# Tennessee Titans v Seattle Seahawks — NFL Week 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Tennessee Titans 24 – 30 Seattle Seahawks

_Seattle Seahawks hold off a fast-finishing Tennessee Titans._

Half time: 3 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Tennessee Titans 21% / Seattle Seahawks 79% · Nissan Stadium · Mon, 24 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Tennessee Titans: Chimere Dike (35'), Cam Ward (44'), Chimere Dike (60') · Seattle Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (19' Tipped ⚡), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (32' Tipped ⚡), Zach Charbonnet (39' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 79% | Won |
| Tennessee Titans | 21% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.7 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Tennessee Titans vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 12, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

Tennessee Titans 24–30 Seattle Seahawks in NFL Week 12 at Nissan Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time in Nashville had Seattle Seahawks up 16-3, and on the process numbers that gap looked understated rather than overstated. The Titans finished the night with more first downs, 29 to 26, and more passing yards, 256 to 244. None of it mattered much, because Seattle won 30-24 and did it with the kind of efficiency that doesn't show up on a yardage sheet.

The story of the second half wasn't a Titans collapse, it was a Titans revival that started too late. Jaxon Smith-Njigba opened the third quarter with his second touchdown to push it to 22-3, about as bleak as the scoreboard got all night. From there Tennessee actually played the better half: Chimere Dike scored to make it 9-23, Cam Ward hit paydirt to cut it to 16-30 by the end of the third, and Dike's second touchdown with 47 seconds left in the fourth got the margin down to six. Zach Charbonnet's touchdown in between, though, kept Seattle's cushion just wide enough that Tennessee's rally always needed one score more than it had time for.

The gap that decided this game wasn't yardage, it was expected points added. Seattle finished at plus-11.8 offensive EPA, Tennessee at minus-0.4. That's the difference between a team that turned its possessions into points and one that moved the chains without moving the scoreboard, and it lines up with the pre-match read: Seattle came in rated 1623 to Tennessee's 1262, with the model backing the Seahawks by 8.7 points on a projected total of 43. They won by six on an actual total of 54, so the shootout ran hotter than forecast but the winner and the shape of the margin were exactly what the numbers said to expect.

Seattle's pass rush did its job without needing much help elsewhere, four sacks to Tennessee's one, even though the pre-match ratings had Tennessee's p

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 24 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 13 | 14 | 0 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Tennessee Titans | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 320 | Total Yards | **358** |
| **256** | Passing Yards | 244 |
| 64 | Rushing Yards | **114** |
| **29** | First Downs | 26 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **4** |
| -0.4 | Offensive EPA | **11.8** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Seattle Seahawks to win at 79% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Seattle Seahawks by 8.7 vs the actual margin of 6 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Ron Torbert officiated this match (150 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 8 points above Ron Torbert's career average of 46. Seattle Seahawks bucked the trend, Tennessee Titans historically win 43% of games under Ron Torbert, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Ron Torbert's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Seattle Seahawks prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.11 (edge -11.7%) — model probability 78.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Tennessee Titans +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 9 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Seattle Seahawks here: 79% to see off Tennessee Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Seattle Seahawks sit 361 ELO points clear, 1623 to 1262. Form leans Seattle Seahawks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 0 for Tennessee Titans.

Seattle Seahawks own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Seattle Seahawks by 8.7, with the two sides combining for about 43. Seattle Seahawks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Seattle Seahawks have won 4 of the last 7 between these two, and Seattle Seahawks took the most recent meeting 30-24 in 2025 Week 12.

Tennessee Titans went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-8 at home, averaging 16.7 points for and 28.1 against.

Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 away, averaging 28.4 points for and 17.2 against.

Cam Ward starts under centre for Tennessee Titans, Sam Darnold for Seattle Seahawks, with Brian Callahan and Mike Macdonald calling the shots.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, Tennessee Titans $7.25 and Seattle Seahawks $1.11, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -12.5 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Tennessee Titans 3 · Seattle Seahawks 4 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 30-24 (2025) |
| Tennessee Titans 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-8 home |
| Tennessee Titans scoring | 16.7 for · 28.1 against |
| Seattle Seahawks 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 away |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 28.4 for · 17.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Cam Ward · Sam Darnold |
| Head coaches | Brian Callahan · Mike Macdonald |
| Market | Tennessee Titans $7.25 · Seattle Seahawks $1.11 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -12.5 · total 41.5 |
| Referee | Ron Torbert |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Tennessee Titans

**Ron Torbert** — 150 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under Ron Torbert | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | 3W–4L | 43% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3W–5L | 38% |

Avg total: 46.2 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

Tennessee Titans hold a 5-point edge: 3W–4L (43%) vs Seattle Seahawks's 3W–5L (38%). Home teams win 56% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (7 games for Tennessee Titans).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Tennessee Titans | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 14.0pts | Avg Score | 29.6pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 17.6pts |
| -12.4pts | Avg Margin | 12.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | W6 L · W7 L · W8 L · W9 L · W11 L | 14.0 |
| Seattle Seahawks | W6 W · W7 W · W9 W · W10 W · W11 L | 29.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W12 | Tennessee Titans | 24 – 30 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2023 | W16 | Tennessee Titans | 17 – 20 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2021 | W2 | Seattle Seahawks | 30 – 33 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2017 | W3 | Tennessee Titans | 33 – 27 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2013 | W6 | Seattle Seahawks | 20 – 13 | Tennessee Titans |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Nissan Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Tennessee Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chimere Dike | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 20% | — | 🏉 35' 60' |
| – | Tony Pollard | RB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/13g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 27% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Gunnar Helm | TE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tyjae Spears | RB | 1 in 6g | 5/10g (0·2·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/17g | 20% | 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Van Jefferson | WR | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 1/6g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Cam Ward | QB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Chig Okonkwo | TE | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/27g | 6% | — | — |
| – | James Proche | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Julius Chestnut | RB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kalel Mullings | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Mason Kinsey | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Restrepo | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Zach Charbonnet | RB | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' |
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.12 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 19' 32' |
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Cody White | WR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Arroyo | TE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Brady Russell | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bobo | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 4% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Seattle Seahawks** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 44% · **scored Q2, Q3**
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ Zach Charbonnet — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 31% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Rashid Shaheed — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 26% · no TD
- ⚡ AJ Barner — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- Rest of the Seahawks: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

**Tennessee Titans** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Tony Pollard 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 27% · no TD
- Rest of the Titans: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Dike, C.Ward

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Tennessee Titans 1262 · Seattle Seahawks 1623 · ELO difference: 361 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Tennessee Titans | Seattle Seahawks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 29 | 47 | Seattle Seahawks +18 |
| Receiving Corps | 51 | 54 | Even |
| Backfield | 46 | 52 | Seattle Seahawks +6 |
| Pass Rush | 67 | 58 | Tennessee Titans +9 |
| Secondary | 50 | 58 | Seattle Seahawks +8 |
| Special Teams | 59 | 78 | Seattle Seahawks +19 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Tennessee Titans |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 79%** — Seattle Seahawks predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-23 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)