# New York Jets v Atlanta Falcons — NFL Week 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New York Jets 27 – 24 Atlanta Falcons

_New York Jets blow past a gallant Atlanta Falcons._

Half time: 7 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New York Jets 32% / Atlanta Falcons 68% · MetLife Stadium · Mon, 01 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New York Jets: Breece Hall (16' Tipped ⚡), Adonai Mitchell (36'), Tyrod Taylor (58') · Atlanta Falcons: Tyler Allgeier (30' Tipped ⚡), Bijan Robinson (36' Tipped ⚡), David Sills (52')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 68% | Lost |
| New York Jets | 32% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 13, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

New York Jets 27–24 Atlanta Falcons in NFL Week 13 at MetLife Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Atlanta Falcons winning this by 3.9 points, on the back of a 68% probability tip. New York Jets won it by 3, 27-24. So the margin was close enough to touch, the winner was not.

That's the strange thing about this one. The Jets went home with the result, but Atlanta did almost everything a stronger side is supposed to do. They put up 401 yards to New York's 282, ran for 167 of them, and finished at plus 11.7 on offensive EPA against the Jets' 0.6. That's not a close statistical contest. It's the kind of gap that usually shows up on the scoreboard too, and this time it didn't.

The game was locked at 7-7 through two quarters, Breece Hall opening the scoring for New York before Tyler Allgeier levelled it right on the buzzer. From there it turned into a shootout nobody could pull away from. Bijan Robinson put Atlanta up 14-7 early in the third, Adonai Mitchell answered straight back for the Jets less than a minute later, and by the end of the quarter Atlanta led 17-14. David Sills stretched it to 23-17 in the fourth. New York's response came from an unlikely source: Tyrod Taylor's own touchdown with two minutes left made it 24-23, and whatever New York did after that carried it home 27-24.

Individually, Atlanta had the two standout performers on the field. Robinson led all rushers with 142 yards on 23 carries and a score, doing the bulk of that 167-yard rushing total on his own. Kirk Cousins was efficient too, 21 of 33 for 234 yards and a touchdown. Taylor, by contrast, needed 33 attempts to get to 172 yards, completing 19, but he found the one throw that mattered less than most, his legs for the go-ahead score. Mitchell was the game's leading receiver regardless of team, 8 catches for 102 yards and a touchdown, doing plenty to keep New York in a game their yardage totals say they shouldn't have been in.

Go back to the positional sheet and Atlanta's edge on paper matches what showed up in the box score. They rated stronger in the secondary, 65 to 50, and in pass rush, 61 to 55, and it was their offense that had the freer day, not New York's. The Jets' advantages were at quarterback and receiver, on paper, and Mitchell at least made that one stand up.

Form coming in had these two roughly level, Atlanta winning one of their last five to New York's two, both sides conceding more than they scored across that stretch. Neither team's recent trend screamed a 51-point shootout, but that's what turned up, 17 points clear of the model's projected total of 34.

So the model's margin read held up fine, 3.9 projected against 3 actual. The winner is where it missed, and Atlanta will look at 401 yards, 167 on the ground and an 11.7 EPA edge and wonder how that becomes a loss. New York will just take the two points and not ask too many questions.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 0 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 27 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New York Jets | Stat | Atlanta Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| 282 | Total Yards | **401** |
| 172 | Passing Yards | **234** |
| 110 | Rushing Yards | **167** |
| 23 | First Downs | **35** |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | 2 |
| 0.6 | Offensive EPA | **11.7** |

**Model Report Card**

New York Jets defied the model's 68% prediction for Atlanta Falcons, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 3.9 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The game's 51 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 34. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Hochuli officiated this match (130 career games). The combined score of 51 points was 6 points above Shawn Hochuli's career average of 45. New York Jets bucked the trend, Atlanta Falcons historically win 80% of games under Shawn Hochuli, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Atlanta Falcons to win @ $1.60 (edge +6.0%) — model probability 68.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** New York Jets +3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 38.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Atlanta Falcons by 4 · Predicted total: 34

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Atlanta Falcons here: 68% to see off New York Jets. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Atlanta Falcons sit 68 ELO points clear, 1423 to 1354. Form leans New York Jets' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Atlanta Falcons.

Atlanta Falcons own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Secondary. The margin model has Atlanta Falcons by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 34. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Atlanta Falcons to win, not to win big.

Atlanta Falcons have won 5 of the last 7 between these two, and New York Jets took the most recent meeting 27-24 in 2025 Week 13.

New York Jets went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 at home, averaging 17.6 points for and 29.6 against.

Atlanta Falcons went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 20.8 points for and 23.6 against.

Tyrod Taylor starts under centre for New York Jets, Kirk Cousins for Atlanta Falcons, with Aaron Glenn and Raheem Morris calling the shots.

The market has Atlanta Falcons favourites, New York Jets $2.40 and Atlanta Falcons $1.60, with the spread at Atlanta Falcons -3 and the total at 38.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | New York Jets 2 · Atlanta Falcons 5 |
| Last meeting | New York Jets 27-24 (2025) |
| New York Jets 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 home |
| New York Jets scoring | 17.6 for · 29.6 against |
| Atlanta Falcons 2025 so far | 8-9 · 4-5 away |
| Atlanta Falcons scoring | 20.8 for · 23.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Tyrod Taylor · Kirk Cousins |
| Head coaches | Aaron Glenn · Raheem Morris |
| Market | New York Jets $2.40 · Atlanta Falcons $1.60 |
| Spread | Atlanta Falcons -3 · total 38.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Hochuli |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Atlanta Falcons

**Shawn Hochuli** — 130 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Hochuli | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 2W–5L | 29% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4W–1L | 80% |

Avg total: 45.1 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

When Shawn Hochuli officiates, Atlanta Falcons have won 4 of 5 games (80%), significantly stronger than New York Jets's 2 from 7 (29%). Small sample (5 games for Atlanta Falcons).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New York Jets | Stat | Atlanta Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 19.2pts | Avg Score | 21.8pts |
| 24.2pts | Avg Conceded | 25.8pts |
| -5.0pts | Avg Margin | -4.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | W7 L · W8 W · W10 W · W11 L · W12 L | 19.2 |
| Atlanta Falcons | W8 L · W9 L · W10 L · W11 L · W12 W | 21.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Atlanta Falcons lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W13 | New York Jets | 27 – 24 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2023 | W13 | New York Jets | 8 – 13 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2021 | W5 | Atlanta Falcons | 27 – 20 | New York Jets |
| 2017 | W8 | New York Jets | 20 – 25 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2013 | W5 | Atlanta Falcons | 28 – 30 | New York Jets |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MetLife Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New York Jets** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Breece Hall | RB | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 11/27g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 16' |
| – | John Metchie III | WR | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Allen Lazard | WR | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/17g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Beck | RB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Williams | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Ruckert | TE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/21g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mason Taylor | TE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.70 AI 20% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Adonai Mitchell | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Isaiah Davis | RB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/12g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tyrod Taylor | QB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 8% | — | 🏉 58' |

**Atlanta Falcons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Tyler Allgeier | RB | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| – | Bijan Robinson | RB | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.72 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.60 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' |
| – | Darnell Mooney | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 23% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | David Sills | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 7% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Kyle Pitts | TE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Deven Thompkins | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Drummond | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jamal Agnew | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Kirk Cousins | QB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 6% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Atlanta Falcons** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Bijan Robinson 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 47% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Tyler Allgeier 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 31% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Darnell Mooney 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- ⚡ Kyle Pitts — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Falcons: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Sills

**New York Jets** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Breece Hall 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 38% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Mason Taylor — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 20% · no TD
- Rest of the Jets: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: A.Mitchell, T.Taylor

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New York Jets 1354 · Atlanta Falcons 1423 · ELO difference: 68 in favour of Atlanta Falcons

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New York Jets | Atlanta Falcons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 45 | 39 | New York Jets +6 |
| Receiving Corps | 47 | 36 | New York Jets +11 |
| Backfield | 59 | 57 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 55 | 61 | Atlanta Falcons +6 |
| Secondary | 50 | 65 | Atlanta Falcons +15 |
| Special Teams | 58 | 60 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New York Jets |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Atlanta Falcons |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Atlanta Falcons |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New York Jets |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Atlanta Falcons predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 34 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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