# New England Patriots v New York Giants — NFL Week 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New England Patriots 33 – 15 New York Giants

_New England Patriots see off New York Giants._

Half time: 30 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New England Patriots 97% / New York Giants 3% · Gillette Stadium · Tue, 02 Dec, 12:15 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New England Patriots: Marcus Jones (10'), Kayshon Boutte (14'), Kyle Williams (27') · New York Giants: Darius Slayton (18'), Devin Singletary (45')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 97% | Won |
| New York Giants | 3% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.3 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New England Patriots vs New York Giants Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 13, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 Dec 2025, 12:15 pm_

New England Patriots 33–15 New York Giants in NFL Week 13 at Gillette Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ten win two three, in expected points. That's the gap between New England's offense and New York's, 10.3 to minus 5.8, and it explains the 33-15 final at Gillette Stadium better than any highlight reel could.

The Patriots didn't need to be tidy, just efficient, and they were both. First downs went 35 to 17, total yards 401 to 250, and New England built the lead early. Mac Jones opened the scoring in the first quarter, Kayshon Boutte followed it up with just over a minute left in the same period, and by the end of the first, it was 17-0. Darius Slayton got the Giants on the board in the second quarter, but Kyle Williams answered straight back for New England, and it was 30-7 at the half. Nothing that happened after that changed the outcome, just the margin. Devin Singletary's fourth-quarter touchdown made it 30-13 and the final was 33-15, but by then this one had been decided for a while.

Drake Maye had the kind of day that makes an 8.3-point pre-match line look conservative: 24 from 31 for 282 yards and two touchdowns. Jaxson Dart wasn't disgraceful opposite him, 17 from 24 for 139 and a score, but he was throwing into a deficit that only grew. Hunter Henry led all receivers with four catches for 73 yards, and Singletary, for all the Giants' offensive trouble, still finished as the game's leading rusher with 68 yards on 12 carries and a touchdown. Wins and misses, all of it, from a side that lost by 18.

The sack count actually favoured New York, 3 to 2, and on another day that pass rush number might have meant something. It didn't here, because the rest of the sheet was so lopsided. Rushing yards were close, 119 to 111, but everything else, passing yards, first downs, total offense, belonged to New England. Turnovers were even at zero apiece, so this wasn't decided by giveaways. It was decided by New England simply doing more with the ball every time it had it.

The positional ratings going in had New York with the better quarterback, 73 to 60, a better receiving corps and a stronger pass rush on paper. None of that showed up where it mattered. New England's edge in special teams, 70 to 57, and secondary, 64 to 55, told more of the story, and the form lines backed it up: Patriots five wins from five, Giants five losses from five, an average margin of plus 8.8 against minus 9.2. That gap didn't just hold, it widened.

Alphr's model had New England at 97 percent to win, expected them by 8.3, and pegged the total at 49. The final margin came in at 18, more than double the projected number, but the total landed at 48, within a point. The direction was never in doubt. The size of it was the only surprise, and even that wasn't much of one given how the form lines read coming in.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 17 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 33 |
| New York Giants | 0 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 15 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New England Patriots | Stat | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| **401** | Total Yards | 250 |
| **282** | Passing Yards | 139 |
| **119** | Rushing Yards | 111 |
| **35** | First Downs | 17 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| **10.3** | Offensive EPA | -5.8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted New England Patriots to win at 97% probability. The predicted margin of 8.3 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Total score prediction of 49 was close to the actual 48, within 1 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Kemp officiated this match (132 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Alex Kemp's career average of 46. New England Patriots's victory aligns with Alex Kemp's historical trend, New England Patriots have a 64% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** New England Patriots to win @ $1.27 (edge +18.1%) — model probability 97.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New England Patriots -7 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: New England Patriots by 8 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on New England Patriots here: 97% to see off New York Giants. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: New England Patriots sit 205 ELO points clear, 1550 to 1346. Form leans New England Patriots' way: 5 from their last 5, against 0 for New York Giants.

New England Patriots own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has New England Patriots by 8.3, with the two sides combining for about 49. New England Patriots to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

New England Patriots have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and New England Patriots took the most recent meeting 33-15 in 2025 Week 13.

New England Patriots went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 28.8 points for and 18.8 against.

New York Giants went 4-13 in 2025 so far, 1-8 away, averaging 22.4 points for and 25.8 against.

Drake Maye starts under centre for New England Patriots, Jaxson Dart for New York Giants, with Mike Vrabel and Brian Daboll calling the shots.

The market has New England Patriots favourites, New England Patriots $1.27 and New York Giants $3.95, with the spread at New England Patriots -7 and the total at 46.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | New England Patriots 6 · New York Giants 4 |
| Last meeting | New England Patriots 33-15 (2025) |
| New England Patriots 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-3 home |
| New England Patriots scoring | 28.8 for · 18.8 against |
| New York Giants 2025 so far | 4-13 · 1-8 away |
| New York Giants scoring | 22.4 for · 25.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Drake Maye · Jaxson Dart |
| Head coaches | Mike Vrabel · Brian Daboll |
| Market | New England Patriots $1.27 · New York Giants $3.95 |
| Spread | New England Patriots -7 · total 46.5 |
| Referee | Alex Kemp |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours New England Patriots

**Alex Kemp** — 132 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Alex Kemp | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 7W–4L | 64% |
| New York Giants | 2W–3L | 40% |

Avg total: 46.0 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Alex Kemp officiates, New England Patriots have won 7 of 11 games (64%), significantly stronger than New York Giants's 2 from 5 (40%). Small sample (5 games for New York Giants).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New England Patriots | Stat | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 27.4pts | Avg Score | 22.2pts |
| 18.6pts | Avg Conceded | 31.4pts |
| 8.8pts | Avg Margin | -9.2pts |
| 8.0d | Rest Days | 8.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | W8 W · W9 W · W10 W · W11 W · W12 W | 27.4 |
| New York Giants | W8 L · W9 L · W10 L · W11 L · W12 L | 22.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New England Patriots lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W13 | New England Patriots | 33 – 15 | New York Giants |
| 2023 | W12 | New York Giants | 10 – 7 | New England Patriots |
| 2019 | W6 | New England Patriots | 35 – 14 | New York Giants |
| 2015 | W10 | New York Giants | 26 – 27 | New England Patriots |
| 2011 | CONF | New England Patriots | 17 – 21 | New York Giants |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gillette Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·3·0) | 0/0g | 4/6g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.02 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 14/38g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Kayshon Boutte | WR | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/13g | 29% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/19g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 14/29g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 33% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Stefon Diggs | WR | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 9/12g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 37% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/12g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Mack Hollins | WR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/9g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 11% | — | 🏉 27' |
| – | Terrell Jennings | RB | 1 in 5g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Efton Chism III | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**New York Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jaxson Dart | QB | 7 in 9g | 7/9g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Theo Johnson | TE | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Devin Singletary | RB | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 4/8g | 2/4g | 22% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Gunner Olszewski | WR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/18g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Hodgins | WR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Darius Slayton | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 12% | — | 🏉 18' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Giants** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jaxson Dart 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (6 rush · 0 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Wan'Dale Robinson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Tyrone Tracy Jr. 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Giants: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Slayton, D.Singletary

**New England Patriots** (3 picks)
- ⚡ TreVeyon Henderson 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- ⚡ Stefon Diggs — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Rhamondre Stevenson — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- Rest of the Patriots: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Jones, K.Boutte, K.Williams

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New England Patriots 1550 · New York Giants 1346 · ELO difference: 205 in favour of New England Patriots

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New England Patriots | New York Giants | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 60 | 73 | New York Giants +13 |
| Receiving Corps | 61 | 64 | Even |
| Backfield | 55 | 59 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 46 | 55 | New York Giants +9 |
| Secondary | 64 | 55 | New England Patriots +9 |
| Special Teams | 70 | 57 | New England Patriots +13 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | New England Patriots |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New York Giants |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New York Giants |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 97%** — New England Patriots predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-12-02 01:15 UTC (latest tip update)