# Washington Commanders v Denver Broncos — NFL Week 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Washington Commanders 26 – 27 Denver Broncos

_Denver Broncos pip Washington Commanders by a point._

Half time: 7 – 13 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Washington Commanders 25% / Denver Broncos 75% · FedExField · Mon, 01 Dec, 12:20 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Washington Commanders: Rodriguez (28'), Treylon Burks (35'), Terry McLaurin (58' Tipped ⚡) · Denver Broncos: Courtland Sutton (30' Tipped ⚡), RJ Harvey (41' Tipped ⚡), RJ Harvey (53' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 75% | Won |
| Washington Commanders | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.7 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Washington Commanders vs Denver Broncos Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 13, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 Dec 2025, 12:20 pm_

Washington Commanders 26–27 Denver Broncos in NFL Week 13 at FedExField. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Denver led by six for most of the second half, then let it slip in regulation before finding two more scores when it mattered. RJ Harvey's second touchdown of the day, this one in overtime, put the Broncos up 26-20. Terry McLaurin hit back for Washington to get the Commanders within a point. That's exactly where it finished. Denver Broncos 27, Washington Commanders 26.

Nobody led by more than six all afternoon, which is the real story of this one. Washington trailed 7-13 at the break after Chris Rodriguez Jr. got the Commanders on the board and Courtland Sutton answered with 28 seconds left in the half to keep Denver in front. Treylon Burks levelled it at 13-13 early in the third. Harvey's first touchdown put Denver back up by six not long after. Both sides then went scoreless the rest of regulation, taking a 20-20 deadlock into overtime, where Denver finally found the separation it couldn't hold onto.

Look at the stat sheet and it reads like a team that should have won comfortably. Washington outgained Denver 437 yards to 408, ran for 143 against Denver's 87, and picked up 44 first downs to Denver's 40. Both sides turned it over once. None of it mattered where it counted most: Denver's offensive EPA of 12.6 more than doubled Washington's 6.2, which is another way of saying Denver's plays carried more weight when the game was actually on the line.

That gap lines up with what the numbers said coming in. Denver held the edge at every position that touches the ball first: quarterback 56 to 47, pass rush 58

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | 0 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 26 |
| Denver Broncos | 3 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 27 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Washington Commanders | Stat | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| **437** | Total Yards | 408 |
| 294 | Passing Yards | **321** |
| **143** | Rushing Yards | 87 |
| **44** | First Downs | 40 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| 6.2 | Offensive EPA | **12.6** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Denver Broncos to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 6.7 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. The game's 53 points came in 19 points higher than the predicted 34. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Land Clark officiated this match (95 career games). The combined score of 53 points was 8 points above Land Clark's career average of 45. Denver Broncos's victory aligns with Land Clark's historical trend, Denver Broncos have a 71% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $1.32 (edge -0.1%) — model probability 75.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Washington Commanders +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 7 · Predicted total: 34

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Denver Broncos here: 75% to see off Washington Commanders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Denver Broncos sit 194 ELO points clear, 1642 to 1448. Form leans Denver Broncos' way: 5 from their last 5, against 0 for Washington Commanders.

Denver Broncos own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Denver Broncos by 6.7, with the two sides combining for about 34. Denver Broncos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is even: 4 wins each from the last 8 meetings, Denver Broncos taking the most recent 27-26 in 2025 Week 13.

Washington Commanders went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 2-6 at home, averaging 20.9 points for and 26.5 against.

Denver Broncos went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-2 away, averaging 23.6 points for and 18.3 against.

Jayden Daniels starts under centre for Washington Commanders, Bo Nix for Denver Broncos, with Dan Quinn and Sean Payton calling the shots.

The market has Denver Broncos favourites, Washington Commanders $3.50 and Denver Broncos $1.32, with the spread at Denver Broncos -6.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Washington Commanders 4 · Denver Broncos 4 |
| Last meeting | Denver Broncos 27-26 (2025) |
| Washington Commanders 2025 so far | 5-12 · 2-6 home |
| Washington Commanders scoring | 20.9 for · 26.5 against |
| Denver Broncos 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-2 away |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 23.6 for · 18.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jayden Daniels · Bo Nix |
| Head coaches | Dan Quinn · Sean Payton |
| Market | Washington Commanders $3.50 · Denver Broncos $1.32 |
| Spread | Denver Broncos -6.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Land Clark |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Denver Broncos

**Land Clark** — 95 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Land Clark | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | 0W–4L | 0% |
| Denver Broncos | 5W–2L | 71% |

Avg total: 45.5 pts · Home win %: 43% · Home bias: Leans away

When Land Clark officiates, Denver Broncos have won 5 of 7 games (71%), significantly stronger than Washington Commanders's 0 from 4 (0%). Away teams perform well, home sides win just 43%, below ~55% league avg. Small sample (4 games for Washington Commanders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Washington Commanders | Stat | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 15.6pts | Avg Score | 25.4pts |
| 34.0pts | Avg Conceded | 19.4pts |
| -18.4pts | Avg Margin | 6.0pts |
| 14.0d | Rest Days | 14.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | W7 L · W8 L · W9 L · W10 L · W11 L | 15.6 |
| Denver Broncos | W7 W · W8 W · W9 W · W10 W · W11 W | 25.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Denver Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W13 | Washington Commanders | 26 – 27 | Denver Broncos |
| 2023 | W2 | Denver Broncos | 33 – 35 | Washington Commanders |
| 2021 | W8 | Denver Broncos | 17 – 10 | Washington Commanders |
| 2017 | W16 | Washington Commanders | 27 – 11 | Denver Broncos |
| 2013 | W8 | Denver Broncos | 45 – 21 | Washington Commanders |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at FedExField. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Washington Commanders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 3/6g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Zach Ertz | TE | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 9/20g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/10g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 27% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Jaylin Lane | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy McNichols | RB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/13g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Mariota | QB | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Terry McLaurin | WR | 1 in 4g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 15/52g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.25 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |
| – | Colson Yankoff | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | John Bates | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/27g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Treylon Burks | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 3% | — | 🏉 35' |

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·3·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 41' 53' |
| – | Troy Franklin | WR | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 29% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Adam Trautman | TE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Pat Bryant | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Adam Prentice | RB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lil'Jordan Humphrey | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Denver Broncos** (3 picks)
- ⚡ RJ Harvey 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 3 pass) · model 31% · **scored Q3, Q5**
- ⚡ Troy Franklin 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Broncos: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

**Washington Commanders** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Deebo Samuel Sr. 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Terry McLaurin 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 34% · **scored Q5**
- ⚡ Chris Rodriguez Jr. — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 27% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Commanders: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Burks

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Washington Commanders 1448 · Denver Broncos 1642 · ELO difference: 194 in favour of Denver Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Washington Commanders | Denver Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 47 | 56 | Denver Broncos +9 |
| Receiving Corps | 48 | 48 | Even |
| Backfield | 47 | 48 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 58 | Denver Broncos +6 |
| Secondary | 51 | 58 | Denver Broncos +7 |
| Special Teams | 62 | 64 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Denver Broncos predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 34 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-01 01:20 UTC (latest tip update)