# Detroit Lions v New York Giants — NFL Week 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Detroit Lions 34 – 27 New York Giants

_Detroit Lions hit back to devour New York Giants._

Half time: 17 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Detroit Lions 95% / New York Giants 5% · Ford Field · Mon, 24 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Detroit Lions: Amon-Ra St. Brown (19' Tipped ⚡), Jahmyr Gibbs (28' Tipped ⚡), Jahmyr Gibbs (49' Tipped ⚡), Jahmyr Gibbs (51' Tipped ⚡) · New York Giants: Wan'Dale Robinson (2' Tipped ⚡), Isaiah Hodgins (22'), Jameis Winston (48')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 95% | Won |
| New York Giants | 5% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 16.0 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Detroit Lions vs New York Giants Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 12, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

Detroit Lions 34–27 New York Giants in NFL Week 12 at Ford Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model liked Detroit Lions by 16 and pegged the total at 60. Final score: Detroit Lions 34, New York Giants 27, after overtime, with the combined total landing at 61. Add that up and the model's read on points scored was almost exact. The margin was the part that got away from it, and for long stretches of this game, so did the Lions.

New York Giants scored first, Wan'Dale Robinson going over inside the opening 13 minutes, and led 10-0 by the end of the first quarter. Detroit spent the rest of regulation chasing it. Isaiah Hodgins put the Giants up 16-7 in the second, and even when Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown answered, New York Giants still led 20-17 at the break. Jameis Winston stretched it to 26-17 early in the fourth before Gibbs' second touchdown made it a one-score game. Detroit never led in regulation. Gibbs had to force overtime to get there, and once he did, his third touchdown of the day settled it.

The yardage battle tells you why this went the distance. New York Giants actually outgained Detroit Lions, 521 to 516, and won first downs 38 to 35. Winston threw for 366 yards on 18-of-42 passing with 2 touchdowns and a pick, working behind a pass rush of his own that got to Jared Goff 3 times to Detroit's 1. Goff still finished 28-of-42 for 279 yards and 2 touchdowns with an interception, a solid enough day but not the cleaner performance the pre-match numbers suggested a stronger-rated quarterback would produce.

Where Detroit won it was on the ground. 237 rushing yards to New York Giants' 122, and Jahmyr Gibbs was the reason: 219 yards on just 15 carries and 3 touchdowns, the last of them the OT

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 0 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 34 |
| New York Giants | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 27 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Detroit Lions | Stat | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 516 | Total Yards | **521** |
| 279 | Passing Yards | **399** |
| **237** | Rushing Yards | 122 |
| 35 | First Downs | **38** |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| 8.7 | Offensive EPA | **8.9** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Detroit Lions to win at 95% probability. The predicted margin of 16.0 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. Total score prediction of 60 was close to the actual 61, within 2 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 50.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Craig Wrolstad officiated this match (194 career games). The combined score of 61 points was 15 points above Craig Wrolstad's career average of 46.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Detroit Lions to win @ $1.10 (edge +3.9%) — model probability 95.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Detroit Lions -14 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Detroit Lions by 16 · Predicted total: 60

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Detroit Lions here: 95% to see off New York Giants. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Detroit Lions sit 294 ELO points clear, 1644 to 1350. Form leans Detroit Lions' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for New York Giants.

Detroit Lions own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Detroit Lions by 16.0, with the two sides combining for about 60. Detroit Lions to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Detroit Lions have won 7 of the last 11 between these two, and Detroit Lions took the most recent meeting 34-27 in 2025 Week 12.

Detroit Lions went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 28.3 points for and 24.3 against.

New York Giants went 4-13 in 2025 so far, 1-8 away, averaging 22.4 points for and 25.8 against.

Jared Goff starts under centre for Detroit Lions, Jaxson Dart for New York Giants, with Dan Campbell and Brian Daboll calling the shots.

The market has Detroit Lions favourites, Detroit Lions $1.10 and New York Giants $7.75, with the spread at Detroit Lions -14 and the total at 50.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 11) | Detroit Lions 7 · New York Giants 4 |
| Last meeting | Detroit Lions 34-27 (2025) |
| Detroit Lions 2025 so far | 9-8 · 5-3 home |
| Detroit Lions scoring | 28.3 for · 24.3 against |
| New York Giants 2025 so far | 4-13 · 1-8 away |
| New York Giants scoring | 22.4 for · 25.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jared Goff · Jaxson Dart |
| Head coaches | Dan Campbell · Brian Daboll |
| Market | Detroit Lions $1.10 · New York Giants $7.75 |
| Spread | Detroit Lions -14 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Craig Wrolstad |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Craig Wrolstad** — 194 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Craig Wrolstad | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 4W–5L | 44% |
| New York Giants | 6W–8L | 43% |

Avg total: 45.5 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Craig Wrolstad, Detroit Lions 4W–5L (44%) and New York Giants 6W–8L (43%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Detroit Lions | Stat | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 23.6pts | Avg Score | 23.2pts |
| 20.8pts | Avg Conceded | 31.2pts |
| 2.8pts | Avg Margin | -8.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | W6 L · W7 W · W9 L · W10 W · W11 L | 23.6 |
| New York Giants | W7 L · W8 L · W9 L · W10 L · W11 L | 23.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Detroit Lions lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W12 | Detroit Lions | 34 – 27 | New York Giants |
| 2022 | W11 | New York Giants | 18 – 31 | Detroit Lions |
| 2019 | W8 | Detroit Lions | 31 – 26 | New York Giants |
| 2017 | W2 | New York Giants | 10 – 24 | Detroit Lions |
| 2016 | W15 | New York Giants | 17 – 6 | Detroit Lions |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ford Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Detroit Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (0·1·2·1·1·0·2·0·3·0) | 0/0g | 25/23g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.23 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $3.60 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' 49' 51' |
| – | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (0·3·1·2·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 24/39g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.94 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' |
| – | David Montgomery | RB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/3g | 16/25g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.75 AI 38% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jameson Williams | WR | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 9/23g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 34% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Brock Wright | TE | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/28g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Isaac TeSlaa | WR | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Kalif Raymond | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/36g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Saylors | RB | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jared Goff | QB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/42g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ross Dwelley | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

**New York Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Theo Johnson | TE | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $19.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Devin Singletary | RB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' |
| – | Daniel Bellinger | TE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Gunner Olszewski | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jameis Winston | QB | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 12% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Darius Slayton | WR | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Eric Gray | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Hodgins | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 22' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Giants** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Theo Johnson 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Wan'Dale Robinson 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 30% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Giants: 13 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: I.Hodgins, J.Winston

**Detroit Lions** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jahmyr Gibbs 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 61% · **scored Q2, Q4, Q5**
- ⚡ Amon-Ra St. Brown 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 42% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ David Montgomery — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Jameson Williams — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- Rest of the Lions: 2 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Detroit Lions 1644 · New York Giants 1350 · ELO difference: 294 in favour of Detroit Lions

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Detroit Lions | New York Giants | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 56 | 35 | Detroit Lions +21 |
| Receiving Corps | 50 | 61 | New York Giants +11 |
| Backfield | 67 | 57 | Detroit Lions +10 |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 56 | Even |
| Secondary | 58 | 50 | Detroit Lions +8 |
| Special Teams | 58 | 54 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 95%** — Detroit Lions predicted to win by 16 points · Predicted total: 60 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-23 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)