# Philadelphia Eagles v Chicago Bears — NFL Week 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Philadelphia Eagles 15 – 24 Chicago Bears

_Chicago Bears bear down on Philadelphia Eagles._

Half time: 3 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Philadelphia Eagles 89% / Chicago Bears 11% · Lincoln Financial Field · Sat, 29 Nov, 07:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Philadelphia Eagles: A.J. Brown (37'), A.J. Brown (57') · Chicago Bears: D'Andre Swift (14' Tipped ⚡), Kyle Monangai (48' Tipped ⚡), Cole Kmet (54')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 89% | Lost |
| Chicago Bears | 11% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 13.6 predicted → 9 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 13, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Nov 2025, 07:00 am_

Philadelphia Eagles 15–24 Chicago Bears in NFL Week 13 at Lincoln Financial Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Final score: Chicago Bears 24, Philadelphia Eagles 15. Nine points doesn't begin to cover it. The Bears ran for 281 yards to Philadelphia's 87, a gap that on its own would suggest a blowout rather than a game decided by a converted two-point try. Total yards told a similar story: 435 to 317 in Chicago's favour, and an offensive EPA split of plus-3.5 for the Bears against minus-2.1 for the Eagles. However close the scoreboard finished, Chicago were clearly the better team on the day.

That backfield mismatch was written into the game before kickoff. Chicago's backfield rated 61 to Philadelphia's 43 in the pre-match positional numbers, and Kyle Monangai turned that edge into 130 yards on 22 carries plus a touchdown, the game's leading rushing performance by some margin. D'Andre Swift got the scoring started for Chicago, and Cole Kmet added a third touchdown later on. Philadelphia's pass rush was rated the stronger unit, 63 to 48, and the Eagles did register two sacks to Chicago's none. It didn't matter much. The Bears simply ran through the middle instead of testing it through the air, and Caleb Williams only needed 154 passing yards to get the job done.

The shape of the game backs up the numbers. Chicago led 7-0 after the first quarter and 10-3 at half-time, a workmanlike start rather than a dominant one. Philadelphia clawed within a point when A.J. Brown scored with 8:11 left in the third to make it 9-10, and for a stretch this looked like the tight, competitive game the pre-match model expected. Brown was Philadelphia's whole story through the air: 10 catches for 132 yards and both of the Eagles' touchdowns, comfortably the best individual output on the field for either side.

Then the fourth quarter turned it into a different contest. Kyle Monangai scored with 12:53 left to push Chicago back in front at 16-9, and Cole Kmet followed it up at the 6:26 mark to make it 23-9. That 14-point burst in the space of six minutes is where the game actually got decided, not in some mythical third-quarter surge. Brown's second touchdown, with 3:14 remaining, only tidied up the final margin to nine.

Jalen Hurts finished 19-of-34 for 230 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, numbers that look perfectly respectable next to Caleb Williams' 17-of-36 for 154 yards, one touchdown and a pick. But yardage through the air wasn't where this game was won. Philadelphia lost the turnover battle 2 to 1, and combined with getting bullied on the ground, that was enough.

Alphr's model had Philadelphia as 89 percent favourites here, expected to win by 13.6 points on a projected combined total of 51. Chicago's win is a genuine upset by that measure, and the final margin of nine points, in the Bears' favour rather than Philadelphia's, means the model missed this one badly. The pre-match form lines hinted at why: Chicago arrived averaging 27.4 points a game to Philadelphia's 22.6, and conceding the same 27.4, a boom-or-bust profile that showed up in full against a favourite that never found its rushing game.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 |
| Chicago Bears | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Philadelphia Eagles | Stat | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| 317 | Total Yards | **435** |
| **230** | Passing Yards | 154 |
| 87 | Rushing Yards | **281** |
| 24 | First Downs | **37** |
| 2 | Turnovers | **1** |
| **2** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| -2.1 | Offensive EPA | **3.5** |

**Model Report Card**

Chicago Bears defied the model's 89% prediction for Philadelphia Eagles, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 13.6 but the actual margin was 9 points. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

**Referee Watch**

Carl Cheffers officiated this match (286 career games). The combined score of 39 points was 6 points below Carl Cheffers's career average of 45. Chicago Bears bucked the trend, Philadelphia Eagles historically win 44% of games under Carl Cheffers, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Carl Cheffers's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Chicago Bears prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Philadelphia Eagles to win @ $1.29 (edge +11.3%) — model probability 88.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles -7 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Philadelphia Eagles by 14 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Philadelphia Eagles here: 89% to see off Chicago Bears. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Philadelphia Eagles sit 176 ELO points clear, 1677 to 1501.

Philadelphia Eagles own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Philadelphia Eagles by 13.6, with the two sides combining for about 51. Philadelphia Eagles to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Philadelphia Eagles have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Chicago Bears took the most recent meeting 24-15 in 2025 Week 13.

Philadelphia Eagles went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 22.3 points for and 19.1 against.

Chicago Bears went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 25.9 points for and 24.4 against.

Jalen Hurts starts under centre for Philadelphia Eagles, Caleb Williams for Chicago Bears, with Nick Sirianni and Ben Johnson calling the shots.

The market has Philadelphia Eagles favourites, Philadelphia Eagles $1.29 and Chicago Bears $3.70, with the spread at Philadelphia Eagles -7 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Philadelphia Eagles 7 · Chicago Bears 5 |
| Last meeting | Chicago Bears 24-15 (2025) |
| Philadelphia Eagles 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-3 home |
| Philadelphia Eagles scoring | 22.3 for · 19.1 against |
| Chicago Bears 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-4 away |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 25.9 for · 24.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jalen Hurts · Caleb Williams |
| Head coaches | Nick Sirianni · Ben Johnson |
| Market | Philadelphia Eagles $1.29 · Chicago Bears $3.70 |
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -7 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Carl Cheffers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Philadelphia Eagles

**Carl Cheffers** — 286 career games since 2008.

| Team | Record under Carl Cheffers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 8W–10L | 44% |
| Chicago Bears | 6W–14L | 30% |

Avg total: 45.0 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Philadelphia Eagles hold a 14-point edge: 8W–10L (44%) vs Chicago Bears's 6W–14L (30%). Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Philadelphia Eagles | Stat | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 22.6pts | Avg Score | 27.4pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Conceded | 27.4pts |
| 6.2pts | Avg Margin | 0.0pts |
| 5.0d | Rest Days | 5.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | W7 W · W8 W · W10 W · W11 W · W12 L | 22.6 |
| Chicago Bears | W8 L · W9 W · W10 W · W11 W · W12 W | 27.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Philadelphia Eagles lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W13 | Philadelphia Eagles | 15 – 24 | Chicago Bears |
| 2022 | W15 | Chicago Bears | 20 – 25 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2019 | W9 | Philadelphia Eagles | 22 – 14 | Chicago Bears |
| 2018 | W18 | Chicago Bears | 15 – 16 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2017 | W12 | Philadelphia Eagles | 31 – 3 | Chicago Bears |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lincoln Financial Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jalen Hurts | QB | 8 in 11g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 3/1g | 38/46g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Dallas Goedert | TE | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·2·1·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 15/55g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Saquon Barkley | RB | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 16/20g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.88 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | A.J. Brown | WR | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 18/32g | 38% | — | 🏉 37' 57' |
| – | DeVonta Smith | WR | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 19/42g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jahan Dotson | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/15g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Britain Covey | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/18g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Cameron Latu | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Will Shipley | RB | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/11g | 6% | — | — |

**Chicago Bears** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Rome Odunze | WR | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/8g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 14' |
| – | Caleb Williams | QB | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | DJ Moore | WR | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 48' |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Travis Homer | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Chicago Bears** (3 picks)
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 41% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Kyle Monangai — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 36% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Rome Odunze — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Bears: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Kmet

**Philadelphia Eagles** (3 picks)
- ⚡ DeVonta Smith 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Saquon Barkley 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Dallas Goedert 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- Rest of the Eagles: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: A.Brown

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Philadelphia Eagles 1677 · Chicago Bears 1501 · ELO difference: 176 in favour of Philadelphia Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Philadelphia Eagles | Chicago Bears | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 66 | 62 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 63 | 65 | Even |
| Backfield | 43 | 61 | Chicago Bears +18 |
| Pass Rush | 63 | 48 | Philadelphia Eagles +15 |
| Secondary | 57 | 57 | Even |
| Special Teams | 52 | 70 | Chicago Bears +18 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 89%** — Philadelphia Eagles predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-28 20:00 UTC (latest tip update)