# New Orleans Saints v Atlanta Falcons — NFL Week 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New Orleans Saints 10 – 24 Atlanta Falcons

_Atlanta Falcons swoop on New Orleans Saints._

Half time: 7 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New Orleans Saints 47% / Atlanta Falcons 53% · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Mon, 24 Nov, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New Orleans Saints: Justin Reid (24') · Atlanta Falcons: David Sills (19'), Darnell Mooney (49')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 53% | Won |
| New Orleans Saints | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.2 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 12, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Nov 2025, 08:25 am_

New Orleans Saints 10–24 Atlanta Falcons in NFL Week 12 at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Minus 21.4 to minus 5.5. That's the expected points gap on offence between New Orleans and Atlanta, and it explains how a team that lost the yardage battle still walked out of the Superdome 24-10 winners. New Orleans moved the ball, 322 yards to Atlanta's 320, but moving it and doing something with it are different jobs, and the Falcons were 15.9 expected points better at the second one.

The Saints never found the end zone, full stop. Their only points came off a J. Reid score in the second quarter that pulled them to within four, 6-10, with 6:53 left before half. By then Atlanta had already opened the scoring with a field goal in the first and a David Sills touchdown early in the second. The half ended 16-7, and New Orleans spent the whole third quarter going nowhere, the score frozen until Darnell Mooney's touchdown with 11:12 left in the fourth stretched it to 22-10 and put the game out of reach. A late New Orleans score made it 24-10, but the game had already been decided.

Turnovers did their usual damage. New Orleans coughed it up twice to Atlanta's one, and against a side that only needed to be efficient, not spectacular, that gap mattered. Atlanta's pass rush also had the better night, five sacks to three, harassing Tyler Shough into a stat line that looked busy but wasn't clean: 30 of 43 for 243 yards and a pick. Kirk Cousins was tidier by comparison, 16 of 23 for 199 yards with two touchdowns and a pick of his own, the kind of efficient outing that doesn't need volume to matter.

Bijan Robinson did the heavy lifting on the ground, 70 yards on just 14 carries, and that number lines up with what was expected walking in. Atlanta's backfield was rated 58 to New Orleans's 37 before kickoff, easily the biggest positional gap on the sheet, and Robinson made that edge count. Darnell Mooney was the standout target, three catches for 74 yards and the touchdown that put the game to bed, doing damage against a Saints secondary rated 51 to Atlanta's 59.

New Orleans have not lacked for scoreboard heartbreak this season, an average margin of minus 10.4 across their last five heading in, and this one fit the pattern even with the extra rest, 14 days to Atlanta's 7. They out-threw Atlanta through the air, 243 to 199, and out-gained them overall, but a shaky backfield, a leaky pass rush and two turnovers undid the yardage.

Alphr's model had Atlanta as 53% favourites going in and called the winner correctly. Where it fell short was the margin: a predicted 1.2-point game turned into a 14-point one. The ratings gap, 1394 to 1361, said this would be close. Atlanta's efficiency said otherwise.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New Orleans Saints | Stat | Atlanta Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| **322** | Total Yards | 320 |
| **243** | Passing Yards | 199 |
| 79 | Rushing Yards | **121** |
| **30** | First Downs | 20 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **1** |
| 3 | Sacks Made | **5** |
| -21.4 | Offensive EPA | **-5.5** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Atlanta Falcons to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.2 but the actual margin was 14 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Rogers officiated this match (92 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 12 points below Brad Rogers's career average of 46. Despite Brad Rogers's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side Atlanta Falcons prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Atlanta Falcons to win @ $2.02 (edge +3.8%) — model probability 53.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Atlanta Falcons +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Atlanta Falcons by 1 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons. The model can't split them, landing on Atlanta Falcons at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Atlanta Falcons sit 33 ELO points clear, 1394 to 1361. Form leans New Orleans Saints' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Atlanta Falcons.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Atlanta Falcons by 1.2, with the two sides combining for about 44. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

New Orleans Saints have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Atlanta Falcons took the most recent meeting 19-17 in 2025 Week 18.

New Orleans Saints went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-5 at home, averaging 18.0 points for and 22.5 against.

Atlanta Falcons went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 20.8 points for and 23.6 against.

Tyler Shough starts under centre for New Orleans Saints, Kirk Cousins for Atlanta Falcons, with Kellen Moore and Raheem Morris calling the shots.

New Orleans Saints come in fresher, 14 days between games against 7.

The market has New Orleans Saints favourites, New Orleans Saints $1.82 and Atlanta Falcons $2.02, with the spread at New Orleans Saints -1.5 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | New Orleans Saints 7 · Atlanta Falcons 5 |
| Last meeting | Atlanta Falcons 19-17 (2025) |
| New Orleans Saints 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-5 home |
| New Orleans Saints scoring | 18.0 for · 22.5 against |
| Atlanta Falcons 2025 so far | 8-9 · 4-5 away |
| Atlanta Falcons scoring | 20.8 for · 23.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Tyler Shough · Kirk Cousins |
| Head coaches | Kellen Moore · Raheem Morris |
| Rest | New Orleans Saints 14d · Atlanta Falcons 7d |
| Market | New Orleans Saints $1.82 · Atlanta Falcons $2.02 |
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -1.5 · total 41.5 |
| Referee | Brad Rogers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Brad Rogers** — 92 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Brad Rogers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 2W–7L | 22% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 1W–4L | 20% |

Avg total: 45.9 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Brad Rogers, New Orleans Saints 2W–7L (22%) and Atlanta Falcons 1W–4L (20%). Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (5 games for Atlanta Falcons).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New Orleans Saints | Stat | Atlanta Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 12.6pts | Avg Score | 19.0pts |
| 23.0pts | Avg Conceded | 27.8pts |
| -10.4pts | Avg Margin | -8.8pts |
| 14.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | W6 L · W7 L · W8 L · W9 L · W10 W | 12.6 |
| Atlanta Falcons | W7 L · W8 L · W9 L · W10 L · W11 L | 19.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Atlanta Falcons lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Atlanta Falcons | 19 – 17 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2025 | W12 | New Orleans Saints | 10 – 24 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2024 | W10 | New Orleans Saints | 20 – 17 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2024 | W4 | Atlanta Falcons | 26 – 24 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2023 | W18 | New Orleans Saints | 48 – 17 | Atlanta Falcons |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New Orleans Saints** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chris Olave | WR | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 7/22g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Juwan Johnson | TE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/7g | 10/33g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Alvin Kamara | RB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 47/67g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Devaughn Vele | WR | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jack Stoll | TE | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Taysom Hill | TE | 1 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·3·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 24/55g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Dante Pettis | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Devin Neal | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Foster Moreau | TE | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/18g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Mason Tipton | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Shough | QB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Atlanta Falcons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Tyler Allgeier | RB | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·2·1) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Bijan Robinson | RB | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 5/4g | 3/2g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.71 AI 46% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $4.90 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kyle Pitts | TE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 22% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Charlie Woerner | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darnell Mooney | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 12% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | David Sills | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Dylan Drummond | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Feleipe Franks | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jamal Agnew | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Kirk Cousins | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Teagan Quitoriano | TE | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Atlanta Falcons** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Bijan Robinson 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 46% · no TD
- ⚡ Kyle Pitts 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Falcons: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Sills, D.Mooney

**New Orleans Saints** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Chris Olave 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Alvin Kamara 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Taysom Hill — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- ⚡ Juwan Johnson — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- Other scorers this game: J.Reid

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Atlanta Falcons hold the ELO advantage (1394 vs 1361), but the market favours New Orleans Saints (@1.82). The model sides with ELO, Atlanta Falcons predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — New Orleans Saints 1361 · Atlanta Falcons 1394 · ELO difference: 33 in favour of Atlanta Falcons

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New Orleans Saints | Atlanta Falcons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 43 | 38 | New Orleans Saints +5 |
| Receiving Corps | 54 | 45 | New Orleans Saints +9 |
| Backfield | 37 | 58 | Atlanta Falcons +21 |
| Pass Rush | 48 | 60 | Atlanta Falcons +12 |
| Secondary | 51 | 59 | Atlanta Falcons +8 |
| Special Teams | 53 | 68 | Atlanta Falcons +15 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Atlanta Falcons |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Atlanta Falcons |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | New Orleans Saints |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Atlanta Falcons predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-23 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)