# Tennessee Titans v Jacksonville Jaguars — NFL Week 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Tennessee Titans 3 – 25 Jacksonville Jaguars

_Jacksonville Jaguars run riot over Tennessee Titans._

Half time: 3 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Tennessee Titans 25% / Jacksonville Jaguars 75% · Nissan Stadium · Mon, 01 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Tennessee Titans: none · Jacksonville Jaguars: Jakobi Meyers (14' Tipped ⚡), Brenton Strange (15'), Bhayshul Tuten (39')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 75% | Won |
| Tennessee Titans | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.6 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 13, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Tennessee Titans 3–25 Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL Week 13 at Nissan Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Jacksonville Jaguars needed 27 pass attempts to do their damage. Tennessee Titans needed 38 and still finished with less than half the yardage to show for it. That gap, effort against efficiency, is basically the whole game in one line.

Trevor Lawrence went 16-of-27 for 229 yards and both his touchdown throws found their targets with minimum fuss. Cam Ward threw it 11 more times than Lawrence and still only managed 141 yards on 24 completions. Jacksonville Jaguars picked their spots. Tennessee Titans just kept chucking the ball forward and hoping something would stick.

It didn't. Jakobi Meyers opened the scoring for Jacksonville Jaguars late in the first quarter, and by the time Brenton Strange crossed at the start of the second, it was 3-13 and the shape of the afternoon was set. Tennessee Titans went to the break down 3-18, having managed only 3 points of their own, and Bhayshul Tuten's touchdown early in the third pushed it to 3-24 before either side eased off. Nothing else changed after that. Final score 25-3, and the last quarter and a half was academic.

The stat line backs up the eye test. Jacksonville Jaguars finished with 299 total yards to Tennessee Titans' 208, and the first-down count, 29 to 13, tells you who was actually controlling the ball rather than just holding it. Jacksonville Jaguars' offensive EPA of -2.8 against Tennessee Titans' -19.2 is about as clear a picture of clock-eating, chain-moving football against desperate, low-value snaps as you'll see in a box score. Add the turnover Tennessee Titans coughed up, none the other way, and there was no margin for error left for the home side.

Tony Pollard was arguably the best thing Tennessee Titans had going, 60 yards on 10 carries, useful work in a game that offered his side almost nothing else. It just wasn't enough when the passing game stalled and the defence couldn't get off the field. Meyers finished as the game's leading receiver regardless, 6 catches for 90 yards and the opening touchdown, doing exactly what a receiving corps rated above Tennessee Titans' going in was expected to do.

None of this should surprise anyone who looked at the two sides coming in. Jacksonville Jaguars arrived with three wins in their last five, Tennessee Titans with none. The backfield rating gap, 62 to 43, and the receiving corps edge, 57 to 51, both showed up here. Alphr's model had Jacksonville Jaguars favourites at 75 percent and pegged the margin at 13.6. The actual gap was 22, wider than tipped but well within the range you'd expect once Tennessee Titans went scoreless after the opening field goal and Jacksonville Jaguars kept finding the end zone at will.

Ball control won out over raw ambition, and it wasn't especially close.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 25 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Tennessee Titans | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 208 | Total Yards | **299** |
| 141 | Passing Yards | **229** |
| 67 | Rushing Yards | **70** |
| 13 | First Downs | **29** |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 3 | Sacks Made | 3 |
| -19.2 | Offensive EPA | **-2.8** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Jacksonville Jaguars to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 13.6 was reasonable against the actual 22-point result. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Rogers officiated this match (92 career games). The combined score of 28 points was 18 points below Brad Rogers's career average of 46. Jacksonville Jaguars's victory aligns with Brad Rogers's historical trend, Jacksonville Jaguars have a 60% win rate under this referee. Despite Brad Rogers's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side Jacksonville Jaguars prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $1.37 (edge +2.3%) — model probability 75.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Jacksonville Jaguars -6 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Jacksonville Jaguars here: 75% to see off Tennessee Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Jacksonville Jaguars sit 236 ELO points clear, 1493 to 1257. Form leans Jacksonville Jaguars' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Tennessee Titans.

Jacksonville Jaguars own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Jacksonville Jaguars by 13.6, with the two sides combining for about 42. Jacksonville Jaguars to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Jacksonville Jaguars have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Jacksonville Jaguars took the most recent meeting 41-7 in 2025 Week 18.

Tennessee Titans went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-8 at home, averaging 16.7 points for and 28.1 against.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 13-4 in 2025 so far, 6-2 away, averaging 27.9 points for and 19.8 against.

Cam Ward starts under centre for Tennessee Titans, Trevor Lawrence for Jacksonville Jaguars, with Brian Callahan and Liam Coen calling the shots.

The market has Jacksonville Jaguars favourites, Tennessee Titans $3.20 and Jacksonville Jaguars $1.37, with the spread at Jacksonville Jaguars -6 and the total at 42.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Tennessee Titans 5 · Jacksonville Jaguars 7 |
| Last meeting | Jacksonville Jaguars 41-7 (2025) |
| Tennessee Titans 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-8 home |
| Tennessee Titans scoring | 16.7 for · 28.1 against |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 so far | 13-4 · 6-2 away |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 27.9 for · 19.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Cam Ward · Trevor Lawrence |
| Head coaches | Brian Callahan · Liam Coen |
| Market | Tennessee Titans $3.20 · Jacksonville Jaguars $1.37 |
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars -6 · total 42.5 |
| Referee | Brad Rogers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Jacksonville Jaguars

**Brad Rogers** — 92 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Brad Rogers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | 3W–5L | 38% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3W–2L | 60% |

Avg total: 46.0 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Rogers officiates, Jacksonville Jaguars have won 3 of 5 games (60%), significantly stronger than Tennessee Titans's 3 from 8 (38%). Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (5 games for Jacksonville Jaguars).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Tennessee Titans | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 16.8pts | Avg Score | 25.6pts |
| 28.4pts | Avg Conceded | 26.0pts |
| -11.6pts | Avg Margin | -0.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | W7 L · W8 L · W9 L · W11 L · W12 L | 16.8 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W7 L · W9 W · W10 L · W11 W · W12 W | 25.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Jacksonville Jaguars lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 41 – 7 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2025 | W13 | Tennessee Titans | 3 – 25 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2024 | W17 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 20 – 13 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2024 | W14 | Tennessee Titans | 6 – 10 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2023 | W18 | Tennessee Titans | 28 – 20 | Jacksonville Jaguars |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Nissan Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Tennessee Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chimere Dike | WR | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 4/6g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Elic Ayomanor | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tony Pollard | RB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/14g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cam Ward | QB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | David Martin-Robinson | TE | 1 in 5g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Gunnar Helm | TE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tyjae Spears | RB | 1 in 7g | 5/10g (2·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 4/18g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 23% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Van Jefferson | WR | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/7g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Chig Okonkwo | TE | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/28g | 6% | — | — |
| – | James Proche | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Julius Chestnut | RB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Restrepo | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Travis Etienne | RB | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.12 AI 42% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.70 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 1/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 39' |
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tim Patrick | WR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.30 AI 24% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' |
| – | Austin Trammell | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brenton Strange | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 8% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Mullens | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Quintin Morris | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Travis Etienne 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 42% · no TD
- ⚡ Parker Washington 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Brian Thomas Jr. — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Jakobi Meyers — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 24% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Jaguars: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: B.Strange, B.Tuten

**Tennessee Titans** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Tony Pollard 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Tyjae Spears 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Titans: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Tennessee Titans 1257 · Jacksonville Jaguars 1493 · ELO difference: 236 in favour of Jacksonville Jaguars

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Tennessee Titans | Jacksonville Jaguars | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 42 | 41 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 51 | 57 | Jacksonville Jaguars +6 |
| Backfield | 43 | 62 | Jacksonville Jaguars +19 |
| Pass Rush | 62 | 51 | Tennessee Titans +11 |
| Secondary | 52 | 60 | Jacksonville Jaguars +8 |
| Special Teams | 55 | 62 | Jacksonville Jaguars +7 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Tennessee Titans |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Jacksonville Jaguars predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-30 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)