# Indianapolis Colts v Houston Texans — NFL Week 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Indianapolis Colts 16 – 20 Houston Texans

_Houston Texans rope in Indianapolis Colts in a tight one._

Half time: 6 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Indianapolis Colts 71% / Houston Texans 29% · Lucas Oil Stadium · Mon, 01 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Indianapolis Colts: Alec Pierce (22' Tipped ⚡), Tyler Warren (43' Tipped ⚡) · Houston Texans: Nick Chubb (25'), Nico Collins (48' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 71% | Lost |
| Houston Texans | 29% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.1 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 13, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Indianapolis Colts 16–20 Houston Texans in NFL Week 13 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Houston Texans led for all but a few minutes of this one, and the gap only ever nudged out to four points, but that was enough. Final score 20-16 at Lucas Oil Stadium, and the Colts spent the whole afternoon chasing a scoreboard that never let them get comfortable.

Houston opened with a field goal in the first quarter, 3-0, and that was the shape of things early. Indianapolis grabbed their only lead of the day when Alec Pierce scored with 8:46 left in the second quarter, 6-3. It lasted five minutes. Nick Chubb got Houston back in front, 9-6, and by half-time it was 10-6 Texans. Every time the Colts found a way in front, Houston had an answer within minutes.

The third quarter belonged to Indianapolis. Tyler Warren scored with 2:55 left in the period to tie it at 13-13, and that scoreline held to the end of the quarter. It was the closest the Colts got to seizing control all game. Then Nico Collins put Houston back in front early in the fourth, 19-13 with 12:44 to go, and that was the last lead change. Indianapolis clawed back to 16-20 but never found the score to level it again.

The stats explain why Houston were dictating rather than defending. They finished with 384 total yards to the Colts' 287, and 35 first downs to 23. Offensive EPA had Houston at 0.8 and Indianapolis at minus 5.9, a gap of 6.7 expected points a snap. That is not a team hanging on for four quarters, that is a team moving the ball with far more control while the other side searched for answers.

Through the air, C.J. Stroud went 22 of 35 for 276 yards with an interception, while Daniel Jones was 14 of 27 for 201 yards and two touchdowns. Jones's efficiency in the red zone kept it within a score, but the volume and the control of the game sat with Houston all day. Nico Collins was the standout target, 5 catches for 98 yards, doing plenty of that damage against a Colts secondary rated 56 to Houston's 70 coming into the game.

On the ground, Jonathan Taylor led all rushers with 85 yards on 21 carries, a solid shift by any measure. It's worth noting the Colts' backfield was rated 87 against Houston's 46 before kickoff, yet Houston still out-rushed Indianapolis 108 yards to 86. That mismatch not showing up in the run game numbers says plenty about how the afternoon actually played out.

Houston also lost the turnover battle, coughing the ball up once to Indianapolis's zero, and still won by four. When the yardage, first downs and EPA all lean one way that heavily, a single turnover isn't enough to flip the result. It just means the final margin was closer than the run of play suggested it should have been.

This result was a genuine upset by Alphr's own numbers. The model had Indianapolis favoured by 6.1 points and gave them a 71 percent chance of winning. Instead Houston got the four points that mattered. The model also pegged this as a 52 point shootout. Instead it finished at 36, a defensive arm wrestle dressed up as a shootout on paper.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 0 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 16 |
| Houston Texans | 3 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Indianapolis Colts | Stat | Houston Texans |
|---|---|---|
| 287 | Total Yards | **384** |
| 201 | Passing Yards | **276** |
| 86 | Rushing Yards | **108** |
| 23 | First Downs | **35** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| **2** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| -5.9 | Offensive EPA | **0.8** |

**Model Report Card**

Houston Texans defied the model's 71% prediction for Indianapolis Colts, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 6.1 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The game's 36 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 52. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

**Referee Watch**

Clay Martin officiated this match (127 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 10 points below Clay Martin's career average of 46. Houston Texans's victory aligns with Clay Martin's historical trend, Houston Texans have a 50% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Indianapolis Colts to win @ $1.59 (edge +8.2%) — model probability 71.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Indianapolis Colts -3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Indianapolis Colts by 6 · Predicted total: 52

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Indianapolis Colts here: 71% to see off Houston Texans. The ratings say otherwise: Houston Texans sit 26 ELO points clear, 1572 to 1546, so the model is backing Indianapolis Colts against the ratings gap. Form leans Houston Texans' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Indianapolis Colts.

On paper Houston Texans shade it, ahead on 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The model still sides with Indianapolis Colts, which says the balance of the matchup carry the most weight. The margin model has Indianapolis Colts by 6.1, with the two sides combining for about 52. Indianapolis Colts to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Houston Texans have won 6 of the last 12 between these two, and Houston Texans took the most recent meeting 38-30 in 2025 Week 18.

Indianapolis Colts went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 27.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Houston Texans went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 23.8 points for and 17.4 against.

Daniel Jones starts under centre for Indianapolis Colts, C.J. Stroud for Houston Texans, with Shane Steichen and DeMeco Ryans calling the shots.

Houston Texans come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Indianapolis Colts favourites, Indianapolis Colts $1.59 and Houston Texans $2.42, with the spread at Indianapolis Colts -3 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Indianapolis Colts 5 · Houston Texans 6 |
| Last meeting | Houston Texans 38-30 (2025) |
| Indianapolis Colts 2025 so far | 8-9 · 6-3 home |
| Indianapolis Colts scoring | 27.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Houston Texans 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-3 away |
| Houston Texans scoring | 23.8 for · 17.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Daniel Jones · C.J. Stroud |
| Head coaches | Shane Steichen · DeMeco Ryans |
| Rest | Indianapolis Colts 7d · Houston Texans 10d |
| Market | Indianapolis Colts $1.59 · Houston Texans $2.42 |
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts -3 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Clay Martin |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Houston Texans

**Clay Martin** — 127 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Clay Martin | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 1W–6L | 14% |
| Houston Texans | 5W–5L | 50% |

Avg total: 46.3 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

When Clay Martin officiates, Houston Texans have won 5 of 10 games (50%), significantly stronger than Indianapolis Colts's 1 from 7 (14%). Small sample (7 games for Indianapolis Colts).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Indianapolis Colts | Stat | Houston Texans |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 29.4pts | Avg Score | 23.2pts |
| 22.6pts | Avg Conceded | 18.8pts |
| 6.8pts | Avg Margin | 4.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | W7 W · W8 W · W9 L · W10 W · W12 L | 29.4 |
| Houston Texans | W8 W · W9 L · W10 W · W11 W · W12 W | 23.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Houston Texans lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Houston Texans | 38 – 30 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2025 | W13 | Indianapolis Colts | 16 – 20 | Houston Texans |
| 2024 | W8 | Houston Texans | 23 – 20 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2024 | W1 | Indianapolis Colts | 27 – 29 | Houston Texans |
| 2023 | W18 | Indianapolis Colts | 19 – 23 | Houston Texans |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lucas Oil Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Indianapolis Colts** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jonathan Taylor | RB | 17 in 11g | 17/10g (1·3·0·3·1·3·3·0·3·0) | 10/8g | 41/40g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.47 AI 55% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $4.10 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Michael Pittman | WR | 7 in 11g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 12/46g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 36% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Daniel Jones | QB | 5 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/6g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Warren | TE | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| – | Josh Downs | WR | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/22g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Alec Pierce | WR | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 6/29g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.70 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 22' |
| – | Ameer Abdullah | RB | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/6g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Ogletree | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/17g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Gould | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Laquon Treadwell | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Goodson | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/11g | 6% | — | — |

**Houston Texans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jayden Higgins | WR | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Nico Collins | WR | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 1/3g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 29% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 48' |
| – | Woody Marks | RB | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Xavier Hutchinson | WR | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Nick Chubb | RB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Dalton Schultz | TE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jaylin Noel | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | C.J. Stroud | QB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Cade Stover | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Dare Ogunbowale | RB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Houston Texans** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Nico Collins 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Woody Marks 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Texans: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: N.Chubb

**Indianapolis Colts** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jonathan Taylor 🎯 — 9 TDs in last 5 (8 rush · 1 pass) · model 55% · no TD
- ⚡ Alec Pierce 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 36% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Michael Pittman — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Tyler Warren — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 32% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Colts: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Houston Texans hold the ELO advantage (1572 vs 1546), but the market favours Indianapolis Colts (@1.59). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Indianapolis Colts 1546 · Houston Texans 1572 · ELO difference: 26 in favour of Houston Texans

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Indianapolis Colts | Houston Texans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 55 | 71 | Houston Texans +16 |
| Receiving Corps | 66 | 57 | Indianapolis Colts +9 |
| Backfield | 87 | 46 | Indianapolis Colts +41 |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 58 | Even |
| Secondary | 56 | 70 | Houston Texans +14 |
| Special Teams | 61 | 86 | Houston Texans +25 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Houston Texans |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Houston Texans |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Houston Texans |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Houston Texans |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Houston Texans |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Indianapolis Colts predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 52 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-30 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)