# Seattle Seahawks v Minnesota Vikings — NFL Week 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Seattle Seahawks 26 – 0 Minnesota Vikings

_Seattle Seahawks put Minnesota Vikings to the sword._

Half time: 13 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Seattle Seahawks 94% / Minnesota Vikings 6% · Lumen Field · Mon, 01 Dec, 08:05 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Seattle Seahawks: Ernest Jones (27'), Zach Charbonnet (51' Tipped ⚡) · Minnesota Vikings: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 94% | Won |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 18.8 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 13, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 Dec 2025, 08:05 am_

Seattle Seahawks 26–0 Minnesota Vikings in NFL Week 13 at Lumen Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time at Lumen Field had Seattle up 13-0, and by the time the clock hit zero the only thing that had changed was the margin. Seattle Seahawks closed it out 26-0 over the Minnesota Vikings, and the second half didn't so much rewrite the story as confirm it in bigger letters.

The scoring pattern tells you how comprehensively one-sided this was. E. Jones got Seattle on the board with 3:14 left in the second quarter to make it 9-0, and Seattle led 13-0 at the break. Minnesota never found an answer. Seattle stretched it to 19-0 through the third, then Zach Charbonnet's touchdown with 9:17 to go in the fourth pushed it to 25-0 and put the result beyond doubt. Minnesota Vikings finished the day without a single trip to the end zone.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard already said. Seattle outgained Minnesota 253 yards to 192 and doubled them on the ground, 125 rushing yards to 66. First downs went 24-15 Seattle's way. But the number that really decided this one was turnovers: Minnesota coughed it up five times against Seattle's one, and on a day when neither team could find much through the air, that gap in ball security was the whole ballgame. Seattle's offensive EPA of -11 sounds unremarkable until you see Minnesota's -32.4 next to it, a gap of 21.4 expected points in Seattle's favour.

Through the air the passing numbers were oddly even. Sam Darnold went 14-of-26 for 128 yards for Seattle, while Minnesota's Max Brosmer actually out-threw him on volume, 19-of-30 for 126 yards, but four of those attempts ended up in Seattle's hands as interceptions. That's the story in a nutshell: Minnesota moved the ball fine at times, they just couldn't hang onto it.

On the ground, Kenneth Walker III led all rushers with 56 yards on 13 carries, giving Seattle the physical edge to go with the turnover margin. Minnesota's T.J. Hockenson was the game's leading target regardless, hauling in 6 catches for 59 yards, proof there was some individual quality out there even as the team result got away from them.

Minnesota came in off a rough run, one win from their last five with an average margin of minus 10.2, and this fit the pattern rather than breaking it. Seattle, by contrast, arrived with four wins from five and an average margin of plus 11.6, and their special teams rating of 81 against Minnesota's 58 was the widest positional gap on the sheet, worth remembering on a day decided by field position and mistakes as much as anything else.

Alphr's model had Seattle at 94% to win, expecting an 18.8-point margin off ratings of 1628 to 1479. The lopsided part of that read landed exactly right. The total was the miss: the model expected 44 combined points, and this game produced 26, a reminder that a blowout doesn't always mean a shootout

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 0 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 26 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| **253** | Total Yards | 192 |
| **128** | Passing Yards | 126 |
| **125** | Rushing Yards | 66 |
| **24** | First Downs | 15 |
| **1** | Turnovers | 5 |
| 4 | Sacks Made | 4 |
| **-11** | Offensive EPA | -32.4 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Seattle Seahawks to win at 94% probability. The predicted margin of 18.8 was reasonable against the actual 26-point result. The game's 26 points came in 18 points lower than the predicted 44. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Clete Blakeman officiated this match (258 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 20 points below Clete Blakeman's career average of 46. Seattle Seahawks bucked the trend, Minnesota Vikings historically win 65% of games under Clete Blakeman, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.11 (edge +4.1%) — model probability 94.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Minnesota Vikings +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 19 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Seattle Seahawks here: 94% to see off Minnesota Vikings. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Seattle Seahawks sit 148 ELO points clear, 1628 to 1479. Form leans Seattle Seahawks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Minnesota Vikings.

Seattle Seahawks own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Seattle Seahawks by 18.8, with the two sides combining for about 44. Seattle Seahawks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Seattle Seahawks have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Seattle Seahawks took the most recent meeting 26-0 in 2025 Week 13.

Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-2 at home, averaging 28.4 points for and 17.2 against.

Minnesota Vikings went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 20.2 points for and 19.6 against.

Sam Darnold starts under centre for Seattle Seahawks, J.J. McCarthy for Minnesota Vikings, with Mike Macdonald and Kevin O'Connell calling the shots.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, Seattle Seahawks $1.11 and Minnesota Vikings $7.00, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -12.5 and the total at 42.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Seattle Seahawks 8 · Minnesota Vikings 4 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 26-0 (2025) |
| Seattle Seahawks 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-2 home |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 28.4 for · 17.2 against |
| Minnesota Vikings 2025 so far | 9-8 · 5-4 away |
| Minnesota Vikings scoring | 20.2 for · 19.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Sam Darnold · J.J. McCarthy |
| Head coaches | Mike Macdonald · Kevin O'Connell |
| Market | Seattle Seahawks $1.11 · Minnesota Vikings $7.00 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -12.5 · total 42.5 |
| Referee | Clete Blakeman |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Minnesota Vikings

**Clete Blakeman** — 258 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Clete Blakeman | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 5W–12L | 29% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 11W–6L | 65% |

Avg total: 46.4 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Clete Blakeman officiates, Minnesota Vikings have won 11 of 17 games (65%), significantly stronger than Seattle Seahawks's 5 from 17 (29%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 31.6pts | Avg Score | 15.8pts |
| 20.0pts | Avg Conceded | 26.0pts |
| 11.6pts | Avg Margin | -10.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | W7 W · W9 W · W10 W · W11 L · W12 W | 31.6 |
| Minnesota Vikings | W8 L · W9 W · W10 L · W11 L · W12 L | 15.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W13 | Seattle Seahawks | 26 – 0 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2024 | W16 | Seattle Seahawks | 24 – 27 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2021 | W3 | Minnesota Vikings | 30 – 17 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2020 | W5 | Seattle Seahawks | 27 – 26 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2019 | W13 | Seattle Seahawks | 37 – 30 | Minnesota Vikings |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lumen Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·2) | 1/1g | 13/22g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.05 AI 56% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.90 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zach Charbonnet | RB | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 10/20g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.10 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/13g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 13/26g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 40% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Cody White | WR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/9g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Arroyo | TE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Myles Gaskin | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Nick Kallerup | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |

**Minnesota Vikings** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jordan Mason | RB | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Addison | WR | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Aaron Jones | RB | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/4g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 26% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jalen Nailor | WR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Justin Jefferson | WR | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 2/1g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | T.J. Hockenson | TE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Zavier Scott | RB | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Max Brosmer | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Myles Price | WR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tai Felton | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Minnesota Vikings** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Justin Jefferson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Aaron Jones 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Vikings: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

**Seattle Seahawks** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 56% · no TD
- ⚡ Zach Charbonnet 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 40% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 40% · no TD
- ⚡ Rashid Shaheed — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 27% · no TD
- Rest of the Seahawks: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: E.Jones

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Seattle Seahawks 1628 · Minnesota Vikings 1479 · ELO difference: 148 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Seattle Seahawks | Minnesota Vikings | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 47 | 45 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 54 | 45 | Seattle Seahawks +9 |
| Backfield | 57 | 47 | Seattle Seahawks +10 |
| Pass Rush | 61 | 62 | Even |
| Secondary | 58 | 49 | Seattle Seahawks +9 |
| Special Teams | 81 | 58 | Seattle Seahawks +23 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 94%** — Seattle Seahawks predicted to win by 19 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-30 21:05 UTC (latest tip update)