# Los Angeles Chargers v Las Vegas Raiders — NFL Week 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Los Angeles Chargers 31 – 14 Las Vegas Raiders

_Los Angeles Chargers surge past Las Vegas Raiders._

Half time: 7 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 93% / Las Vegas Raiders 7% · SoFi Stadium · Mon, 01 Dec, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Los Angeles Chargers: Quentin Johnston (11' Tipped ⚡), Kimani Vidal (31' Tipped ⚡), Ladd McConkey (43' Tipped ⚡), Jaret Patterson (58') · Las Vegas Raiders: Brock Bowers (29' Tipped ⚡), Brock Bowers (53' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 93% | Won |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 14.6 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 13, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 Dec 2025, 08:25 am_

Los Angeles Chargers 31–14 Las Vegas Raiders in NFL Week 13 at SoFi Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Los Angeles Chargers 31, Las Vegas Raiders 14, and for most of the first half nobody would have picked it. Quentin Johnston got the home side on the board with just over four minutes left in the first, and it stayed 7-0 until Brock Bowers hauled in his first of the night with 1:54 left in the second to make it 7-6. The Raiders even nudged it level at half-time, 7-7. Then the third quarter happened.

Kimani Vidal opened it up 14:13 into the second half, and by the time Ladd McConkey scored with 2:30 to go in the quarter, the Chargers had put 14 unanswered points on the board and led 21-7. That's the passage that decided this one. The Raiders never got closer than 11 points again, and when Brock Bowers scored his second early in the fourth to make it 24-13, Jaret Patterson answered five minutes later to push it out to 30-14 and shut the door for good.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard did. Los Angeles ran up 352 total yards to 196, and 192 of their own came on the ground, more than half their output. Vidal was the workhorse, 126 yards on 25 carries and a touchdown, and with a backfield rated only modestly ahead of the Raiders' (50 to 45) coming in, that kind of rushing day is well above what the numbers suggested was coming. Offensive EPA tells the same story from a different angle: Chargers +6.9, Raiders -14.9, a gap of nearly 22 points of efficiency snap for snap.

Through the air it was closer than the final margin suggests. Justin Herbert went 15-of-20 for 151 yards and 2 touchdowns with a pick, Geno Smith actually out-threw him on paper at 18-of-23 for 165 and 2 touchdowns with a pick of his own. The receiving corps gap (71 to 55 pre-match) showed up in reliability more than raw numbers, and Bowers made sure the Raiders' passing game had somewhere to go, 4 catches for 63 yards and both his side's touchdowns. Problem was, he was doing it more or less alone. Take Bowers out of the box score and Las Vegas has almost nothing to show for 165 passing yards.

First downs told the same story as everything else, 30 to 19, and the Chargers' pass rush got home 5 times to the Raiders' 3, which matters when your own quarterback is protected. Both sides turned it over once, so it wasn't a giveaway party that swung this. It was a genuine, week-in-week-out gap in how the two teams were built showing up on the field: better receiving corps, better special teams (68 to 47), better rest, 14 days against 7.

The form line said this was coming, even if the Raiders' winless run of five straight losses undersells how competitive the first half actually was. Alphr's model had Los Angeles at 93% to win, expected them by 14.6 and pegged the total at 43. Final margin was 17, final total 45. Wins and misses, all of it, but this one lands about as close to the read as it gets.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 31 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| **352** | Total Yards | 196 |
| 160 | Passing Yards | **165** |
| **192** | Rushing Yards | 31 |
| **30** | First Downs | 19 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| **5** | Sacks Made | 3 |
| **6.9** | Offensive EPA | -14.9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Los Angeles Chargers to win at 93% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Los Angeles Chargers by 14.6 vs the actual margin of 17 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 45, within 2 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Moore officiated this match (15 career games). The combined score of 45 points was 6 points below Alex Moore's career average of 51. Los Angeles Chargers's home victory fits Alex Moore's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Chargers to win @ $1.17 (edge +7.8%) — model probability 93.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Chargers -10 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 15 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Los Angeles Chargers here: 93% to see off Las Vegas Raiders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Chargers sit 211 ELO points clear, 1523 to 1311. Form leans Los Angeles Chargers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Las Vegas Raiders.

Los Angeles Chargers own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Los Angeles Chargers by 14.6, with the two sides combining for about 43. Los Angeles Chargers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Los Angeles Chargers have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Los Angeles Chargers took the most recent meeting 31-14 in 2025 Week 13.

Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 21.6 points for and 20.0 against.

Las Vegas Raiders went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 14.2 points for and 25.4 against.

Justin Herbert starts under centre for Los Angeles Chargers, Geno Smith for Las Vegas Raiders, with Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll calling the shots.

Los Angeles Chargers come in fresher, 14 days between games against 7.

The market has Los Angeles Chargers favourites, Los Angeles Chargers $1.17 and Las Vegas Raiders $5.40, with the spread at Los Angeles Chargers -10 and the total at 40.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Los Angeles Chargers 8 · Las Vegas Raiders 4 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Chargers 31-14 (2025) |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-3 home |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 21.6 for · 20.0 against |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 away |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 14.2 for · 25.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Justin Herbert · Geno Smith |
| Head coaches | Jim Harbaugh · Pete Carroll |
| Rest | Los Angeles Chargers 14d · Las Vegas Raiders 7d |
| Market | Los Angeles Chargers $1.17 · Las Vegas Raiders $5.40 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -10 · total 40.5 |
| Referee | Alex Moore |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Alex Moore** — 15 career games since 2025.

| Team | Record under Alex Moore | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0W–0L | 0% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0W–0L | 0% |

Avg total: 51.1 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Alex Moore, Los Angeles Chargers 0W–0L (0%) and Las Vegas Raiders 0W–0L (0%). Games average 51.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (0 games for Los Angeles Chargers).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 23.8pts | Avg Score | 12.4pts |
| 22.6pts | Avg Conceded | 25.6pts |
| 1.2pts | Avg Margin | -13.2pts |
| 14.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | W7 L · W8 W · W9 W · W10 W · W11 L | 23.8 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | W7 L · W9 L · W10 L · W11 L · W12 L | 12.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Chargers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W13 | Los Angeles Chargers | 31 – 14 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2025 | W2 | Las Vegas Raiders | 9 – 20 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2024 | W18 | Las Vegas Raiders | 20 – 34 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2024 | W1 | Los Angeles Chargers | 22 – 10 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2023 | W15 | Las Vegas Raiders | 63 – 21 | Los Angeles Chargers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Quentin Johnston | WR | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 7/21g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' |
| – | Keenan Allen | WR | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/14g | 14/34g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 8/14g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 43' |
| – | Kimani Vidal | RB | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.85 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.30 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' |
| – | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 9/46g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tre Harris | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Derius Davis | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/21g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jaret Patterson | RB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 13% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Trey Lance | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |

**Las Vegas Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (0·0·3·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 44% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Brock Bowers | TE | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 26% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' 53' |
| – | Alex Bachman | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Geno Smith | QB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ian Thomas | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bech | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Raheem Mostert | RB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/4g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Lockett | WR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 44% · no TD
- ⚡ Brock Bowers 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 26% · **scored Q2, Q4**
- Rest of the Raiders: 1 TD across the team's last 5

**Los Angeles Chargers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Ladd McConkey 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 31% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Kimani Vidal 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Quentin Johnston — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Keenan Allen — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Chargers: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Patterson

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Chargers 1523 · Las Vegas Raiders 1311 · ELO difference: 211 in favour of Los Angeles Chargers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Chargers | Las Vegas Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 51 | 30 | Los Angeles Chargers +21 |
| Receiving Corps | 71 | 55 | Los Angeles Chargers +16 |
| Backfield | 50 | 45 | Los Angeles Chargers +5 |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 51 | Even |
| Secondary | 54 | 53 | Even |
| Special Teams | 68 | 47 | Los Angeles Chargers +21 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |

**Model Confidence: 93%** — Los Angeles Chargers predicted to win by 15 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-30 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)