# Dallas Cowboys v Kansas City Chiefs — NFL Week 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dallas Cowboys 31 – 28 Kansas City Chiefs

_Dallas Cowboys survive a scare against Kansas City Chiefs._

Half time: 17 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dallas Cowboys 19% / Kansas City Chiefs 81% · AT&T Stadium · Fri, 28 Nov, 08:30 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Dallas Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb (9' Tipped ⚡), Malik Davis (27'), Javonte Williams (49' Tipped ⚡) · Kansas City Chiefs: Rashee Rice (2' Tipped ⚡), Travis Kelce (15' Tipped ⚡), Rashee Rice (46' Tipped ⚡), Marquise Brown (57')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 81% | Lost |
| Dallas Cowboys | 19% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.3 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 13, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Nov 2025, 08:30 am_

Dallas Cowboys 31–28 Kansas City Chiefs in NFL Week 13 at AT&T Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time in Arlington had Dallas up 17-14, a lead built despite trailing 7-14 after the first quarter. Kansas City had scored twice inside the opening 13 minutes, through Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce, and looked every bit the side rated stronger at quarterback and out wide. Dallas needed a response and got one just before the break, Malik Davis punching in with 3:17 left in the second to flip the margin.

The third quarter didn't blow the game open, but it did something almost as useful for Dallas: it kept Kansas City off the board entirely. The Cowboys stretched to 20-14 without conceding a point, and that quiet, unspectacular period is arguably where the game was actually won. No hero moment, just a side controlling the ball and the down markers.

Kansas City weren't done, because this was never a game with any real distance in it. Rice scored his second early in the fourth to level it at 20-20, and from there it turned into a shootout finish. Javonte Williams answered straight back to put Dallas up 26-21, Marquise Brown pulled Kansas City within three at 31-27, and the Cowboys held on from there to close it out 31-28. One score, the whole way through the fourth quarter and pretty much the whole game.

The stat sheet tells you why Dallas had just enough. They outgained Kansas City 457 yards to 380, out-rushed them 137 to 119, and got the pass rush home three times to zero. That last number matters against a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes, who still went 23-of-34 for 261 yards and four touchdowns anyway. Four touchdown throws and a loss tells its own story about the margins in this one.

Dak Prescott didn't need to match that volume of scoring throws, finishing 27-of-39 for 320 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, and CeeDee Lamb did plenty of the heavy lifting, seven catches for 112 yards and a score. Javonte Williams led all rushers with 59 yards on 17 carries, useful, grinding work behind a Dallas forward push that had the rated edge in pass rush and secondary coming in, 56 to 51 and 56 to 49 respectively.

Dallas did lose the turnover count, one to none, and against a team like Kansas City that's usually the kind of number that ends up costing you. It didn't here, mostly because the Cowboys made Mahomes work for everything and still found three sacks against a Chiefs line that conceded none at all.

Alphr's model had Kansas City favourites by 7.3 points and gave them an 81 percent chance to win, backed by the higher rating, 1643 to 1493, and clear edges at quarterback and receiver. The predicted margin wasn't far off the truth, three points instead of seven, and the total of 57 landed close to the actual 59. The lean made sense on paper. Dallas just had the better half of the numbers where it counted, and that was enough.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 7 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 31 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dallas Cowboys | Stat | Kansas City Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| **457** | Total Yards | 380 |
| **320** | Passing Yards | 261 |
| **137** | Rushing Yards | 119 |
| **33** | First Downs | 31 |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| 11 | Offensive EPA | **15** |

**Model Report Card**

Dallas Cowboys defied the model's 81% prediction for Kansas City Chiefs, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 7.3 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. Total score prediction of 57 was close to the actual 59, within 2 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 53.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

John Hussey officiated this match (181 career games). The combined score of 59 points was 13 points above John Hussey's career average of 46. Dallas Cowboys bucked the trend, Kansas City Chiefs historically win 64% of games under John Hussey, but couldn't convert that edge today. Dallas Cowboys's home victory fits John Hussey's profile, home teams win 66% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Kansas City Chiefs to win @ $1.54 (edge +15.7%) — model probability 80.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Kansas City Chiefs by 7 · Predicted total: 57

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Kansas City Chiefs here: 81% to see off Dallas Cowboys. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Kansas City Chiefs sit 150 ELO points clear, 1643 to 1493.

Kansas City Chiefs own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Kansas City Chiefs by 7.3, with the two sides combining for about 57. Kansas City Chiefs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Dallas Cowboys have won 4 of the last 6 between these two, and Dallas Cowboys took the most recent meeting 31-28 in 2025 Week 13.

Dallas Cowboys went 7-9-1 in 2025 so far, 4-4 at home, averaging 27.7 points for and 30.1 against.

Kansas City Chiefs went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 21.3 points for and 19.3 against.

Dak Prescott starts under centre for Dallas Cowboys, Patrick Mahomes for Kansas City Chiefs, with Brian Schottenheimer and Andy Reid calling the shots.

The market has Kansas City Chiefs favourites, Dallas Cowboys $2.54 and Kansas City Chiefs $1.54, with the spread at Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 and the total at 53.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 6) | Dallas Cowboys 4 · Kansas City Chiefs 2 |
| Last meeting | Dallas Cowboys 31-28 (2025) |
| Dallas Cowboys 2025 so far | 7-9-1 · 4-4 home |
| Dallas Cowboys scoring | 27.7 for · 30.1 against |
| Kansas City Chiefs 2025 so far | 6-11 · 1-7 away |
| Kansas City Chiefs scoring | 21.3 for · 19.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Dak Prescott · Patrick Mahomes |
| Head coaches | Brian Schottenheimer · Andy Reid |
| Market | Dallas Cowboys $2.54 · Kansas City Chiefs $1.54 |
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 · total 53.5 |
| Referee | John Hussey |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Kansas City Chiefs

**John Hussey** — 181 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under John Hussey | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 5W–6L | 45% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 9W–5L | 64% |

Avg total: 45.8 pts · Home win %: 66% · Home bias: Leans home

When John Hussey officiates, Kansas City Chiefs have won 9 of 14 games (64%), significantly stronger than Dallas Cowboys's 5 from 11 (45%). Home teams win 66% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dallas Cowboys | Stat | Kansas City Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 28.4pts | Avg Score | 24.4pts |
| 26.0pts | Avg Conceded | 15.4pts |
| 2.4pts | Avg Margin | 9.0pts |
| 4.0d | Rest Days | 4.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | W7 W · W8 L · W9 L · W11 W · W12 W | 28.4 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | W7 W · W8 W · W9 L · W11 L · W12 W | 24.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dallas Cowboys lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W13 | Dallas Cowboys | 31 – 28 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2021 | W11 | Kansas City Chiefs | 19 – 9 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2017 | W9 | Dallas Cowboys | 28 – 17 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2013 | W2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 17 – 16 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2009 | W5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 20 – 26 | Dallas Cowboys |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AT&T Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dallas Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Javonte Williams | RB | 9 in 11g | 7/10g (1·0·1·2·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 3/6g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.74 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| – | George Pickens | WR | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (1·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 4/5g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 50% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jake Ferguson | TE | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (0·0·1·2·1·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 11/27g | 30% | — | — |
| – | CeeDee Lamb | WR | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 26/46g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' |
| – | Dak Prescott | QB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 24/70g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Flournoy | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/11g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Brevyn Spann-Ford | TE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Tolbert | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/21g | 22% | — | — |
| – | KaVontae Turpin | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/31g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Luke Schoonmaker | TE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/20g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Malik Davis | RB | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 9% | — | 🏉 27' |

**Kansas City Chiefs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kareem Hunt | RB | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·2·1·1·1) | 2/2g | 2/2g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 45% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Marquise Brown | WR | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Patrick Mahomes | QB | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Rashee Rice | WR | 4 in 5g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.87 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 2' 46' |
| – | Travis Kelce | TE | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' |
| – | Tyquan Thornton | WR | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Isiah Pacheco | RB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| – | JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Worthy | WR | 1 in 9g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Brashard Smith | RB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jared Wiley | TE | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nikko Remigio | WR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Kansas City Chiefs** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Kareem Hunt 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 45% · no TD
- ⚡ Rashee Rice — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 39% · **scored Q1, Q4**
- ⚡ Travis Kelce — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 35% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Chiefs: 2 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Brown

**Dallas Cowboys** (3 picks)
- ⚡ George Pickens 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 50% · no TD
- ⚡ Javonte Williams 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 50% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ CeeDee Lamb 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 41% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Cowboys: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Davis

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dallas Cowboys 1493 · Kansas City Chiefs 1643 · ELO difference: 150 in favour of Kansas City Chiefs

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Dallas Cowboys | Kansas City Chiefs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 56 | 69 | Kansas City Chiefs +13 |
| Receiving Corps | 58 | 67 | Kansas City Chiefs +9 |
| Backfield | 50 | 56 | Kansas City Chiefs +6 |
| Pass Rush | 56 | 51 | Dallas Cowboys +5 |
| Secondary | 56 | 49 | Dallas Cowboys +7 |
| Special Teams | 64 | 65 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — Kansas City Chiefs predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 57 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-27 21:30 UTC (latest tip update)