# Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Arizona Cardinals — NFL Week 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – 17 Arizona Cardinals

_Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold off a fast-finishing Arizona Cardinals._

Half time: 10 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 74% / Arizona Cardinals 26% · Raymond James Stadium · Mon, 01 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tristan Wirfs (29'), Bucky Irving (41' Tipped ⚡) · Arizona Cardinals: Knight (45'), Trey McBride (55' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 74% | Won |
| Arizona Cardinals | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.4 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Arizona Cardinals Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 13, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–17 Arizona Cardinals in NFL Week 13 at Raymond James Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Arizona Cardinals 20-17 at Raymond James Stadium. Look at the yardage sheet, though, and that scoreline starts to look almost generous to the home side. Arizona put up 396 total yards to Tampa Bay's 289, out-gained them through the air 301 to 194, and racked up 38 first downs against 21. By most measures that's a beatdown. It just isn't the one that ended up on the board.

The reason is simple: turnovers. Arizona coughed it up twice, Tampa Bay didn't cough it up at all. Jacoby Brissett threw for 301 yards and 2 touchdowns but also gave up an interception, and against a team that couldn't otherwise match Arizona's output, that one takeaway mattered more than a hundred extra passing yards ever could.

The game had a shape to it. Nil-all after the first quarter, then Tampa Bay opened it up with a T.Wirfs touchdown to lead 10-3 at the break. Bucky Irving stretched that out to 16-3 early in the third, and for a moment it looked like it might get away from Arizona altogether. It didn't. Bam Knight (listed as Z.Knight on the scoring log) hit back before the third quarter was out to make it 17-9, and Trey McBride's touchdown with just over five minutes left in the fourth pulled Arizona to within three. That's exactly where it stayed. One score, right to the final whistle.

McBride was the standout on the day regardless of result: 8 catches for 82 yards and the touchdown, comfortably the game's leading target. Bam Knight backed that up on the ground, 62 yards on 11 carries to lead all rushers, with the rushing yardage overall tied at 95 apiece. Arizona's receiving corps was rated well above Tampa Bay's coming in, 75 to 48, and it showed up in exactly that kind of production. Baker Mayfield, by contrast, was tidier but far less explosive for Tampa Bay: 18 of 28 for 194 and a single touchdown, the one that belonged to Irving.

None of this should have been a shock on paper. Alphr's model had Tampa Bay winning at 74 percent, with a margin of just 0.4 points, and combined scoring at 45. The final gap was 3, the total was 37. Close enough on the margin to call it a sharp read, even if the underlying game played out with Arizona doing most of the heavy lifting statistically and still finding a way to lose it.

Offensive EPA told the same story as the yardage column: Arizona at -1.2, Tampa Bay at -0.7, both sides scuffling in their own way, but Tampa Bay scuffling less badly when it counted. Both teams came in with the same shaky recent form, a single win in their last five and negative average margins within a fraction of each other. On this occasion, the team that protected the ball won the day, and the team that moved it further didn't.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 20 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| 289 | Total Yards | **396** |
| 194 | Passing Yards | **301** |
| 95 | Rushing Yards | 95 |
| 21 | First Downs | **38** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **-0.7** | Offensive EPA | -1.2 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win at 74% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 0.4 vs the actual margin of 3 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Bill Vinovich officiated this match (274 career games). The combined score of 37 points was 8 points below Bill Vinovich's career average of 45. Tampa Bay Buccaneers's victory aligns with Bill Vinovich's historical trend, Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a 56% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win @ $1.51 (edge +7.9%) — model probability 74.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Arizona Cardinals +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 0 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Tampa Bay Buccaneers here: 74% to see off Arizona Cardinals. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit 108 ELO points clear, 1521 to 1412.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Secondary. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win, not to win big.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won 5 of the last 9 between these two, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers took the most recent meeting 20-17 in 2025 Week 13.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 4-4 at home, averaging 22.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Arizona Cardinals went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 away, averaging 20.9 points for and 28.7 against.

Baker Mayfield starts under centre for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacoby Brissett for Arizona Cardinals, with Todd Bowles and Jonathan Gannon calling the shots.

The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers favourites, Tampa Bay Buccaneers $1.51 and Arizona Cardinals $2.64, with the spread at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 9) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5 · Arizona Cardinals 4 |
| Last meeting | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-17 (2025) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025 so far | 8-9 · 4-4 home |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers scoring | 22.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Arizona Cardinals 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 away |
| Arizona Cardinals scoring | 20.9 for · 28.7 against |
| Quarterbacks | Baker Mayfield · Jacoby Brissett |
| Head coaches | Todd Bowles · Jonathan Gannon |
| Market | Tampa Bay Buccaneers $1.51 · Arizona Cardinals $2.64 |
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Bill Vinovich |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Tampa Bay Buccaneers

**Bill Vinovich** — 274 career games since 2004.

| Team | Record under Bill Vinovich | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9W–7L | 56% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 6W–7L | 46% |

Avg total: 44.9 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold a 10-point edge: 9W–7L (56%) vs Arizona Cardinals's 6W–7L (46%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 18.8pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 26.6pts | Avg Conceded | 31.2pts |
| -7.8pts | Avg Margin | -7.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W7 L · W8 W · W10 L · W11 L · W12 L | 18.8 |
| Arizona Cardinals | W7 L · W9 W · W10 L · W11 L · W12 L | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 20 – 17 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2022 | W16 | Arizona Cardinals | 16 – 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2019 | W10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 30 – 27 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2017 | W6 | Arizona Cardinals | 38 – 33 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2016 | W2 | Arizona Cardinals | 40 – 7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Raymond James Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Emeka Egbuka | WR | 6 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 38% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Sean Tucker | RB | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·3·0) | 0/0g | 1/15g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tez Johnson | WR | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/4g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Rachaad White | RB | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 13/31g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.30 AI 32% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Bucky Irving | RB | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 6/12g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.75 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 41' |
| – | Baker Mayfield | QB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/24g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Kameron Johnson | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Miller | WR | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Sterling Shepard | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/12g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Cade Otton | TE | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/28g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 21/56g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 33% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Devin Culp | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Payne Durham | TE | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/12g | 13% | — | — |

**Arizona Cardinals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Trey McBride | TE | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 55' |
| – | Bam Knight | RB | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Greg Dortch | WR | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jacoby Brissett | QB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Michael Carter | RB | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Michael Wilson | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Andre Baccellia | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Higgins | TE | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Weaver | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Arizona Cardinals** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Trey McBride 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 48% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Bam Knight 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 33% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Cardinals: 7 TDs across the team's last 5

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Bucky Irving 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 49% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Emeka Egbuka — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Chris Godwin Jr. — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Rachaad White — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 32% · no TD
- Rest of the Buccaneers: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Wirfs

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1521 · Arizona Cardinals 1412 · ELO difference: 108 in favour of Tampa Bay Buccaneers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Arizona Cardinals | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 29 | 50 | Arizona Cardinals +21 |
| Receiving Corps | 48 | 75 | Arizona Cardinals +27 |
| Backfield | 56 | 43 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +13 |
| Pass Rush | 55 | 48 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 |
| Secondary | 70 | 64 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 |
| Special Teams | 58 | 57 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r13-tampa-bay-buccaneers-v-arizona-cardinals
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-11-30 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)