on the sheet, secondary 65 to 59, special teams 66 to 56, even the tight calls at quarterback and the backfield. The form line backed it up too: Ravens 4-1 across their last five with a plus-6.4 average margin, Steelers 2-3 and minus-1.6. Alphr's model had Baltimore at 1552 to Pittsburgh's 1490, expected them to win by 6.5, and gave them an 88% chance of doing exactly that.

Instead Pittsburgh won by 5, which is the odd wrinkle here: the model's margin wasn't far off at all, just pointed at the wrong team entirely. Baltimore did most things a winning side does, more yards, more first downs, more explosive running, and still walked away with a loss. Sometimes the team that wins the stat sheet loses the game. Pittsburgh will take the four points and not lose sleep over how it looked on paper.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 3 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 22 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 27 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | Pittsburgh Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| **436** | Total Yards | 318 |
| 219 | Passing Yards | **284** |
| **217** | Rushing Yards | 34 |
| **28** | First Downs | 18 |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| 0.7 | Offensive EPA | **13.4** |

**Model Report Card**

Pittsburgh Steelers defied the model's 88% prediction for Baltimore Ravens, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 6.5 was reasonable against the actual 5-point result. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Moore officiated this match (15 career games). The 49-point combined total was right in line with Alex Moore's career average of 51. Despite Alex Moore's 67% career home-team win rate, the away side Pittsburgh Steelers prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.37 (edge +15.2%) — model probability 88.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Baltimore Ravens -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 7 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Baltimore Ravens here: 88% to see off Pittsburgh Steelers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Baltimore Ravens sit 62 ELO points clear, 1552 to 1490. Form leans Baltimore Ravens' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Pittsburgh Steelers.

Baltimore Ravens own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Baltimore Ravens by 6.5, with the two sides combining for about 38. Baltimore Ravens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Pittsburgh Steelers have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Pittsburgh Steelers took the most recent meeting 26-24 in 2025 Week 18.

Baltimore Ravens went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 24.9 points for and 23.4 against.

Pittsburgh Steelers went 10-7 in 2025 so far, 4-4 away, averaging 23.4 points for and 22.8 against.

Lamar Jackson starts under centre for Baltimore Ravens, Aaron Rodgers for Pittsburgh Steelers, with John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin calling the shots.

Baltimore Ravens come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Baltimore Ravens favourites, Baltimore Ravens $1.37 and Pittsburgh Steelers $3.20, with the spread at Baltimore Ravens -5.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Baltimore Ravens 3 · Pittsburgh Steelers 9 |
| Last meeting | Pittsburgh Steelers 26-24 (2025) |
| Baltimore Ravens 2025 so far | 8-9 · 3-6 home |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 24.9 for · 23.4 against |
| Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 so far | 10-7 · 4-4 away |
| Pittsburgh Steelers scoring | 23.4 for · 22.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Lamar Jackson · Aaron Rodgers |
| Head coaches | John Harbaugh · Mike Tomlin |
| Rest | Baltimore Ravens 10d · Pittsburgh Steelers 7d |
| Market | Baltimore Ravens $1.37 · Pittsburgh Steelers $3.20 |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -5.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Alex Moore |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Alex Moore** — 15 career games since 2025.

| Team | Record under Alex Moore | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 0W–0L | 0% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0W–0L | 0% |

Avg total: 50.8 pts · Home win %: 67% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Alex Moore, Baltimore Ravens 0W–0L (0%) and Pittsburgh Steelers 0W–0L (0%). Games average 50.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 67% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (0 games for Baltimore Ravens).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | Pittsburgh Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 23.0pts | Avg Score | 21.2pts |
| 16.6pts | Avg Conceded | 22.8pts |
| 6.4pts | Avg Margin | -1.6pts |
| 10.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | W9 W · W10 W · W11 W · W12 W · W13 L | 23.0 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | W9 W · W10 L · W11 W · W12 L · W13 L | 21.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Pittsburgh Steelers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 26 – 24 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2025 | W14 | Baltimore Ravens | 22 – 27 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2024 | WC | Baltimore Ravens | 28 – 14 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2024 | W16 | Baltimore Ravens | 34 – 17 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2024 | W11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 18 – 16 | Baltimore Ravens |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at M&T Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Baltimore Ravens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 10 in 12g | 8/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·2·1) | 5/6g | 20/18g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.72 AI 52% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.10 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 1/12g | 28/63g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Charlie Kolar | TE | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/18g | 15% | — | — |
| – | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 2 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/9g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Rashod Bateman | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 7/34g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Keaton Mitchell | RB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/12g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Lamar Jackson | QB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 20/60g | 16% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 6/25g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Isaiah Likely | TE | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 8/30g | 24% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Ricard | RB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 4/36g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | DK Metcalf | WR | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 26% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jaylen Warren | RB | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' |
| – | Kenny Gainwell | RB | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 24' |
| – | Pat Freiermuth | TE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 0/5g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $7.25 AI 21% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Calvin Austin III | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jonnu Smith | TE | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Ben Skowronek | WR | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Connor Heyward | RB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Darnell Washington | TE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Aaron Rodgers | QB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 2% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Adam Thielen | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Kaleb Johnson | RB | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/3g | 18% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jaylen Warren 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 40% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ DK Metcalf 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- ⚡ Pat Freiermuth — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 21% · no TD
- Rest of the Steelers: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: A.Rodgers, K.Gainwell

**Baltimore Ravens** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 52% · no TD
- ⚡ Zay Flowers 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Mark Andrews — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- Rest of the Ravens: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: L.Jackson, I.Likely

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Baltimore Ravens 1552 · Pittsburgh Steelers 1490 · ELO difference: 62 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Baltimore Ravens | Pittsburgh Steelers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 40 | 36 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 49 | 46 | Even |
| Backfield | 57 | 56 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 55 | Even |
| Secondary | 65 | 59 | Baltimore Ravens +6 |
| Special Teams | 66 | 56 | Baltimore Ravens +10 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Baltimore Ravens |

**Model Confidence: 88%** — Baltimore Ravens predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r14-baltimore-ravens-v-pittsburgh-steelers
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-12-07 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)