# Carolina Panthers v Los Angeles Rams — NFL Week 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carolina Panthers 31 – 28 Los Angeles Rams

_Carolina Panthers fight back to pounce on Los Angeles Rams._

Half time: 17 – 21 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carolina Panthers 41% / Los Angeles Rams 59% · Bank of America Stadium · Mon, 01 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Carolina Panthers: Chuba Hubbard (8' Tipped ⚡), Mike Jackson (14'), Jalen Coker (37'), Tetairoa McMillan (54' Tipped ⚡) · Los Angeles Rams: Davante Adams (3' Tipped ⚡), Davante Adams (18' Tipped ⚡), Blake Corum (28'), Kyren Williams (50' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 59% | Lost |
| Carolina Panthers | 41% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.1 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Rams Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 13, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 Dec 2025, 05:00 am_

Carolina Panthers 31–28 Los Angeles Rams in NFL Week 13 at Bank of America Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Carolina Panthers beat Los Angeles Rams 31-28 at Bank of America Stadium, a one-score game from start to finish. Look at the yardage sheet, though, and it reads like the Rams won. Los Angeles put up 395 total yards to Carolina's 370, picked up 33 first downs to the Panthers' 25, and still walked out with the loss. That gap is the story here.

The number that actually decided it: three turnovers for the Rams, none for Carolina. Add in Carolina's offensive EPA of 14 against the Rams' 7, seven points clear on a per-snap basis, and you've got a team that did less with the ball but did it far more cleanly. Yards without security are just yards.

The game was tight throughout, never more than a score apart for long. Davante Adams opened it for the Rams inside the first two minutes, Chuba Hubbard answered, and Carolina had the lead by the end of the first quarter, 14-7. Los Angeles clawed it back before halftime through Adams again and a Blake Corum score, taking a 21-17 lead into the break. Carolina went back in front in the third on a Jalen Coker touchdown, Kyren Williams put the Rams up again early in the fourth, and Tetairoa McMillan's score with 6:43 left settled it at 31-28. Four lead changes, nobody able to pull away.

Carolina did it on the ground. Hubbard alone ran for 83 yards on 17 carries, part of a 164-yard rushing total that made up 42% of the Panthers' offence. Bryce Young was efficient rather than spectacular, 15 of 20 for 206 and three touchdowns through the air. Compare that to Matthew Stafford's 18 of 28 for 243 and two touchdowns, but also two interceptions, and you can see where the Rams' turnover count came from.

Xavier Smith was the game's top receiving option, three catches for 82 yards, a big-play number that didn't translate into enough Rams points given the giveaways elsewhere.

None of this lines up with the pre-match picture. The Rams came in rated well ahead across the board, quarterback 78 to 45, secondary 76 to 44, special teams 62 to 47, and arrived off a perfect five-game run averaging 33.2 points a game. Carolina had won two of their last five and were shipping 23.4 a game on defence. The model had the Rams as 59% favourites and pegged Carolina to somehow still edge it by 1.1 points, a strange one to reconcile on paper but not far off what happened. The margin landed at 3, close enough to call that read sharp.

The total is where the model missed. It had this at 44 combined points; the teams put up 59 between them. Nobody predicted a shootout of this size, and the turnover count was the difference between it being a Rams win and a Carolina one. Wins and misses, all of it, but the margin call held up better than most would have guessed at kickoff.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | 14 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 7 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carolina Panthers | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 370 | Total Yards | **395** |
| 206 | Passing Yards | **243** |
| **164** | Rushing Yards | 152 |
| 25 | First Downs | **33** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 3 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **14** | Offensive EPA | 7 |

**Model Report Card**

Carolina Panthers defied the model's 59% prediction for Los Angeles Rams, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Carolina Panthers by 1.1 vs the actual margin of 3 points. The game's 59 points came in 16 points higher than the predicted 44. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Scott Novak officiated this match (111 career games). The combined score of 59 points was 14 points above Scott Novak's career average of 45.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.17 (edge -26.1%) — model probability 59.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Carolina Panthers +10 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carolina Panthers by 1 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Los Angeles Rams are the call at 59%, but Carolina Panthers stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Rams sit 281 ELO points clear, 1671 to 1390. Form leans Los Angeles Rams' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Carolina Panthers.

Los Angeles Rams own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Carolina Panthers by 1.1, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Los Angeles Rams, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Carolina Panthers have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Los Angeles Rams took the most recent meeting 34-31 in 2025 the Wild Card round.

Carolina Panthers went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 18.3 points for and 22.4 against.

Los Angeles Rams went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 30.5 points for and 20.4 against.

Bryce Young starts under centre for Carolina Panthers, Matthew Stafford for Los Angeles Rams, with Dave Canales and Sean McVay calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Rams favourites, Carolina Panthers $5.25 and Los Angeles Rams $1.17, with the spread at Los Angeles Rams -10 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Carolina Panthers 7 · Los Angeles Rams 5 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Rams 34-31 (2025) |
| Carolina Panthers 2025 so far | 8-9 · 5-3 home |
| Carolina Panthers scoring | 18.3 for · 22.4 against |
| Los Angeles Rams 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-4 away |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 30.5 for · 20.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Bryce Young · Matthew Stafford |
| Head coaches | Dave Canales · Sean McVay |
| Market | Carolina Panthers $5.25 · Los Angeles Rams $1.17 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -10 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Scott Novak |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Scott Novak** — 111 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Scott Novak | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | 0W–3L | 0% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0W–3L | 0% |

Avg total: 45.2 pts · Home win %: 46% · Home bias: Leans away

Both sides have a similar record under Scott Novak, Carolina Panthers 0W–3L (0%) and Los Angeles Rams 0W–3L (0%). Small sample (3 games for Carolina Panthers).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Carolina Panthers | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 14.2pts | Avg Score | 33.2pts |
| 23.4pts | Avg Conceded | 13.8pts |
| -9.2pts | Avg Margin | 19.4pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | W8 L · W9 W · W10 L · W11 W · W12 L | 14.2 |
| Los Angeles Rams | W7 W · W9 W · W10 W · W11 W · W12 W | 33.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Rams lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | WC | Carolina Panthers | 31 – 34 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2025 | W13 | Carolina Panthers | 31 – 28 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2022 | W6 | Los Angeles Rams | 24 – 10 | Carolina Panthers |
| 2019 | W1 | Carolina Panthers | 27 – 30 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2016 | W9 | Los Angeles Rams | 10 – 13 | Carolina Panthers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Bank of America Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carolina Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Rico Dowdle | RB | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/7g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 44% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 54' |
| – | Chuba Hubbard | RB | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 11/34g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $7.50 AI 21% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' |
| – | Xavier Legette | WR | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/10g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Evans | TE | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Bryce Young | QB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/18g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tommy Tremble | TE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/32g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Brycen Tremayne | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ja'Tavion Sanders | TE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Coker | WR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 11% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Trevor Etienne | RB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 12 in 11g | 12/10g (1·1·1·0·0·3·2·1·1·2) | 1/4g | 1/1g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.78 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.80 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 18' |
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 9 in 11g | 8/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·1·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.89 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.12 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Davis Allen | TE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Konata Mumpfield | WR | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Terrance Ferguson | TE | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Whittington | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ronnie Rivers | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Rams** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 47% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Davante Adams 🎯 — 9 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 9 pass) · model 39% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- Rest of the Rams: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: B.Corum

**Carolina Panthers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Rico Dowdle 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 44% · no TD
- ⚡ Tetairoa McMillan — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 32% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Chuba Hubbard — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 21% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Panthers: 1 TD across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Jackson, J.Coker

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Carolina Panthers 1390 · Los Angeles Rams 1671 · ELO difference: 281 in favour of Los Angeles Rams

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Carolina Panthers | Los Angeles Rams | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 45 | 78 | Los Angeles Rams +33 |
| Receiving Corps | 52 | 62 | Los Angeles Rams +10 |
| Backfield | 53 | 57 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 50 | Even |
| Secondary | 44 | 76 | Los Angeles Rams +32 |
| Special Teams | 47 | 62 | Los Angeles Rams +15 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Los Angeles Rams predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-30 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)