# Las Vegas Raiders v Cleveland Browns — NFL Week 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Las Vegas Raiders 10 – 24 Cleveland Browns

_Cleveland Browns grind down Las Vegas Raiders._

Half time: 3 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Las Vegas Raiders 45% / Cleveland Browns 55% · Allegiant Stadium · Mon, 24 Nov, 08:05 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Las Vegas Raiders: Ashton Jeanty (55' Tipped ⚡) · Cleveland Browns: Quinshon Judkins (7' Tipped ⚡), Quinshon Judkins (15' Tipped ⚡), Dylan Sampson (52')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 55% | Won |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.3 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Las Vegas Raiders vs Cleveland Browns Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 12, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Nov 2025, 08:05 am_

Las Vegas Raiders 10–24 Cleveland Browns in NFL Week 12 at Allegiant Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Cleveland Browns had this one decided before the Raiders ever got on the board. Quinshon Judkins scored twice inside the opening quarter, at the 8:29 mark and again with 52 seconds left, and Las Vegas went to the second quarter down 14-0. A raid on the ledger like that from a team the model only gave a 55 percent chance to win says plenty about how quickly this got away from the home side.

Final score: Cleveland Browns 24, Las Vegas Raiders 10. The Raiders clawed one back before half-time to make it 3-14, and that's roughly where it sat through the third quarter, nothing added by either side. Cleveland then put it out of reach in the fourth, Dylan Sampson crashing over with 8:29 left to make it 23-3, and though Ashton Jeanty answered for the Raiders soon after, the margin never got interesting again.

Here's the strange part. Las Vegas actually won the yardage battle, 345 to 273, and Geno Smith had a tidy day of it, 30 from 44 for 285 yards and a touchdown. None of it mattered. The Raiders coughed up two turnovers to Cleveland's one, and Cleveland's pass rush lived in their backfield all afternoon, ten sacks to one. Offensive EPA tells the real story: Cleveland at minus-5.7, Las Vegas cratering at minus-28.6. You can pile up yards all day, but if you're taking ten sacks and handing the ball over, it's just yardage on a losing ledger.

Shedeur Sanders didn't need the volume Smith had. Eleven from 20 for 209 yards, a touchdown and a pick, and Cleveland still walked out with the more efficient afternoon by a distance. That gap between the box score and the outcome is exactly what a stat like sacks allowed is meant to capture, and Cleveland's pass rush, rated 64 to Las Vegas's 54 coming in, did precisely the job it was rated to do.

Ashton Jeanty led all rushers with 50 yards on 17 carries and got the Raiders' only touchdown, but a backfield doing its job in isolation wasn't enough when the line in front of it was surrendering ten sacks. Tyler Lockett was the most productive target on the day, four catches for 62 yards, but a good receiving line without protection just means more time watching from the sideline after the whistle.

Cleveland came in as the form team on paper too, even with a modest last-five run of their own, and their special teams edge, 59 to 49, plus the secondary advantage, 54 to 52, gave them the extra half-yard in most contested moments. Las Vegas held a clear quarterback rating edge, 36 to 20, and it showed in the raw numbers, just not on the scoreboard.

Alphr's model backed Cleveland Browns to win and got the side right. The margin was the miss: 5.3 points projected, 14 delivered. Fair to say Judkins made sure of that inside the first quarter, and Las Vegas never found the burst to claw all the way back.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| Cleveland Browns | 14 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | Cleveland Browns |
|---|---|---|
| **345** | Total Yards | 273 |
| **285** | Passing Yards | 209 |
| 60 | Rushing Yards | **64** |
| **32** | First Downs | 12 |
| **1** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **10** |
| -28.6 | Offensive EPA | **-5.7** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Cleveland Browns to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.3 but the actual margin was 14 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Hochuli officiated this match (130 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 11 points below Shawn Hochuli's career average of 45. Cleveland Browns bucked the trend, Las Vegas Raiders historically win 71% of games under Shawn Hochuli, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cleveland Browns to win @ $2.36 (edge +12.6%) — model probability 55.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cleveland Browns +3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 35.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Las Vegas Raiders by 5 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Cleveland Browns are the call at 55%, but Las Vegas Raiders stay live at 45%.

Cleveland Browns own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Recent Form. The margin model has Las Vegas Raiders by 5.3, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Cleveland Browns, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Las Vegas Raiders have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Cleveland Browns took the most recent meeting 24-10 in 2025 Week 12.

Las Vegas Raiders went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 at home, averaging 14.2 points for and 25.4 against.

Cleveland Browns went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 16.4 points for and 22.3 against.

Geno Smith starts under centre for Las Vegas Raiders, Dillon Gabriel for Cleveland Browns, with Pete Carroll and Kevin Stefanski calling the shots.

The market has Las Vegas Raiders favourites, Las Vegas Raiders $1.62 and Cleveland Browns $2.36, with the spread at Las Vegas Raiders -3 and the total at 35.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Las Vegas Raiders 7 · Cleveland Browns 5 |
| Last meeting | Cleveland Browns 24-10 (2025) |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 home |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 14.2 for · 25.4 against |
| Cleveland Browns 2025 so far | 5-12 · 2-6 away |
| Cleveland Browns scoring | 16.4 for · 22.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Geno Smith · Dillon Gabriel |
| Head coaches | Pete Carroll · Kevin Stefanski |
| Market | Las Vegas Raiders $1.62 · Cleveland Browns $2.36 |
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders -3 · total 35.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Hochuli |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Las Vegas Raiders

**Shawn Hochuli** — 130 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Hochuli | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5W–2L | 71% |
| Cleveland Browns | 5W–4L | 56% |

Avg total: 45.2 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

When Shawn Hochuli officiates, Las Vegas Raiders have won 5 of 7 games (71%), significantly stronger than Cleveland Browns's 5 from 9 (56%). Small sample (7 games for Las Vegas Raiders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | Cleveland Browns |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 14.4pts | Avg Score | 17.8pts |
| 22.8pts | Avg Conceded | 22.2pts |
| -8.4pts | Avg Margin | -4.4pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | W6 W · W7 L · W9 L · W10 L · W11 L | 14.4 |
| Cleveland Browns | W6 L · W7 W · W8 L · W10 L · W11 L | 17.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Las Vegas Raiders lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W12 | Las Vegas Raiders | 10 – 24 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2024 | W4 | Las Vegas Raiders | 20 – 16 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2021 | W15 | Cleveland Browns | 14 – 16 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2020 | W8 | Cleveland Browns | 6 – 16 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2018 | W4 | Las Vegas Raiders | 45 – 42 | Cleveland Browns |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allegiant Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·0·0·3·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 5/5g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 55' |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 5/21g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Brock Bowers | TE | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·3·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/12g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Michael Mayer | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/17g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Alex Bachman | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Geno Smith | QB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ian Thomas | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Raheem Mostert | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/4g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Lockett | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |

**Cleveland Browns** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Quinshon Judkins | RB | 5 in 9g | 5/9g (0·1·1·0·0·3·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.88 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.90 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' 15' |
| – | Cedric Tillman | WR | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.25 AI 21% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $21.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dylan Sampson | RB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Jerry Jeudy | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 2/5g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.70 AI 18% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Gage Larvadain | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Bond | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jerome Ford | RB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Malachi Corley | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Shedeur Sanders | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Cleveland Browns** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Quinshon Judkins 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 36% · **scored Q1, Q1**
- ⚡ Harold Fannin Jr. 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 21% · no TD
- ⚡ Jerry Jeudy — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 18% · no TD
- Rest of the Browns: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Sampson

**Las Vegas Raiders** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 50% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Brock Bowers 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Tre Tucker — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 25% · no TD
- Rest of the Raiders: 1 TD across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Cleveland Browns hold the ELO advantage (1352 vs 1341), but the market favours Las Vegas Raiders (@1.62). The model sides with ELO, Cleveland Browns predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Las Vegas Raiders 1341 · Cleveland Browns 1352 · ELO difference: 11 in favour of Cleveland Browns

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Las Vegas Raiders | Cleveland Browns | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 36 | 20 | Las Vegas Raiders +16 |
| Receiving Corps | 50 | 52 | Even |
| Backfield | 43 | 42 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 54 | 64 | Cleveland Browns +10 |
| Secondary | 52 | 54 | Even |
| Special Teams | 49 | 59 | Cleveland Browns +10 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | — |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Cleveland Browns |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Cleveland Browns predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-23 21:05 UTC (latest tip update)