# Arizona Cardinals v Los Angeles Rams — NFL Week 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Arizona Cardinals 17 – 45 Los Angeles Rams

_Los Angeles Rams bulldoze Arizona Cardinals._

Half time: 10 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Arizona Cardinals 11% / Los Angeles Rams 89% · State Farm Stadium · Mon, 08 Dec, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Arizona Cardinals: Michael Wilson (3' Tipped ⚡), Michael Wilson (49' Tipped ⚡) · Los Angeles Rams: Blake Corum (14'), Kyren Williams (28' Tipped ⚡), Puka Nacua (30' Tipped ⚡), Colby Parkinson (35'), Puka Nacua (45' Tipped ⚡), Blake Corum (47')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 89% | Won |
| Arizona Cardinals | 11% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.2 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 14, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Dec 2025, 08:25 am_

Arizona Cardinals 17–45 Los Angeles Rams in NFL Week 14 at State Farm Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Los Angeles Rams built this one on the ground and never really needed the passing game to bail them out. Arizona Cardinals did the opposite: they threw it 44 times for 271 yards and still finished with less than half the total offence. Final score, 45-17 to the Rams, and the contrast in method explains the gap better than the scoreboard alone.

Arizona actually led early. Michael Wilson's first touchdown made it 6-0 with 12:10 left in the first quarter, the kind of start nobody had pencilled in given the Rams were 10.2-point favourites. It didn't last. Blake Corum scored to put LA up 9-7 before the quarter was out, and from there the Rams just kept adding. Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua both crossed before half-time, and by the break it was 24-10. Nacua struck again in the third, Colby Parkinson too, and Corum's second early in the fourth pushed it to 44-10 before Wilson's second Cardinals touchdown made the final score look marginally more respectable than the game actually was.

The rushing numbers tell you where this was decided. Los Angeles ran for 249 yards against Arizona's 51, and that split, 47 per cent of the Rams' total offence coming on the ground, is exactly what you'd expect when one side's backfield rating (63) dwarfs the other's (44). Corum alone put up 128 yards on just 12 carries with two scores. Arizona simply had no answer in the trenches, and it showed up again in the sack count: three for Los Angeles, none for Arizona's pass rush all afternoon.

Through the air the ledger looked closer, until you factor in efficiency. Jacoby Brissett went 25-of-44 for 271 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Matthew Stafford needed only 31 attempts to get to 281, completing 22 of them with three touchdowns and no picks. Nacua was the standout target on either roster, seven catches for 167 yards and two scores. Arizona's lone turnover, against none for the Rams, was a small margin on paper but it mattered against a side already rolling.

Offensive EPA put a number on the gap that the yardage and the scoreline both implied: Los Angeles finished plus 28.1 to Arizona's minus 3.8, a swing of nearly 32 points of expected value across the game. That's not a team that got lucky with field position or a couple of long balls. That's a side that was simply more efficient snap for snap, backed by better ratings across the board: quarterback, receiving corps, backfield, secondary and special teams all favoured the Rams coming in.

Arizona arrived off a WLLLL run and it showed. Averaging 29.8 points conceded over their last five games, they leaked 45 to a Rams outfit that had won four of its previous five and was averaging 31.8 points scored. The form lines matched the eventual result almost exactly, and nothing in this game bucked that trend.

Alphr's model had Los Angeles at 89 per cent to win, and that call held up without much fuss. The margin was the miss, tipped at 10.2 and landing at 28. Sometimes the winner's obvious and the size of it still finds a way to surprise you. Arizona's first-quarter lead was the only moment the contest ever looked in doubt.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 7 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 45 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Arizona Cardinals | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 322 | Total Yards | **530** |
| 271 | Passing Yards | **281** |
| 51 | Rushing Yards | **249** |
| 32 | First Downs | **41** |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| -3.8 | Offensive EPA | **28.1** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Los Angeles Rams to win at 89% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.2 but the actual margin was 28 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Ron Torbert officiated this match (150 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 16 points above Ron Torbert's career average of 46. Los Angeles Rams's victory aligns with Ron Torbert's historical trend, Los Angeles Rams have a 75% win rate under this referee. Despite Ron Torbert's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Los Angeles Rams prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.20 (edge +5.9%) — model probability 89.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Rams -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 10 · Predicted total: 53

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Los Angeles Rams here: 89% to see off Arizona Cardinals. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Rams sit 244 ELO points clear, 1649 to 1405. Form leans Los Angeles Rams' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Arizona Cardinals.

Los Angeles Rams own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Los Angeles Rams by 10.2, with the two sides combining for about 53. Los Angeles Rams to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Los Angeles Rams have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Los Angeles Rams took the most recent meeting 37-20 in 2025 Week 18.

Arizona Cardinals went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 at home, averaging 20.9 points for and 28.7 against.

Los Angeles Rams went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 30.5 points for and 20.4 against.

Jacoby Brissett starts under centre for Arizona Cardinals, Matthew Stafford for Los Angeles Rams, with Jonathan Gannon and Sean McVay calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Rams favourites, Arizona Cardinals $4.80 and Los Angeles Rams $1.20, with the spread at Los Angeles Rams -9.5 and the total at 49.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Arizona Cardinals 3 · Los Angeles Rams 9 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Rams 37-20 (2025) |
| Arizona Cardinals 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 home |
| Arizona Cardinals scoring | 20.9 for · 28.7 against |
| Los Angeles Rams 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-4 away |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 30.5 for · 20.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jacoby Brissett · Matthew Stafford |
| Head coaches | Jonathan Gannon · Sean McVay |
| Market | Arizona Cardinals $4.80 · Los Angeles Rams $1.20 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -9.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Ron Torbert |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Los Angeles Rams

**Ron Torbert** — 150 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under Ron Torbert | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 5W–4L | 56% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 9W–3L | 75% |

Avg total: 46.1 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

When Ron Torbert officiates, Los Angeles Rams have won 9 of 12 games (75%), significantly stronger than Arizona Cardinals's 5 from 9 (56%). Home teams win 56% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Arizona Cardinals | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 22.4pts | Avg Score | 31.8pts |
| 29.8pts | Avg Conceded | 18.6pts |
| -7.4pts | Avg Margin | 13.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | W9 W · W10 L · W11 L · W12 L · W13 L | 22.4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | W9 W · W10 W · W11 W · W12 W · W13 L | 31.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Rams lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Los Angeles Rams | 37 – 20 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2025 | W14 | Arizona Cardinals | 17 – 45 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2024 | W17 | Los Angeles Rams | 13 – 9 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2024 | W2 | Arizona Cardinals | 41 – 10 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2023 | W12 | Arizona Cardinals | 14 – 37 | Los Angeles Rams |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at State Farm Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Arizona Cardinals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Trey McBride | TE | 8 in 12g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·2·1·1·1·0·1) | 1/5g | 7/26g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 47% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bam Knight | RB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 3/6g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jacoby Brissett | QB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Michael Carter | RB | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/9g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Michael Wilson | WR | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/21g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 29% ✓ Scored | 🏉 3' 49' |
| – | Andre Baccellia | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Higgins | TE | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/18g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Brooks | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josiah Deguara | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Pharaoh Brown | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Trent Sherfield | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/15g | 8% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 14 in 12g | 13/10g (1·1·0·0·3·2·1·1·2·2) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.69 AI 42% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.70 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 10 in 12g | 9/10g (1·0·2·1·0·1·2·1·0·1) | 5/5g | 4/3g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.85 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.03 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' 45' |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/8g | 0/5g | 22% | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | Davis Allen | TE | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/2g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | 🏉 14' 47' |
| – | Konata Mumpfield | WR | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Terrance Ferguson | TE | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Whittington | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ronnie Rivers | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Rams** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 51% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Davante Adams 🎯 — 8 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 8 pass) · model 42% · no TD
- ⚡ Puka Nacua — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 36% · **scored Q2, Q3**
- Rest of the Rams: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: B.Corum, C.Parkinson

**Arizona Cardinals** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Trey McBride 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 47% · no TD
- ⚡ Bam Knight 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Michael Wilson — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 29% · **scored Q1, Q4**
- Rest of the Cardinals: 7 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Arizona Cardinals 1405 · Los Angeles Rams 1649 · ELO difference: 244 in favour of Los Angeles Rams

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Arizona Cardinals | Los Angeles Rams | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 53 | 57 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 60 | 61 | Even |
| Backfield | 44 | 63 | Los Angeles Rams +19 |
| Pass Rush | 43 | 49 | Los Angeles Rams +6 |
| Secondary | 59 | 67 | Los Angeles Rams +8 |
| Special Teams | 48 | 58 | Los Angeles Rams +10 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 89%** — Los Angeles Rams predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 53 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-07 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)