# Atlanta Falcons v Seattle Seahawks — NFL Week 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Atlanta Falcons 9 – 37 Seattle Seahawks

_Seattle Seahawks put Atlanta Falcons to the sword._

Half time: 6 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Atlanta Falcons 23% / Seattle Seahawks 77% · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Mon, 08 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Atlanta Falcons: none · Seattle Seahawks: Rashid Shaheed (30'), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (39' Tipped ⚡), Cooper Kupp (48'), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (52' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 77% | Won |
| Atlanta Falcons | 23% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.5 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 14, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Atlanta Falcons 9–37 Seattle Seahawks in NFL Week 14 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two different game plans wrapped up in one final score. Atlanta wanted this tight and low, content to trade field goals and grind it out behind the run. Seattle wanted the ball in the air and metres on the board, one explosive play at a time. At half-time it looked like Atlanta's patience was working, locked at 6-6. By full-time it was Seattle's approach that won out, 37-9.

The tie held through the first two quarters, both sides kicking rather than finishing drives, each on the board for three points in the first term and level again by the main break. Then Seattle flicked a switch. Rashid Shaheed opened the third quarter with 15 minutes still on the clock, Jaxon Smith-Njigba struck again with 6:23 left in the same term, and Seattle led 23-6 heading into the fourth. Cooper Kupp then Smith-Njigba for his second added two more touchdowns in the final period, and a tight 6-6 stalemate turned into a 28-point gap before the clock ran out. Atlanta never found the end zone all night, kept to field goals for their nine points.

The yardage tells the same story from a different angle. Seattle finished with 378 total yards to Atlanta's 282, 28 first downs to 18, and an offensive EPA of plus 8.8 against Atlanta's minus 22.1. That last figure is the real gap between the two sides. Atlanta moved the chains often enough to stay level early, but three turnovers against Seattle's one meant the patient approach never had the margin for error it needed, and every mistake landed at the worst possible time.

Through the air, Sam Darnold went 20 of 30 for 249 yards and three touchdowns against one interception, spreading the ball around and finding his receivers in space all afternoon. Kirk Cousins was 15 of 30 for 162 yards with two picks and nothing to show for it on the scoreboard. On the ground it was closer, Seattle running for 129 yards to Atlanta's 120, and Bijan Robinson led all rushers with 86 yards on 20 carries. It was a strong shift from Robinson, but it barely registered against a scoreboard that had already gotten away from Atlanta by the fourth quarter.

Smith-Njigba was the difference-maker, seven catches for 92 yards and two touchdowns, the clear top target on either side. Kupp and Shaheed chipped in a touchdown apiece to spread the damage further, and between the three of them Atlanta's defence had no answer once Seattle found its rhythm after half-time.

Alphr's model had this one right in the broad strokes. It gave Seattle a 77% chance of winning off ratings of 1642 to Atlanta's 1408, and Seattle's form coming in, four wins from their last five against Atlanta's one, backed that up. Where the model missed was the margin: it had Seattle by 5.5 points, nowhere near the 28-point gap that actually opened up. The total score prediction fared much better, tipped at 48 points against an actual combined 46, within two points of the mark. Seattle's special teams rating of 87 against Atlanta's 64 going in looks a lot more relevant with hindsight, given how one-sided the second half became.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 37 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Atlanta Falcons | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 282 | Total Yards | **378** |
| 162 | Passing Yards | **249** |
| 120 | Rushing Yards | **129** |
| 18 | First Downs | **28** |
| 3 | Turnovers | **1** |
| **2** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| -22.1 | Offensive EPA | **8.8** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Seattle Seahawks to win at 77% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.5 but the actual margin was 28 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 46, within 2 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 44.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Kemp officiated this match (132 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Alex Kemp's career average of 46. Seattle Seahawks's victory aligns with Alex Kemp's historical trend, Seattle Seahawks have a 63% win rate under this referee. Despite Alex Kemp's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side Seattle Seahawks prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.28 (edge -1.2%) — model probability 76.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Atlanta Falcons +7 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 6 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Seattle Seahawks here: 77% to see off Atlanta Falcons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Seattle Seahawks sit 235 ELO points clear, 1642 to 1408. Form leans Seattle Seahawks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Atlanta Falcons.

Seattle Seahawks own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Recent Form. The margin model has Seattle Seahawks by 5.5, with the two sides combining for about 48. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Seattle Seahawks to win, not to win big.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Seattle Seahawks taking the most recent 37-9 in 2025 Week 14.

Atlanta Falcons went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 4-4 at home, averaging 20.8 points for and 23.6 against.

Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 away, averaging 28.4 points for and 17.2 against.

Kirk Cousins starts under centre for Atlanta Falcons, Sam Darnold for Seattle Seahawks, with Raheem Morris and Mike Macdonald calling the shots.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, Atlanta Falcons $3.80 and Seattle Seahawks $1.28, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -7 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Atlanta Falcons 6 · Seattle Seahawks 6 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 37-9 (2025) |
| Atlanta Falcons 2025 so far | 8-9 · 4-4 home |
| Atlanta Falcons scoring | 20.8 for · 23.6 against |
| Seattle Seahawks 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 away |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 28.4 for · 17.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Kirk Cousins · Sam Darnold |
| Head coaches | Raheem Morris · Mike Macdonald |
| Market | Atlanta Falcons $3.80 · Seattle Seahawks $1.28 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -7 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Alex Kemp |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Seattle Seahawks

**Alex Kemp** — 132 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Alex Kemp | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 2W–6L | 25% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5W–3L | 63% |

Avg total: 46.0 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Alex Kemp officiates, Seattle Seahawks have won 5 of 8 games (63%), significantly stronger than Atlanta Falcons's 2 from 8 (25%). Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Atlanta Falcons | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 24.6pts | Avg Score | 31.4pts |
| 24.4pts | Avg Conceded | 16.2pts |
| 0.2pts | Avg Margin | 15.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | W9 L · W10 L · W11 L · W12 W · W13 L | 24.6 |
| Seattle Seahawks | W9 W · W10 W · W11 L · W12 W · W13 W | 31.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W14 | Atlanta Falcons | 9 – 37 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2024 | W7 | Atlanta Falcons | 14 – 34 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2022 | W3 | Seattle Seahawks | 23 – 27 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2020 | W1 | Atlanta Falcons | 25 – 38 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2019 | W8 | Atlanta Falcons | 20 – 27 | Seattle Seahawks |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Atlanta Falcons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Tyler Allgeier | RB | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·2·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 11/30g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bijan Robinson | RB | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 1/1g | 17/22g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.87 AI 46% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | David Sills | WR | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Darnell Mooney | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 4/13g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Pitts | TE | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/35g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Deven Thompkins | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Drummond | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Feleipe Franks | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jamal Agnew | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Kirk Cousins | QB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Zach Charbonnet | RB | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·2·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 38% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 7 in 12g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.07 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' 52' |
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/2g | 28% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Cody White | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 0/1g | 26% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Elijah Arroyo | TE | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Drew Lock | QB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Robbie Ouzts | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Velus Jones Jr. | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Seattle Seahawks** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 51% · **scored Q3, Q4**
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ Zach Charbonnet — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ AJ Barner — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- Rest of the Seahawks: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: R.Shaheed, C.Kupp

**Atlanta Falcons** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Bijan Robinson 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 46% · no TD
- ⚡ Tyler Allgeier 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- Rest of the Falcons: 7 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Atlanta Falcons 1408 · Seattle Seahawks 1642 · ELO difference: 234 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Atlanta Falcons | Seattle Seahawks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 45 | 45 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 44 | 55 | Seattle Seahawks +11 |
| Backfield | 71 | 60 | Atlanta Falcons +11 |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 62 | Even |
| Secondary | 65 | 61 | Even |
| Special Teams | 64 | 87 | Seattle Seahawks +23 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Atlanta Falcons |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 77%** — Seattle Seahawks predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-07 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)