# Los Angeles Rams v Tampa Bay Buccaneers — NFL Week 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Los Angeles Rams 34 – 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

_Los Angeles Rams put Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the sword._

Half time: 31 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Los Angeles Rams 84% / Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16% · SoFi Stadium · Mon, 24 Nov, 12:20 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Los Angeles Rams: Davante Adams (11' Tipped ⚡), Cobie Durant (14'), Colby Parkinson (20'), Davante Adams (27' Tipped ⚡) · Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tez Johnson (25')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 84% | Won |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 16% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.9 predicted → 27 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 12, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Nov 2025, 12:20 pm_

Los Angeles Rams 34–7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFL Week 12 at SoFi Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Minus 28.8. That's Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offensive EPA on the day, and it tells you almost everything before you even glance at the scoreboard. Los Angeles Rams sat at 5.3, a gap of over 34 points in expected value snap for snap, and the final read was 34-7 at SoFi Stadium.

The game was more or less decided by half-time, and the timeline backs that up. Davante Adams opened it up with 4:35 left in the first, Los Angeles Rams were 14-0 by the end of the quarter, and by the 10:50 mark of the second, Colby Parkinson's touchdown had it at 20-0. Tampa Bay Buccaneers finally got on the board through Tez Johnson with just over five minutes left in the half, but Adams answered again before the break to make it 31-7. Nothing happened in the third or fourth quarters beyond a late Los Angeles Rams score, because the game was already over.

The stat sheet just confirms what the EPA number promised. Los Angeles Rams outgained Tampa Bay Buccaneers 343 yards to 226, doubled them up through the air 273 to 103, and piled up 36 first downs to 17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually won the ground game, 123 rushing yards to 70, which is the one column where they showed up. It wasn't nearly enough to matter against a team moving the chains at that rate through the air.

Turnovers and pressure did the rest. Tampa Bay Buccaneers coughed it up twice and never got the ball back to change momentum, while Los Angeles Rams didn't give them anything to work with. Los Angeles Rams' pass rush got home four times to Tampa Bay Buccaneers' one, and with a quarterback rating edge of 71 to 44 coming in, that pressure differential looks less like an upset stat and more like the form chart playing out exactly as billed.

Matthew Stafford went 25-of-35 for 273 yards and 3 touchdowns, tidy work against a defence that couldn't get pressure or takeaways to slow him down. Puka Nacua was his top target with 7 catches for 97 yards, and Kyren Williams led all rushers with 46 yards on 12 carries. Teddy Bridgewater, by contrast, finished 8-of-15 for just 62 yards, a stat line that matches a Tampa Bay Buccaneers offence that never found any rhythm.

None of this should surprise anyone who looked at the form book. Los Angeles Rams came in on a five-game winning streak, averaging 29.8 points scored and just 13 conceded. Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 2-3 in their last five with a middling scoring margin of minus-0.2, and their special teams and secondary ratings were the only positional edges they carried into the match. Neither showed up in a way that mattered once Los Angeles Rams' quarterback and backfield advantages took hold.

Alphr's model had Los Angeles Rams at 84% to win, which was a fair read given the 116-point ELO gap. Where it undersold things was the margin, tipped at 7.9 against an actual gap of 27. Sometimes the model gets the winner right and still doesn't see the rout coming.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 14 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 34 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Los Angeles Rams | Stat | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| **343** | Total Yards | 226 |
| **273** | Passing Yards | 103 |
| 70 | Rushing Yards | **123** |
| **36** | First Downs | 17 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **5.3** | Offensive EPA | -28.8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Los Angeles Rams to win at 84% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.9 but the actual margin was 27 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Clay Martin officiated this match (127 career games). The combined score of 41 points was 5 points below Clay Martin's career average of 46.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.27 (edge +5.2%) — model probability 84.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Rams -7 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 8 · Predicted total: 52

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Los Angeles Rams here: 84% to see off Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Rams sit 115 ELO points clear, 1654 to 1538. Form leans Los Angeles Rams' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Los Angeles Rams own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Los Angeles Rams by 7.9, with the two sides combining for about 52. Los Angeles Rams to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Los Angeles Rams have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Los Angeles Rams took the most recent meeting 34-7 in 2025 Week 12.

Los Angeles Rams went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-1 at home, averaging 30.5 points for and 20.4 against.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 22.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Matthew Stafford starts under centre for Los Angeles Rams, Baker Mayfield for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with Sean McVay and Todd Bowles calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Rams favourites, Los Angeles Rams $1.27 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers $3.95, with the spread at Los Angeles Rams -7 and the total at 49.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Los Angeles Rams 9 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Rams 34-7 (2025) |
| Los Angeles Rams 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-1 home |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 30.5 for · 20.4 against |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025 so far | 8-9 · 4-5 away |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers scoring | 22.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Matthew Stafford · Baker Mayfield |
| Head coaches | Sean McVay · Todd Bowles |
| Market | Los Angeles Rams $1.27 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers $3.95 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -7 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Clay Martin |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Clay Martin** — 127 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Clay Martin | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 6W–1L | 86% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5W–1L | 83% |

Avg total: 46.2 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Clay Martin, Los Angeles Rams 6W–1L (86%) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5W–1L (83%). Small sample (6 games for Tampa Bay Buccaneers).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Rams | Stat | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 29.8pts | Avg Score | 23.4pts |
| 13.0pts | Avg Conceded | 23.6pts |
| 16.8pts | Avg Margin | -0.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | W6 W · W7 W · W9 W · W10 W · W11 W | 29.8 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W6 W · W7 L · W8 W · W10 L · W11 L | 23.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Rams lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W12 | Los Angeles Rams | 34 – 7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2022 | W9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 16 – 13 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2021 | DIV | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 27 – 30 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2021 | W3 | Los Angeles Rams | 34 – 24 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2020 | W11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 24 – 27 | Los Angeles Rams |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·3·2·1·1) | 1/3g | 5/9g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.85 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 11' 27' |
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (1·0·1·0·2·1·0·1·2·1) | 0/0g | 22/24g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.72 AI 54% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 9/18g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.00 AI 44% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Davis Allen | TE | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 1/16g | 18% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/13g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Konata Mumpfield | WR | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Terrance Ferguson | TE | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Whittington | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/37g | 0% | — | — |

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Emeka Egbuka | WR | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (2·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Sean Tucker | RB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Rachaad White | RB | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tez Johnson | WR | 4 in 9g | 4/9g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Baker Mayfield | QB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Kameron Johnson | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sterling Shepard | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Cade Otton | TE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 4/4g | 1/1g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.90 AI 31% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Owen Wright | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Teddy Bridgewater | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Emeka Egbuka 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Chris Godwin Jr. — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Rachaad White — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Buccaneers: 12 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Johnson

**Los Angeles Rams** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 54% · no TD
- ⚡ Davante Adams 🎯 — 7 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 7 pass) · model 46% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 44% · no TD
- Rest of the Rams: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Durant, C.Parkinson

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Rams 1654 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1538 · ELO difference: 115 in favour of Los Angeles Rams

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Rams | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 71 | 44 | Los Angeles Rams +27 |
| Receiving Corps | 61 | 57 | Even |
| Backfield | 69 | 58 | Los Angeles Rams +11 |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 56 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 |
| Secondary | 62 | 68 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 |
| Special Teams | 52 | 60 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 84%** — Los Angeles Rams predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 52 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-24 01:20 UTC (latest tip update)