# Cleveland Browns v San Francisco 49ers — NFL Week 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cleveland Browns 8 – 26 San Francisco 49ers

_San Francisco 49ers strike gold against Cleveland Browns._

Half time: 8 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cleveland Browns 30% / San Francisco 49ers 70% · FirstEnergy Stadium · Mon, 01 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Cleveland Browns: Fannin (30') · San Francisco 49ers: Christian McCaffrey (7' Tipped ⚡), Brock Purdy (44'), Jauan Jennings (49' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 70% | Won |
| Cleveland Browns | 30% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.4 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cleveland Browns vs San Francisco 49ers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 13, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Cleveland Browns 8–26 San Francisco 49ers in NFL Week 13 at FirstEnergy Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

San Francisco led before most people had found their seats, and Cleveland spent the rest of the afternoon chasing a gap that only widened. Christian McCaffrey put the 49ers up 6-0 with 8:15 still on the clock in the first quarter, and the Browns never got their nose in front from there. The pressure built in stages rather than all at once, and it took until the fourth quarter for the margin to turn genuinely safe.

Cleveland did have their moment. Harold Fannin Jr. hauled in the Browns' only touchdown with 47 seconds left in the second quarter, cutting the margin to 6-7 and setting up an 8-10 scoreline at the main break. That's a game still alive, one score either way. It just didn't stay that way for long.

Brock Purdy broke it back open with 1:33 left in the third quarter, stretching it to 8-16, and Jauan Jennings finished the job with 11:09 still to play in the fourth, making it 8-23 before Cleveland had scored again. From there the result was academic. Final score: San Francisco 49ers 26, Cleveland Browns 8, an 18-point gap that looked far more comfortable by the end than the first half ever suggested it would.

Oddly enough, Cleveland won the yardage battle, 287 total yards to 259. That tells you the final margin wasn't about who moved the ball better through four quarters. It was about who protected it and who got off the field when it mattered. San Francisco's defence sacked Shedeur Sanders

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 7 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cleveland Browns | Stat | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| **287** | Total Yards | 259 |
| 149 | Passing Yards | **168** |
| **138** | Rushing Yards | 91 |
| 22 | First Downs | **29** |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| -11.9 | Offensive EPA | **-0.2** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted San Francisco 49ers to win at 70% probability. The predicted margin of 8.4 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Allen officiated this match (190 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 11 points below Brad Allen's career average of 45. San Francisco 49ers's victory aligns with Brad Allen's historical trend, San Francisco 49ers have a 50% win rate under this referee. Despite Brad Allen's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side San Francisco 49ers prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** San Francisco 49ers to win @ $1.40 (edge -1.5%) — model probability 69.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** San Francisco 49ers -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 35.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: San Francisco 49ers by 8 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on San Francisco 49ers here: 70% to see off Cleveland Browns. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: San Francisco 49ers sit 156 ELO points clear, 1538 to 1382. Form leans San Francisco 49ers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Cleveland Browns.

San Francisco 49ers own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has San Francisco 49ers by 8.4, with the two sides combining for about 41. San Francisco 49ers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Cleveland Browns have won 4 of the last 7 between these two, and San Francisco 49ers took the most recent meeting 26-8 in 2025 Week 13.

Cleveland Browns went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 16.4 points for and 22.3 against.

San Francisco 49ers went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-2 away, averaging 25.7 points for and 21.8 against.

Shedeur Sanders starts under centre for Cleveland Browns, Brock Purdy for San Francisco 49ers, with Kevin Stefanski and Kyle Shanahan calling the shots.

The market has San Francisco 49ers favourites, Cleveland Browns $3.05 and San Francisco 49ers $1.40, with the spread at San Francisco 49ers -5.5 and the total at 35.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Cleveland Browns 4 · San Francisco 49ers 3 |
| Last meeting | San Francisco 49ers 26-8 (2025) |
| Cleveland Browns 2025 so far | 5-12 · 3-6 home |
| Cleveland Browns scoring | 16.4 for · 22.3 against |
| San Francisco 49ers 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-2 away |
| San Francisco 49ers scoring | 25.7 for · 21.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Shedeur Sanders · Brock Purdy |
| Head coaches | Kevin Stefanski · Kyle Shanahan |
| Market | Cleveland Browns $3.05 · San Francisco 49ers $1.40 |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -5.5 · total 35.5 |
| Referee | Brad Allen |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours San Francisco 49ers

**Brad Allen** — 190 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Brad Allen | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 4W–11L | 27% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 5W–5L | 50% |

Avg total: 45.0 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Allen officiates, San Francisco 49ers have won 5 of 10 games (50%), significantly stronger than Cleveland Browns's 4 from 15 (27%). Home teams win 56% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cleveland Browns | Stat | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 20.8pts | Avg Score | 27.2pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.6pts |
| 1.2pts | Avg Margin | 2.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 6.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | W7 W · W8 L · W10 L · W11 L · W12 W | 20.8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | W8 L · W9 W · W10 L · W11 W · W12 W | 27.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — San Francisco 49ers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W13 | Cleveland Browns | 8 – 26 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2023 | W6 | Cleveland Browns | 19 – 17 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2019 | W5 | San Francisco 49ers | 31 – 3 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2015 | W14 | Cleveland Browns | 24 – 10 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2011 | W8 | San Francisco 49ers | 20 – 10 | Cleveland Browns |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at FirstEnergy Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cleveland Browns** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Quinshon Judkins | RB | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·0·3·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 4/4g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.10 AI 48% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.70 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | David Njoku | TE | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 13/54g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Cedric Tillman | WR | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/15g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Sampson | RB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 19% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.00 AI 24% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Jerry Jeudy | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/13g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Blake Whiteheart | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Dillon Gabriel | QB | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Gage Larvadain | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Bond | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jerome Ford | RB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/25g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Malachi Corley | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Shedeur Sanders | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**San Francisco 49ers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 12 in 12g | 11/10g (0·1·1·1·2·0·2·0·3·1) | 4/3g | 3/2g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.84 AI 57% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.50 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' |
| – | George Kittle | TE | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jauan Jennings | WR | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.10 AI 25% ✓ Scored | 🏉 49' |
| – | Brian Robinson | RB | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Luke Farrell | TE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Juszczyk | RB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Brock Purdy | QB | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Demarcus Robinson | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Guerendo | RB | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Kendrick Bourne | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mac Jones | QB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ricky Pearsall | WR | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.40 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $16.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Skyy Moore | WR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**San Francisco 49ers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Christian McCaffrey 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 2 pass) · model 57% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ George Kittle 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Ricky Pearsall 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Jauan Jennings — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 25% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the 49ers: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: B.Purdy

**Cleveland Browns** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Quinshon Judkins 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 48% · no TD
- ⚡ Harold Fannin Jr. — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 24% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Browns: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cleveland Browns 1382 · San Francisco 49ers 1538 · ELO difference: 155 in favour of San Francisco 49ers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Cleveland Browns | San Francisco 49ers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 33 | 63 | San Francisco 49ers +30 |
| Receiving Corps | 47 | 68 | San Francisco 49ers +21 |
| Backfield | 46 | 65 | San Francisco 49ers +19 |
| Pass Rush | 68 | 45 | Cleveland Browns +23 |
| Secondary | 54 | 58 | Even |
| Special Teams | 58 | 48 | Cleveland Browns +10 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Cleveland Browns |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — San Francisco 49ers predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-30 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)