# Kansas City Chiefs v Indianapolis Colts — NFL Week 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Kansas City Chiefs 23 – 20 Indianapolis Colts

_Kansas City Chiefs fight back to outgun Indianapolis Colts._

Half time: 9 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Kansas City Chiefs 60% / Indianapolis Colts 40% · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Mon, 24 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Kansas City Chiefs: Kareem Hunt (52' Tipped ⚡) · Indianapolis Colts: Michael Pittman (7' Tipped ⚡), Andrew Ogletree (20')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 60% | Won |
| Indianapolis Colts | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.1 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 12, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

Kansas City Chiefs 23–20 Indianapolis Colts in NFL Week 12 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two very different ways to play football turned up at Arrowhead, and for most of the night it looked like the wrong one was winning.

Kansas City piled up 500 total yards to Indianapolis's 255. Forty-three first downs to sixteen. That's not a stat line, that's a team that had the ball in good positions all day and kept it there. The Colts played it lean by comparison: four sacks, zero turnovers given up, no interest in matching Kansas City yard for yard. For most of the game it worked just fine.

Michael Pittman opened the scoring in the first quarter and Andrew Ogletree followed with 10:36 left in the second, and Indianapolis led 14-9 at the half despite being outgained heavily on paper. By the end of the third quarter that lead had stretched to 20-9. That's the gap between yardage and scoreboard right there. Kansas City's pass rush contributed nothing all game, zero sacks, while Indianapolis's got home four times and turned Chiefs drives into nothing. Two turnovers from Kansas City against none from the Colts did the rest of the damage.

Patrick Mahomes threw 46 times, completed 29, for 352 yards and an interception. Daniel Jones went 19-of-31 for 181 yards and two touchdowns for Indianapolis, nowhere near as busy but far more efficient when it counted. Kareem Hunt's touchdown with 8:41 left in the fourth quarter, part of a 30-carry, 104-yard night, dragged Kansas City back to 15-20. From there the Chiefs found a way to level it at 20-20 by the end of regulation, and overtime went their way: 23-20 the final.

Rashee Rice was the standout target all night, eight catches for 141 yards, the kind of receiving performance that should have put a game like this away well before overtime was needed. It didn't, because the Colts made every Kansas City possession expensive, and their own offence, unspectacular as it was on the yardage sheet, kept finding the end zone when it mattered.

The pre-game numbers help explain the shape of it. Indianapolis came in with a big backfield edge, 92 to 55, and that showed in how they controlled the game without needing to win the yardage battle. Their pass rush rating, 56 to Kansas City's 47, lined up with the four sacks they posted. Kansas City's advantages were at quarterback, 74 to 55, and in the receiving corps, 69 to 63, and those numbers eventually told, just not until the game had gone the distance.

Form coming in had Indianapolis the hotter side, four wins from five against Kansas City's three, and Indianapolis averaging nearly six more points a game across that stretch. Kansas City had the extra rest, seven days to Indianapolis's fourteen days off, though that clearly counted for little across four quarters.

Alphr's model picked Kansas City to win at 60 percent probability and had the margin at Kansas City by 0.1 points. The actual result, a 3-point win in overtime, landed about as close to that number as a model could reasonably hope for.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 23 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Kansas City Chiefs | Stat | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| **500** | Total Yards | 255 |
| **352** | Passing Yards | 181 |
| **148** | Rushing Yards | 74 |
| **43** | First Downs | 16 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **4** |
| **1.3** | Offensive EPA | -0.2 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Kansas City Chiefs to win at 60% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Kansas City Chiefs by 0.1 vs the actual margin of 3 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Moore officiated this match (15 career games). The combined score of 43 points was 8 points below Alex Moore's career average of 51. Kansas City Chiefs's home victory fits Alex Moore's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Kansas City Chiefs to win @ $1.46 (edge -8.4%) — model probability 60.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Indianapolis Colts +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Kansas City Chiefs by 0 · Predicted total: 55

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Kansas City Chiefs are the call at 60%, but Indianapolis Colts stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Kansas City Chiefs sit 80 ELO points clear, 1634 to 1555. Form leans Indianapolis Colts' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Kansas City Chiefs.

On paper Indianapolis Colts shade it, ahead on 4 of 6 factors including Pass Rush, Secondary and Recent Form. The model still sides with Kansas City Chiefs, which says Team Rating (ELO) and Quarterback carry the most weight. Lean Kansas City Chiefs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Indianapolis Colts have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Kansas City Chiefs took the most recent meeting 23-20 in 2025 Week 12.

Kansas City Chiefs went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 5-4 at home, averaging 21.3 points for and 19.3 against.

Indianapolis Colts went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 27.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Patrick Mahomes starts under centre for Kansas City Chiefs, Daniel Jones for Indianapolis Colts, with Andy Reid and Shane Steichen calling the shots.

Indianapolis Colts come in fresher, 14 days between games against 7.

The market has Kansas City Chiefs favourites, Kansas City Chiefs $1.46 and Indianapolis Colts $2.80, with the spread at Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 and the total at 50.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Kansas City Chiefs 4 · Indianapolis Colts 8 |
| Last meeting | Kansas City Chiefs 23-20 (2025) |
| Kansas City Chiefs 2025 so far | 6-11 · 5-4 home |
| Kansas City Chiefs scoring | 21.3 for · 19.3 against |
| Indianapolis Colts 2025 so far | 8-9 · 2-6 away |
| Indianapolis Colts scoring | 27.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Patrick Mahomes · Daniel Jones |
| Head coaches | Andy Reid · Shane Steichen |
| Rest | Kansas City Chiefs 7d · Indianapolis Colts 14d |
| Market | Kansas City Chiefs $1.46 · Indianapolis Colts $2.80 |
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Alex Moore |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Alex Moore** — 15 career games since 2025.

| Team | Record under Alex Moore | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0W–0L | 0% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0W–0L | 0% |

Avg total: 51.2 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Alex Moore, Kansas City Chiefs 0W–0L (0%) and Indianapolis Colts 0W–0L (0%). Games average 51.2 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (0 games for Kansas City Chiefs).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Kansas City Chiefs | Stat | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 25.8pts | Avg Score | 31.6pts |
| 14.8pts | Avg Conceded | 23.4pts |
| 11.0pts | Avg Margin | 8.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 14.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | W6 W · W7 W · W8 W · W9 L · W11 L | 25.8 |
| Indianapolis Colts | W6 W · W7 W · W8 W · W9 L · W10 W | 31.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Kansas City Chiefs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W12 | Kansas City Chiefs | 23 – 20 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2022 | W3 | Indianapolis Colts | 20 – 17 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2019 | W5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 13 – 19 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2018 | WC | Kansas City Chiefs | 31 – 13 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2016 | W8 | Indianapolis Colts | 14 – 30 | Kansas City Chiefs |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Kansas City Chiefs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kareem Hunt | RB | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·2·1·1) | 3/2g | 8/14g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.87 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| – | Marquise Brown | WR | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 4/8g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Mahomes | QB | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 10/46g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Rashee Rice | WR | 4 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·2·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 8/13g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.10 AI 42% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Travis Kelce | TE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/4g | 23/44g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 37% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tyquan Thornton | WR | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/3g | 19% | — | — |
| – | JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/23g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Worthy | WR | 1 in 8g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/14g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Brashard Smith | RB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 6/22g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Nikko Remigio | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Gray | TE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/36g | 8% | — | — |

**Indianapolis Colts** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jonathan Taylor | RB | 17 in 10g | 17/10g (0·1·3·0·3·1·3·3·0·3) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.50 AI 56% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $4.90 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Michael Pittman | WR | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' |
| – | Daniel Jones | QB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Warren | TE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Josh Downs | WR | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Alec Pierce | WR | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 34% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Ameer Abdullah | RB | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Ogletree | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Anthony Gould | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Dulin | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Laquon Treadwell | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mo Alie-Cox | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Goodson | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Indianapolis Colts** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jonathan Taylor 🎯 — 10 TDs in last 5 (9 rush · 1 pass) · model 56% · no TD
- ⚡ Michael Pittman 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 34% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Alec Pierce — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- Rest of the Colts: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: A.Ogletree

**Kansas City Chiefs** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Kareem Hunt 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 47% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Rashee Rice 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 42% · no TD
- ⚡ Travis Kelce — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- Rest of the Chiefs: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Kansas City Chiefs 1634 · Indianapolis Colts 1555 · ELO difference: 80 in favour of Kansas City Chiefs

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Kansas City Chiefs | Indianapolis Colts | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 74 | 55 | Kansas City Chiefs +19 |
| Receiving Corps | 69 | 63 | Kansas City Chiefs +6 |
| Backfield | 55 | 92 | Indianapolis Colts +37 |
| Pass Rush | 47 | 56 | Indianapolis Colts +9 |
| Secondary | 48 | 58 | Indianapolis Colts +10 |
| Special Teams | 57 | 61 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Indianapolis Colts |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Kansas City Chiefs favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 55 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-23 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)