# Baltimore Ravens v Cincinnati Bengals — NFL Week 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Baltimore Ravens 14 – 32 Cincinnati Bengals

_Cincinnati Bengals claw past Baltimore Ravens._

Half time: 7 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Baltimore Ravens 82% / Cincinnati Bengals 18% · M&T Bank Stadium · Fri, 28 Nov, 12:20 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry (9' Tipped ⚡), Keaton Mitchell (41') · Cincinnati Bengals: Tanner Hudson (38'), Andrei Iosivas (45')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 82% | Lost |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 18% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.8 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 13, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Nov 2025, 12:20 pm_

Baltimore Ravens 14–32 Cincinnati Bengals in NFL Week 13 at M&T Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Cincinnati led 12-7 at the break, the kind of scoreline that still has the away side feeling comfortable without being safe. Baltimore's only points to that stage had come from Derrick Henry's touchdown in the first quarter, a score that briefly put the Ravens up 6-3 before Cincinnati ground back in front by half-time. The second half is where the game actually got decided.

The third quarter carried the load. Tanner Hudson scored with 7:28 left in the period to make it 18-7, Keaton Mitchell hit back for Baltimore to bring it to 13-19, and then Andrei Iosivas scored again with 20 seconds left in the quarter to push Cincinnati out to 25-14. Three touchdowns inside one quarter, and by the time it ended Cincinnati led 26-14. The Bengals added the rest in the fourth to close it out 32-14.

Turnovers explain plenty of it. Baltimore gave the ball away five times, Cincinnati only once, and that gap is hard to make up anywhere else on the stat sheet. The efficiency numbers back it up too: Cincinnati's offence ran at -0.2 expected points per play, Baltimore's at -7.4. That's not a close game hiding behind the scoreboard, that's one side handing the other extra chances and paying full price for it.

Through the air, Joe Burrow went 24-of-46 for 261 yards and two touchdowns, with Ja'Marr Chase the clear top target on 7 catches for 110 yards. Lamar Jackson threw for 246 yards on 17-of-32 but was picked off once, and a completion rate that far under his attempts usually means an offence chasing the game rather than controlling it.

On the ground, Chase Brown led all rushers with 78 yards on 15 carries, part of a Cincinnati attack that didn't need to lean on one player to do the damage. Baltimore still managed 123 rushing yards to Cincinnati's 128, close enough, but it came alongside touchdowns from Henry and Mitchell rather than sustained drives.

The total yardage gap was tight, 389 to 369 in Cincinnati's favour, but first downs weren't: the Bengals picked up 30 to Baltimore's 22, and that's where the extra possessions from the turnovers actually turned into points. Cincinnati also got two sacks to Baltimore's one, adding pressure of its own to a night already tilted by the giveaways.

None of this lines up with

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | 9 | 14 | 6 | 32 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | Cincinnati Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| 369 | Total Yards | **389** |
| 246 | Passing Yards | **261** |
| 123 | Rushing Yards | **128** |
| 22 | First Downs | **30** |
| 5 | Turnovers | **1** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| -7.4 | Offensive EPA | **-0.2** |

**Model Report Card**

Cincinnati Bengals defied the model's 82% prediction for Baltimore Ravens, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.8 but the actual margin was 18 points. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 46, within 4 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 52.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Craig Wrolstad officiated this match (194 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Craig Wrolstad's career average of 46. Cincinnati Bengals bucked the trend, Baltimore Ravens historically win 78% of games under Craig Wrolstad, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.27 (edge +3.5%) — model probability 82.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cincinnati Bengals +7 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cincinnati Bengals by 2 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Baltimore Ravens here: 82% to see off Cincinnati Bengals. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Baltimore Ravens sit 188 ELO points clear, 1599 to 1411. Form leans Baltimore Ravens' way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Cincinnati Bengals.

Baltimore Ravens own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Secondary. The margin model has Cincinnati Bengals by 1.8, with the two sides combining for about 50. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Baltimore Ravens to win, not to win big.

Baltimore Ravens have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Baltimore Ravens took the most recent meeting 24-0 in 2025 Week 15.

Baltimore Ravens went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 24.9 points for and 23.4 against.

Cincinnati Bengals went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-5 away, averaging 24.4 points for and 28.9 against.

Lamar Jackson starts under centre for Baltimore Ravens, Joe Burrow for Cincinnati Bengals, with John Harbaugh and Zac Taylor calling the shots.

The market has Baltimore Ravens favourites, Baltimore Ravens $1.27 and Cincinnati Bengals $3.95, with the spread at Baltimore Ravens -7 and the total at 52.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Baltimore Ravens 7 · Cincinnati Bengals 5 |
| Last meeting | Baltimore Ravens 24-0 (2025) |
| Baltimore Ravens 2025 so far | 8-9 · 3-6 home |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 24.9 for · 23.4 against |
| Cincinnati Bengals 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-5 away |
| Cincinnati Bengals scoring | 24.4 for · 28.9 against |
| Quarterbacks | Lamar Jackson · Joe Burrow |
| Head coaches | John Harbaugh · Zac Taylor |
| Market | Baltimore Ravens $1.27 · Cincinnati Bengals $3.95 |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -7 · total 52.5 |
| Referee | Craig Wrolstad |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Baltimore Ravens

**Craig Wrolstad** — 194 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Craig Wrolstad | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 7W–2L | 78% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6W–4L | 60% |

Avg total: 45.6 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

When Craig Wrolstad officiates, Baltimore Ravens have won 7 of 9 games (78%), significantly stronger than Cincinnati Bengals's 6 from 10 (60%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | Cincinnati Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 26.2pts | Avg Score | 29.0pts |
| 13.4pts | Avg Conceded | 35.4pts |
| 12.8pts | Avg Margin | -6.4pts |
| 4.0d | Rest Days | 4.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | W8 W · W9 W · W10 W · W11 W · W12 W | 26.2 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | W7 W · W8 L · W9 L · W11 L · W12 L | 29.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Baltimore Ravens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W15 | Cincinnati Bengals | 0 – 24 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2025 | W13 | Baltimore Ravens | 14 – 32 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2024 | W10 | Baltimore Ravens | 35 – 34 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2024 | W5 | Cincinnati Bengals | 38 – 41 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2023 | W11 | Baltimore Ravens | 34 – 20 | Cincinnati Bengals |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at M&T Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Baltimore Ravens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 9 in 11g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·2) | 5/7g | 19/17g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.44 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.90 AI 16% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 8/14g | 28/62g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Charlie Kolar | TE | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/17g | 15% | — | — |
| – | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/8g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Devontez Walker | WR | 2 in 5g | 3/8g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Rashod Bateman | WR | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 7/33g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Lamar Jackson | QB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 20/59g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 21% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 1 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/24g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Isaiah Likely | TE | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 8/29g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Keaton Mitchell | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/11g | 7% | — | 🏉 41' |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |

**Cincinnati Bengals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 9/9g | 5/4g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.93 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Chase Brown | RB | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/1g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Noah Fant | TE | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Tinsley | WR | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Andrei Iosivas | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 21% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Charlie Jones | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Drew Sample | TE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Samaje Perine | RB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 1/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tanner Hudson | TE | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 8% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Gary Brightwell | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Joe Burrow | QB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Mike Gesicki | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/2g | 10% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Cincinnati Bengals** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Chase Brown 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Ja'Marr Chase 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- Rest of the Bengals: 13 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Hudson, A.Iosivas

**Baltimore Ravens** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 55% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Zay Flowers 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Mark Andrews — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- ⚡ Lamar Jackson — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 21% · no TD
- Rest of the Ravens: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Mitchell

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Baltimore Ravens 1599 · Cincinnati Bengals 1411 · ELO difference: 188 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati Bengals | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 45 | 64 | Cincinnati Bengals +19 |
| Receiving Corps | 54 | 55 | Even |
| Backfield | 58 | 60 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 57 | 52 | Baltimore Ravens +5 |
| Secondary | 64 | 54 | Baltimore Ravens +10 |
| Special Teams | 75 | 71 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 82%** — Baltimore Ravens predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-28 01:20 UTC (latest tip update)