# Detroit Lions v Green Bay Packers — NFL Week 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Detroit Lions 24 – 31 Green Bay Packers

_Green Bay Packers survive a scare against Detroit Lions._

Half time: 14 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Detroit Lions 69% / Green Bay Packers 31% · Ford Field · Fri, 28 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Detroit Lions: David Montgomery (23'), Jameson Williams (30' Tipped ⚡), Isaac TeSlaa (38') · Green Bay Packers: Dontayvion Wicks (16'), Romeo Doubs (28' Tipped ⚡), Christian Watson (35'), Dontayvion Wicks (44')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 69% | Lost |
| Green Bay Packers | 31% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.4 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 13, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

Detroit Lions 24–31 Green Bay Packers in NFL Week 13 at Ford Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Green Bay Packers won 31-24 at Ford Field, and on the surface that reads like a standard away win. Look at the yardage and it reads like a robbery the other way. Detroit actually outgained the Packers, 375 yards to 359, picked up more first downs, 31 to 27, and didn't turn the ball over once. None of it mattered.

The number that actually decided this game is Offensive EPA: 13.8 for Green Bay, 2.3 for Detroit. That's the gap between a team making its yards count and a team just making yards. Green Bay's pass rush also got home three times to Detroit's zero, and against a Lions backfield rated 80 to Green Bay's 61 coming in, that pressure count is the more telling stat than anything in the rushing column.

The scoreboard tells a stop-start story. Green Bay led 3-0 after the first quarter, then pulled away with Dontayvion Wicks' first touchdown to go up 9-0 before David Montgomery got Detroit on the board. Romeo Doubs answered straight back for Green Bay, and Jameson Williams beat the clock with 31 seconds left in the half to make it 14-17 at the break. Nobody was pulling away yet.

The third quarter is where it actually got decided. Christian Watson's touchdown stretched it to 23-14, Isaac TeSlaa hit back to get Detroit within four, and then Wicks scored his second to put Green Bay up 31-21 heading into the fourth. Detroit never scored again. A quiet final quarter against a team already up ten points is how a game like this ends.

Jordan Love's line explains a lot of it: 18 of 30 for 234 yards but four touchdowns, against Jared Goff's tidier 20 of 26 for 256 and two. Green Bay's quarterback rating edge, 62 to 50 coming in, showed up exactly where you'd expect, not in the completion percentage but in the trips to the end zone. Josh Jacobs added 83 yards on 17 carries, the game's leading rusher, and quietly kept the clock working for Green Bay in the second half.

Detroit's best individual number belonged to Jameson Williams, seven catches for 144 yards

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 0 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
| Green Bay Packers | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 31 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Detroit Lions | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| **375** | Total Yards | 359 |
| **256** | Passing Yards | 234 |
| 119 | Rushing Yards | **125** |
| **31** | First Downs | 27 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| 2.3 | Offensive EPA | **13.8** |

**Model Report Card**

Green Bay Packers defied the model's 69% prediction for Detroit Lions, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 0.4 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Ron Torbert officiated this match (150 career games). The combined score of 55 points was 9 points above Ron Torbert's career average of 46. Green Bay Packers's victory aligns with Ron Torbert's historical trend, Green Bay Packers have a 45% win rate under this referee. Despite Ron Torbert's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Green Bay Packers prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Detroit Lions to win @ $1.65 (edge +8.3%) — model probability 69.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Green Bay Packers +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 0 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Detroit Lions here: 69% to see off Green Bay Packers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Detroit Lions sit 22 ELO points clear, 1648 to 1626.

Detroit Lions own the matchup too, leading 2 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO) and Secondary. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Detroit Lions to win, not to win big.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Green Bay Packers taking the most recent 31-24 in 2025 Week 13.

Detroit Lions went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 28.3 points for and 24.3 against.

Green Bay Packers went 9-7-1 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 23.0 points for and 21.2 against.

Jared Goff starts under centre for Detroit Lions, Jordan Love for Green Bay Packers, with Dan Campbell and Matt LaFleur calling the shots.

The market has Detroit Lions favourites, Detroit Lions $1.65 and Green Bay Packers $2.30, with the spread at Detroit Lions -2.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Detroit Lions 6 · Green Bay Packers 6 |
| Last meeting | Green Bay Packers 31-24 (2025) |
| Detroit Lions 2025 so far | 9-8 · 5-3 home |
| Detroit Lions scoring | 28.3 for · 24.3 against |
| Green Bay Packers 2025 so far | 9-7-1 · 4-5 away |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 23.0 for · 21.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jared Goff · Jordan Love |
| Head coaches | Dan Campbell · Matt LaFleur |
| Market | Detroit Lions $1.65 · Green Bay Packers $2.30 |
| Spread | Detroit Lions -2.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Ron Torbert |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Green Bay Packers

**Ron Torbert** — 150 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under Ron Torbert | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 1W–2L | 33% |
| Green Bay Packers | 5W–6L | 45% |

Avg total: 46.2 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

Green Bay Packers hold a 12-point edge: 5W–6L (45%) vs Detroit Lions's 1W–2L (33%). Home teams win 56% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (3 games for Detroit Lions).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Detroit Lions | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 27.0pts | Avg Score | 21.0pts |
| 20.2pts | Avg Conceded | 15.4pts |
| 6.8pts | Avg Margin | 5.6pts |
| 4.0d | Rest Days | 4.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | W7 W · W9 L · W10 W · W11 L · W12 W | 27.0 |
| Green Bay Packers | W8 W · W9 L · W10 L · W11 W · W12 W | 21.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Green Bay Packers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W13 | Detroit Lions | 24 – 31 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2025 | W1 | Green Bay Packers | 27 – 13 | Detroit Lions |
| 2024 | W14 | Detroit Lions | 34 – 31 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2024 | W9 | Green Bay Packers | 14 – 24 | Detroit Lions |
| 2023 | W12 | Detroit Lions | 22 – 29 | Green Bay Packers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ford Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Detroit Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 13 in 11g | 13/10g (1·2·1·1·0·2·0·3·0·3) | 2/5g | 28/24g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.59 AI 58% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.50 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 9 in 11g | 9/10g (3·1·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 3/9g | 25/40g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.10 AI 43% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | David Montgomery | RB | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 8/12g | 16/26g | 56% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Jameson Williams | WR | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 9/24g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' |
| – | Isaac TeSlaa | WR | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/3g | 25% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Anthony Firkser | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jared Goff | QB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 3/43g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ross Dwelley | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sione Vaki | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Kennedy | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |

**Green Bay Packers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Jacobs | RB | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (1·1·0·2·2·2·1·1·1·0) | 7/5g | 4/2g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.81 AI 50% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.10 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $19.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Christian Watson | WR | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/6g | 1/3g | 24% | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | John FitzPatrick | TE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Josh Whyle | TE | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Dontayvion Wicks | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 16' 44' |
| – | Jordan Love | QB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Luke Musgrave | TE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Malik Heath | WR | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 15% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Green Bay Packers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Josh Jacobs 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 50% · no TD
- ⚡ Emanuel Wilson 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Romeo Doubs — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 28% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Packers: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Wicks, C.Watson

**Detroit Lions** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jahmyr Gibbs 🎯 — 8 TDs in last 5 (6 rush · 2 pass) · model 58% · no TD
- ⚡ Amon-Ra St. Brown 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 43% · no TD
- ⚡ Jameson Williams — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Lions: 2 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Montgomery, I.TeSlaa

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Detroit Lions 1648 · Green Bay Packers 1626 · ELO difference: 22 in favour of Detroit Lions

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 50 | 62 | Green Bay Packers +12 |
| Receiving Corps | 51 | 53 | Even |
| Backfield | 80 | 61 | Detroit Lions +19 |
| Pass Rush | 55 | 52 | Even |
| Secondary | 60 | 55 | Detroit Lions +5 |
| Special Teams | 64 | 60 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Detroit Lions favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-27 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)