# Green Bay Packers v Minnesota Vikings — NFL Week 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Green Bay Packers 23 – 6 Minnesota Vikings

_Green Bay Packers bundle past Minnesota Vikings._

Half time: 10 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Green Bay Packers 80% / Minnesota Vikings 20% · Lambeau Field · Mon, 24 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Green Bay Packers: Emanuel Wilson (6'), Emanuel Wilson (35') · Minnesota Vikings: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 80% | Won |
| Minnesota Vikings | 20% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.0 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 12, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

Green Bay Packers 23–6 Minnesota Vikings in NFL Week 12 at Lambeau Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Green Bay winning by 9 with 48 points on the board by the end. Green Bay won by 17, and the total landed at 29. So the call was right, the margin was conservative, and the total was nowhere close. That's the story of this one in a nutshell: a lopsided defensive slog dressed up as a shootout on paper.

Final score: Packers 23, Vikings 6, at Lambeau Field. Minnesota didn't manage a single touchdown all day.

The scoring arc tells you this wasn't some late collapse. Emanuel Wilson opened it with a touchdown before the first quarter had burned down to 9:19, and Green Bay led 7-3 at the end of that quarter. By half-time it was 10-6, tight enough that Minnesota could still have talked themselves into something. Wilson's second touchdown, 10:58 into the third, put it at 16-6 and effectively ended the conversation. Green Bay tacked on the rest and Minnesota never scored again.

Pre-match, the model liked Green Bay at 80 percent, built largely off a big edge at quarterback, 59 to 24, and it showed. Jordan Love went 14-of-21 for 139 yards. J.J. McCarthy went 12-of-19 for 87 and threw 2 interceptions, and Minnesota's two turnovers against Green Bay's zero were as good an explanation as any for why 48 combined points never showed up. You can't score if you keep handing the ball back.

The one rating that didn't match the result was pass rush, where Minnesota actually graded out ahead, 61 to 50. Didn't matter. Green Bay's front got home 5 times, Minnesota's got there once, and Green Bay's offence absorbed the pressure that did arrive well enough to still outgain the Vikings 292 yards to 180. Rushing was even more lopsided, 146 to 93, with Wilson doing the bulk of it himself: 107 yards on 28 carries to go with his two scores. That's a workload, not a cameo.

First downs told the same story in bulk: 29 for Green Bay against 13 for Minnesota. When you're that far behind on snaps that actually move the chains, the scoreboard eventually agrees with you. Green Bay's offensive EPA sat at minus 1, hardly a banner day by the raw number, but Minnesota's was minus 18.9. Neither side was humming, Green Bay just wasn't drowning.

Minnesota came in on the back of a rough recent stretch, LLWLL across their last five with an average margin of minus 8, and this fit right into that pattern. Their special teams rating was actually the best mark on the sheet for either side, 67 to 53, but it never got the chance to matter in a game with no explosive returns or field-position swings to exploit.

So the model's instinct, lean hard on the quarterback gap and expect Green Bay comfortably, held up. It just underestimated how comfortable. Nine points projected, seventeen delivered, and a total that came in 19 points under expectations because neither defence let this one turn into the shootout the number suggested. Wins and misses, all of it, and this week the miss was on the side of underselling the home team.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 7 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 23 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Green Bay Packers | Stat | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| **292** | Total Yards | 180 |
| **146** | Passing Yards | 87 |
| **146** | Rushing Yards | 93 |
| **29** | First Downs | 13 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **5** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **-1** | Offensive EPA | -18.9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Green Bay Packers to win at 80% probability. The predicted margin of 9.0 was reasonable against the actual 17-point result. The game's 29 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 48. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Carl Cheffers officiated this match (286 career games). The combined score of 29 points was 16 points below Carl Cheffers's career average of 45. Green Bay Packers's home victory fits Carl Cheffers's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Green Bay Packers to win @ $1.34 (edge +5.5%) — model probability 79.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Green Bay Packers -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 9 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Green Bay Packers here: 80% to see off Minnesota Vikings. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Green Bay Packers sit 117 ELO points clear, 1611 to 1494. Form leans Green Bay Packers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Minnesota Vikings.

Green Bay Packers own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Green Bay Packers by 9.0, with the two sides combining for about 48. Green Bay Packers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Minnesota Vikings have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Minnesota Vikings took the most recent meeting 16-3 in 2025 Week 18.

Green Bay Packers went 9-7-1 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 23.0 points for and 21.2 against.

Minnesota Vikings went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 20.2 points for and 19.6 against.

Jordan Love starts under centre for Green Bay Packers, J.J. McCarthy for Minnesota Vikings, with Matt LaFleur and Kevin O'Connell calling the shots.

The market has Green Bay Packers favourites, Green Bay Packers $1.34 and Minnesota Vikings $3.35, with the spread at Green Bay Packers -6.5 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Green Bay Packers 5 · Minnesota Vikings 7 |
| Last meeting | Minnesota Vikings 16-3 (2025) |
| Green Bay Packers 2025 so far | 9-7-1 · 5-3 home |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 23.0 for · 21.2 against |
| Minnesota Vikings 2025 so far | 9-8 · 5-4 away |
| Minnesota Vikings scoring | 20.2 for · 19.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jordan Love · J.J. McCarthy |
| Head coaches | Matt LaFleur · Kevin O'Connell |
| Market | Green Bay Packers $1.34 · Minnesota Vikings $3.35 |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -6.5 · total 41.5 |
| Referee | Carl Cheffers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Carl Cheffers** — 286 career games since 2008.

| Team | Record under Carl Cheffers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 11W–8L | 58% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8W–5L | 62% |

Avg total: 45.0 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Carl Cheffers, Green Bay Packers 11W–8L (58%) and Minnesota Vikings 8W–5L (62%). Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Green Bay Packers | Stat | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 21.8pts | Avg Score | 19.0pts |
| 18.8pts | Avg Conceded | 27.0pts |
| 3.0pts | Avg Margin | -8.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | W7 W · W8 W · W9 L · W10 L · W11 W | 21.8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | W7 L · W8 L · W9 W · W10 L · W11 L | 19.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Minnesota Vikings lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W18 | Minnesota Vikings | 16 – 3 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2025 | W12 | Green Bay Packers | 23 – 6 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2024 | W17 | Minnesota Vikings | 27 – 25 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2024 | W4 | Green Bay Packers | 29 – 31 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2023 | W17 | Minnesota Vikings | 10 – 33 | Green Bay Packers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lambeau Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Green Bay Packers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 7/26g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Christian Watson | WR | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/4g | 11/22g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 25% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 3/17g | 16% | — | 🏉 6' 35' |
| – | John FitzPatrick | TE | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Josh Whyle | TE | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Savion Williams | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/11g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Dontayvion Wicks | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 7/21g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Love | QB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/25g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Luke Musgrave | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/15g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Malik Willis | QB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 15% | — | — |

**Minnesota Vikings** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jordan Mason | RB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.50 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $26.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jordan Addison | WR | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/4g | 3/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Aaron Jones | RB | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 39/52g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | J.J. McCarthy | QB | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Nailor | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 1/2g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Josh Oliver | TE | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Justin Jefferson | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/9g | 1/4g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | T.J. Hockenson | TE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/5g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Adam Thielen | WR | 0 in 8g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 3/6g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Myles Price | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tai Felton | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Minnesota Vikings** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Justin Jefferson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Jordan Mason 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Jordan Addison — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- ⚡ Aaron Jones — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 25% · no TD
- Rest of the Vikings: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

**Green Bay Packers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Romeo Doubs 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Christian Watson 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 25% · no TD
- Rest of the Packers: 11 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: E.Wilson

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Green Bay Packers 1611 · Minnesota Vikings 1494 · ELO difference: 117 in favour of Green Bay Packers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Green Bay Packers | Minnesota Vikings | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 59 | 24 | Green Bay Packers +35 |
| Receiving Corps | 52 | 49 | Even |
| Backfield | 48 | 51 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 61 | Minnesota Vikings +11 |
| Secondary | 57 | 49 | Green Bay Packers +8 |
| Special Teams | 53 | 67 | Minnesota Vikings +14 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 80%** — Green Bay Packers predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-23 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)