# Miami Dolphins v New Orleans Saints — NFL Week 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Miami Dolphins 21 – 17 New Orleans Saints

_Miami Dolphins survive a scare against New Orleans Saints._

Half time: 16 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Miami Dolphins 64% / New Orleans Saints 36% · Hard Rock Stadium · Mon, 01 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Miami Dolphins: De'Von Achane (4' Tipped ⚡) · New Orleans Saints: Chris Olave (35' Tipped ⚡), Devaughn Vele (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 64% | Won |
| New Orleans Saints | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.4 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 13, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Miami Dolphins 21–17 New Orleans Saints in NFL Week 13 at Hard Rock Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Miami Dolphins beat New Orleans Saints 21-17 at Hard Rock Stadium. The scoreline suggests a tight one, but for most of the night it wasn't. Miami led 16-0 at half-time, and the Saints didn't get on the board until 10:45 into the third quarter. By full-time, though, the gap on the stat sheet had all but disappeared: 321 total yards for Miami, 320 for New Orleans. A blowout in the first half turned into a one-score finish, and the numbers say it should have stayed close from the start.

The scoring ran like this. De'Von Achane opened it for Miami in the first quarter, and the Dolphins led 7-0 at the end of it, 16-0 at the break. New Orleans finally moved when Chris Olave scored with 10:45 left in the third, making it 16-6, then 16-8 by the end of the quarter. Devaughn Vele's touchdown with 1:23 left in the fourth pulled the Saints to 19-17. Miami closed it out 21-17.

First downs told a different story to the final margin: New Orleans had 30 to Miami's 24, and the Saints actually out-passed the Dolphins by a wide margin, 239 yards to 157. Where Miami won the game was on the ground and on the clock. The Dolphins ran for 164 yards, more than half their total output, against just 81 for New Orleans.

Tua Tagovailoa had a quiet, efficient night through the air for Miami: 12 of 23 for 157 yards with one interception. Tyler Shough threw more, and threw well, going 26 of 38 for 239 yards and two touchdow

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 7 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 21 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 17 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Miami Dolphins | Stat | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| **321** | Total Yards | 320 |
| 157 | Passing Yards | **239** |
| **164** | Rushing Yards | 81 |
| 24 | First Downs | **30** |
| **1** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4 | Sacks Made | 4 |
| **-7.3** | Offensive EPA | -11.7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Miami Dolphins to win at 64% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Miami Dolphins by 3.4 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 38, within 4 points. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alan Eck officiated this match (49 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 7 points below Alan Eck's career average of 45. Miami Dolphins bucked the trend, New Orleans Saints historically win 60% of games under Alan Eck, but couldn't convert that edge today. Miami Dolphins's home victory fits Alan Eck's profile, home teams win 67% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Miami Dolphins to win @ $1.40 (edge -7.8%) — model probability 63.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Miami Dolphins -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Miami Dolphins by 3 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Miami Dolphins are the call at 64%, but New Orleans Saints stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Miami Dolphins sit 128 ELO points clear, 1461 to 1333. Form leans Miami Dolphins' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for New Orleans Saints.

Miami Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Miami Dolphins by 3.4, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Miami Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is even: 3 wins each from the last 6 meetings, Miami Dolphins taking the most recent 21-17 in 2025 Week 13.

Miami Dolphins went 7-10 in 2025 so far, 5-4 at home, averaging 20.4 points for and 24.9 against.

New Orleans Saints went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-6 away, averaging 18.0 points for and 22.5 against.

Tua Tagovailoa starts under centre for Miami Dolphins, Tyler Shough for New Orleans Saints, with Mike McDaniel and Kellen Moore calling the shots.

Miami Dolphins come in fresher, 14 days between games against 7.

The market has Miami Dolphins favourites, Miami Dolphins $1.40 and New Orleans Saints $3.05, with the spread at Miami Dolphins -5.5 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 6) | Miami Dolphins 3 · New Orleans Saints 3 |
| Last meeting | Miami Dolphins 21-17 (2025) |
| Miami Dolphins 2025 so far | 7-10 · 5-4 home |
| Miami Dolphins scoring | 20.4 for · 24.9 against |
| New Orleans Saints 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-6 away |
| New Orleans Saints scoring | 18.0 for · 22.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Tua Tagovailoa · Tyler Shough |
| Head coaches | Mike McDaniel · Kellen Moore |
| Rest | Miami Dolphins 14d · New Orleans Saints 7d |
| Market | Miami Dolphins $1.40 · New Orleans Saints $3.05 |
| Spread | Miami Dolphins -5.5 · total 41.5 |
| Referee | Alan Eck |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours New Orleans Saints

**Alan Eck** — 49 career games since 2023.

| Team | Record under Alan Eck | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 1W–1L | 50% |
| New Orleans Saints | 3W–2L | 60% |

Avg total: 44.9 pts · Home win %: 67% · Home bias: Leans home

New Orleans Saints hold a 10-point edge: 3W–2L (60%) vs Miami Dolphins's 1W–1L (50%). Home teams win 67% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (2 games for Miami Dolphins).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Miami Dolphins | Stat | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 18.4pts | Avg Score | 10.8pts |
| 19.0pts | Avg Conceded | 22.8pts |
| -0.6pts | Avg Margin | -12.0pts |
| 14.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | W7 L · W8 W · W9 L · W10 W · W11 W | 18.4 |
| New Orleans Saints | W7 L · W8 L · W9 L · W10 W · W12 L | 10.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New Orleans Saints lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W13 | Miami Dolphins | 21 – 17 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2021 | W16 | New Orleans Saints | 3 – 20 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2017 | W4 | Miami Dolphins | 0 – 20 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2013 | W4 | New Orleans Saints | 38 – 17 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2009 | W7 | Miami Dolphins | 34 – 46 | New Orleans Saints |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Hard Rock Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Miami Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | De'Von Achane | RB | 9 in 11g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·2·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 20/21g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.80 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.00 AI 15% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' |
| – | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 11/36g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Darren Waller | TE | 4 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 3/3g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Malik Washington | WR | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/12g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.60 AI 18% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Ollie Gordon II | RB | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Cedrick Wilson Jr. | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/13g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Greg Dulcich | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jaylen Wright | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Julian Hill | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/41g | 0% | — | — |

**New Orleans Saints** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chris Olave | WR | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 28% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' |
| – | Juwan Johnson | TE | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.60 AI 20% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $19.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Devaughn Vele | WR | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Taysom Hill | TE | 1 in 7g | 4/10g (0·3·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Dante Pettis | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Devin Neal | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Evan Hull | RB | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Foster Moreau | TE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Mason Tipton | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Shough | QB | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New Orleans Saints** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Chris Olave 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Juwan Johnson 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 20% · no TD
- Rest of the Saints: 1 TD across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Vele

**Miami Dolphins** (4 picks)
- ⚡ De'Von Achane 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 53% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Jaylen Waddle 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Darren Waller — 4 TDs in last 4 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- ⚡ Malik Washington — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 18% · no TD
- Rest of the Dolphins: 2 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Miami Dolphins 1461 · New Orleans Saints 1333 · ELO difference: 128 in favour of Miami Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Miami Dolphins | New Orleans Saints | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 45 | 35 | Miami Dolphins +10 |
| Receiving Corps | 57 | 55 | Even |
| Backfield | 57 | 42 | Miami Dolphins +15 |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 50 | Even |
| Secondary | 49 | 55 | New Orleans Saints +6 |
| Special Teams | 60 | 46 | Miami Dolphins +14 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Miami Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Miami Dolphins predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-30 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)