# Pittsburgh Steelers v Buffalo Bills — NFL Week 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – 26 Buffalo Bills

_Buffalo Bills surge back to charge down Pittsburgh Steelers._

Half time: 7 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Pittsburgh Steelers 39% / Buffalo Bills 61% · Acrisure Stadium · Mon, 01 Dec, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Pittsburgh Steelers: Jaylen Warren (22' Tipped ⚡) · Buffalo Bills: Christian Benford (31'), Keon Coleman (37' Tipped ⚡), Josh Allen (46' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 61% | Won |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.4 predicted → 19 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 13, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 Dec 2025, 08:25 am_

Pittsburgh Steelers 7–26 Buffalo Bills in NFL Week 13 at Acrisure Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seven to three. That was Pittsburgh at the break, and for a moment it looked like the home side might have snuck one past the better team on paper. Jaylen Warren's touchdown with 8:12 left in the second quarter had the Steelers up 6-0, and even after Buffalo added a field goal before half-time, Pittsburgh carried the 7-3 lead into the sheds. Then the second half happened, and it wasn't close to a contest.

Buffalo scored 23 unanswered points after the break. C.Benford got the Bills on the board early in the third to make it 7-9, Keon Coleman followed with 8:53 left in the quarter to push it to 16-7, and Josh Allen capped it himself with 14:16 to go in the fourth to make it 22-7. Buffalo closed it out 26-7. Pittsburgh's only touchdown, Warren's, was also its last moment of relevance in the contest.

The gap on the stat sheet explains why. Buffalo finished with 372 total yards to Pittsburgh's 175, and 249 of those Bills yards came on the ground. That's the backfield edge the ratings flagged going in, 64 to 55 in Buffalo's favour, showing up exactly where you'd expect. Pittsburgh's rushing game, by contrast, managed just 58 yards all night.

Through the air it was closer to even. Josh Allen went 15-of-23 for 123 yards with a touchdown and an interception, while Aaron Rodgers went 10-of-21 for 117 for Pittsburgh. Neither quarterback set the world on fire, but Allen didn't need to with his running game doing the heavy lifting underneath him. First downs told the same story as the yardage: 34 for Buffalo against 13 for Pittsburgh. Buffalo's offensive EPA of 7.4 against Pittsburgh's minus-18.2 is about as lopsided an efficiency gap as you'll see in a box score.

Turnovers were even at two apiece, so it wasn't sloppiness that separated these two sides. It was Buffalo simply doing more with its opportunities once the ball was live, and Pittsburgh having no real answer once the Bills found their footing on the ground in the third quarter.

Pittsburgh came in off a 2-3 run over its last five games with an average margin of just 0.2 points, a side that had been living on the edge of every result. Buffalo arrived at 3-2 with a healthier average margin of 5.8. The quarterback rating gap, 68 to 47, was the widest of any position group before kickoff, and on this night it lined up with what actually unfolded, even if Rodgers' own numbers weren't the problem.

Alphr's model had backed Buffalo at 61 percent to win, and got the result right. Where it fell short was the margin: the pre-match read had Buffalo by 4.4 points, nowhere near the final 19-point gap. Pittsburgh hanging in at half-time was the illusion of the night. The scoreboard read close for thirty minutes. The underlying numbers, from rushing yards to EPA to first downs, never did.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Pittsburgh Steelers | Stat | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 175 | Total Yards | **372** |
| 117 | Passing Yards | **123** |
| 58 | Rushing Yards | **249** |
| 13 | First Downs | **34** |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **1** |
| -18.2 | Offensive EPA | **7.4** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Buffalo Bills to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.4 but the actual margin was 19 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Kemp officiated this match (132 career games). The combined score of 33 points was 13 points below Alex Kemp's career average of 46. Buffalo Bills's victory aligns with Alex Kemp's historical trend, Buffalo Bills have a 67% win rate under this referee. Despite Alex Kemp's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side Buffalo Bills prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Buffalo Bills to win @ $1.60 (edge -1.8%) — model probability 60.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Buffalo Bills -3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Buffalo Bills by 4 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Buffalo Bills are the call at 61%, but Pittsburgh Steelers stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Buffalo Bills sit 95 ELO points clear, 1611 to 1515. Form leans Buffalo Bills' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Pittsburgh Steelers.

Buffalo Bills own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Buffalo Bills by 4.4, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Buffalo Bills, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Pittsburgh Steelers have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Buffalo Bills took the most recent meeting 26-7 in 2025 Week 13.

Pittsburgh Steelers went 10-7 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 23.4 points for and 22.8 against.

Buffalo Bills went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 28.3 points for and 21.5 against.

Aaron Rodgers starts under centre for Pittsburgh Steelers, Josh Allen for Buffalo Bills, with Mike Tomlin and Sean McDermott calling the shots.

Buffalo Bills come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Buffalo Bills favourites, Pittsburgh Steelers $2.40 and Buffalo Bills $1.60, with the spread at Buffalo Bills -3 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Pittsburgh Steelers 7 · Buffalo Bills 5 |
| Last meeting | Buffalo Bills 26-7 (2025) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 so far | 10-7 · 6-3 home |
| Pittsburgh Steelers scoring | 23.4 for · 22.8 against |
| Buffalo Bills 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-3 away |
| Buffalo Bills scoring | 28.3 for · 21.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Aaron Rodgers · Josh Allen |
| Head coaches | Mike Tomlin · Sean McDermott |
| Rest | Pittsburgh Steelers 7d · Buffalo Bills 10d |
| Market | Pittsburgh Steelers $2.40 · Buffalo Bills $1.60 |
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -3 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Alex Kemp |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Buffalo Bills

**Alex Kemp** — 132 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Alex Kemp | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2W–2L | 50% |
| Buffalo Bills | 6W–3L | 67% |

Avg total: 46.1 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Alex Kemp officiates, Buffalo Bills have won 6 of 9 games (67%), significantly stronger than Pittsburgh Steelers's 2 from 4 (50%). Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (4 games for Pittsburgh Steelers).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Pittsburgh Steelers | Stat | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 24.8pts | Avg Score | 28.8pts |
| 24.6pts | Avg Conceded | 23.0pts |
| 0.2pts | Avg Margin | 5.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | W8 L · W9 W · W10 L · W11 W · W12 L | 24.8 |
| Buffalo Bills | W8 W · W9 W · W10 L · W11 W · W12 L | 28.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Buffalo Bills lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W13 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 – 26 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2023 | WC | Buffalo Bills | 31 – 17 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2022 | W5 | Buffalo Bills | 38 – 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2021 | W1 | Buffalo Bills | 16 – 23 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2020 | W14 | Buffalo Bills | 26 – 15 | Pittsburgh Steelers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Acrisure Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | DK Metcalf | WR | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 4/6g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kenny Gainwell | RB | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 4/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jaylen Warren | RB | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 3/29g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 22' |
| – | Calvin Austin III | WR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 4/22g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jonnu Smith | TE | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/7g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Roman Wilson | WR | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Ben Skowronek | WR | 1 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Darnell Washington | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/16g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Aaron Rodgers | QB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Kaleb Johnson | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ke'Shawn Williams | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mason Rudolph | QB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 5% | — | — |

**Buffalo Bills** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Allen | QB | 10 in 11g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·2·0·3·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' |
| – | James Cook | RB | 9 in 11g | 8/10g (2·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.08 AI 45% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Keon Coleman | WR | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.00 AI 20% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' |
| – | Khalil Shakir | WR | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jackson Hawes | TE | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Ray Davis | RB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Ty Johnson | RB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Dawson Knox | TE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Brandin Cooks | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Gabe Davis | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/3g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Reggie Gilliam | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Buffalo Bills** (4 picks)
- ⚡ James Cook 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 45% · no TD
- ⚡ Josh Allen 🎯 — 7 TDs in last 5 (7 rush · 0 pass) · model 36% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Khalil Shakir — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- ⚡ Keon Coleman — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 20% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Bills: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Benford

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Jaylen Warren 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 40% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ DK Metcalf 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- Rest of the Steelers: 9 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Pittsburgh Steelers 1515 · Buffalo Bills 1611 · ELO difference: 95 in favour of Buffalo Bills

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Pittsburgh Steelers | Buffalo Bills | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 47 | 68 | Buffalo Bills +21 |
| Receiving Corps | 47 | 47 | Even |
| Backfield | 55 | 64 | Buffalo Bills +9 |
| Pass Rush | 55 | 51 | Even |
| Secondary | 57 | 54 | Even |
| Special Teams | 68 | 55 | Pittsburgh Steelers +13 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Buffalo Bills |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Buffalo Bills predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-30 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)