# Dallas Cowboys v Philadelphia Eagles — NFL Week 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dallas Cowboys 24 – 21 Philadelphia Eagles

_Dallas Cowboys surge back to rope in Philadelphia Eagles from 14 down._

Half time: 7 – 21 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dallas Cowboys 31% / Philadelphia Eagles 69% · AT&T Stadium · Mon, 24 Nov, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Dallas Cowboys: George Pickens (30' Tipped ⚡), Brevyn Spann-Ford (43'), Dak Prescott (49') · Philadelphia Eagles: A.J. Brown (7'), Jalen Hurts (14'), Jalen Hurts (19')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 69% | Lost |
| Dallas Cowboys | 31% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.7 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 12, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Nov 2025, 08:25 am_

Dallas Cowboys 24–21 Philadelphia Eagles in NFL Week 12 at AT&T Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Philadelphia Eagles did most things right for most of the night, and it still wasn't enough. That's the sort of result that should sting on the flight home.

The start was theirs entirely. A.J. Brown opened the scoring inside the first quarter, Jalen Hurts followed it up before the quarter was out, and by 11:35 into the second Hurts had his second to make it 20-0. Dallas had nothing on the board. At that point Philadelphia were playing the game the model expected, backed by an offense that finished +7.4 in expected points added against Dallas's -2.6, a gap of ten that tells you who was moving the ball with purpose.

Hurts finished 27-of-39 for 289 yards and those two touchdowns, tidy work, and Philadelphia's last-five form (four wins, average margin of plus-3.4) said this was a side that knew how to see games out. They didn't. Their one turnover proved costly against a Dallas side that piled up 479 total yards, and once the Cowboys' pass rush and secondary started finding answers, the concession that had them averaging 18.4 points allowed over their last five stretched wide open at AT&T Stadium.

George Pickens capped Dallas's first scoring drive of the night with 24 seconds left in the half, cutting it to 7-21, and that score alone was worth more than it looked. It meant Philadelphia went into the break having led by three touchdowns and come out with only two.

Dallas kept chipping. Brevyn Spann-Ford's touchdown with just over two minutes left in the third made it 13-21, and Dak Prescott punched one in himself early in the fourth to get within a point at 20-21. Philadelphia never scored again after Hurts' second touchdown in the second quarter, and that's the story of the second half in one line: Dallas outscored them 24-0 from that point on.

Prescott finished 23-of-36 for 354 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and Pickens was the standout target with 9 catches for 146 yards and the score that got Dallas moving. Javonte Williams added 87 yards on 20 carries, and Dallas's 125 rushing yards to Philadelphia's 63 gave them a platform Philadelphia's defence couldn't shut down once it mattered. Dallas won the total yardage battle by 127 yards and did it despite giving the ball away twice to Philadelphia's one, which says plenty about how much they were controlling the game late.

Philadelphia arrived rated the stronger side across the board, ELO of 1697 to Dallas's 1473, and Alphr's model had them favoured by 6.7 points on a projected total near 47. The total landed close, 45 points in the end. The winner didn't. Dallas closing it out 24-21 after trailing by three scores is exactly the sort of result that makes a 69% number look shaky in hindsight, and Philadelphia's front-runners now have a second-half collapse to explain that their form line gave no hint of.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 0 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 24 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 14 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dallas Cowboys | Stat | Philadelphia Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **479** | Total Yards | 352 |
| **354** | Passing Yards | 289 |
| **125** | Rushing Yards | 63 |
| **38** | First Downs | 32 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **1** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | 1 |
| -2.6 | Offensive EPA | **7.4** |

**Model Report Card**

Dallas Cowboys defied the model's 69% prediction for Philadelphia Eagles, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 6.7 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 45, within 2 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Bill Vinovich officiated this match (274 career games). The 45-point combined total was right in line with Bill Vinovich's career average of 45. Dallas Cowboys's victory aligns with Bill Vinovich's historical trend, Dallas Cowboys have a 59% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Philadelphia Eagles to win @ $1.62 (edge +6.9%) — model probability 68.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles -3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Philadelphia Eagles by 7 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Philadelphia Eagles here: 69% to see off Dallas Cowboys. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Philadelphia Eagles sit 225 ELO points clear, 1697 to 1473. Form leans Philadelphia Eagles' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Dallas Cowboys.

Philadelphia Eagles own the matchup too, leading 2 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO) and Recent Form. The margin model has Philadelphia Eagles by 6.7, with the two sides combining for about 47. Philadelphia Eagles to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Dallas Cowboys taking the most recent 24-21 in 2025 Week 12.

Dallas Cowboys went 7-9-1 in 2025 so far, 4-4 at home, averaging 27.7 points for and 30.1 against.

Philadelphia Eagles went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-3 away, averaging 22.3 points for and 19.1 against.

Dak Prescott starts under centre for Dallas Cowboys, Jalen Hurts for Philadelphia Eagles, with Brian Schottenheimer and Nick Sirianni calling the shots.

The market has Philadelphia Eagles favourites, Dallas Cowboys $2.36 and Philadelphia Eagles $1.62, with the spread at Philadelphia Eagles -3 and the total at 47.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Dallas Cowboys 6 · Philadelphia Eagles 6 |
| Last meeting | Dallas Cowboys 24-21 (2025) |
| Dallas Cowboys 2025 so far | 7-9-1 · 4-4 home |
| Dallas Cowboys scoring | 27.7 for · 30.1 against |
| Philadelphia Eagles 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-3 away |
| Philadelphia Eagles scoring | 22.3 for · 19.1 against |
| Quarterbacks | Dak Prescott · Jalen Hurts |
| Head coaches | Brian Schottenheimer · Nick Sirianni |
| Market | Dallas Cowboys $2.36 · Philadelphia Eagles $1.62 |
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -3 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Bill Vinovich |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dallas Cowboys

**Bill Vinovich** — 274 career games since 2004.

| Team | Record under Bill Vinovich | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 13W–9L | 59% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7W–8L | 47% |

Avg total: 44.8 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Dallas Cowboys hold a 12-point edge: 13W–9L (59%) vs Philadelphia Eagles's 7W–8L (47%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dallas Cowboys | Stat | Philadelphia Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 29.0pts | Avg Score | 21.8pts |
| 27.8pts | Avg Conceded | 18.4pts |
| 1.2pts | Avg Margin | 3.4pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | W6 L · W7 W · W8 L · W9 L · W11 W | 29.0 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | W6 L · W7 W · W8 W · W10 W · W11 W | 21.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Philadelphia Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W12 | Dallas Cowboys | 24 – 21 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2025 | W1 | Philadelphia Eagles | 24 – 20 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2024 | W17 | Philadelphia Eagles | 41 – 7 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2024 | W10 | Dallas Cowboys | 6 – 34 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2023 | W14 | Dallas Cowboys | 33 – 13 | Philadelphia Eagles |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AT&T Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dallas Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Javonte Williams | RB | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (2·1·0·1·2·0·1·2·0·0) | 2/2g | 3/5g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.76 AI 52% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | George Pickens | WR | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 3/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| – | Jake Ferguson | TE | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·2·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 11/26g | 30% | — | — |
| – | CeeDee Lamb | WR | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 5/10g | 26/45g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 42% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Ryan Flournoy | WR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 1/10g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Dak Prescott | QB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 23/69g | 12% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Hunter Luepke | RB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/14g | 7% | — | — |
| – | KaVontae Turpin | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 4/30g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Brevyn Spann-Ford | TE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 0% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Luke Schoonmaker | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/19g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Malik Davis | RB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |

**Philadelphia Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Dallas Goedert | TE | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·0·1·2·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 4/13g | 3/7g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jalen Hurts | QB | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 5/8g | 2/4g | 58% | — | 🏉 14' 19' |
| – | Saquon Barkley | RB | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 4/13g | 1/6g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.96 AI 42% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | A.J. Brown | WR | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/3g | 38% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | DeVonta Smith | WR | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 6/9g | 2/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 37% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jahan Dotson | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Cameron Latu | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darius Cooper | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Grant Calcaterra | TE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Tank Bigsby | RB | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Will Shipley | RB | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Gipson | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Saquon Barkley 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 42% · no TD
- ⚡ Dallas Goedert 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ DeVonta Smith — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- Rest of the Eagles: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: A.Brown, J.Hurts

**Dallas Cowboys** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Javonte Williams 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 52% · no TD
- ⚡ George Pickens 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 47% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ CeeDee Lamb — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 42% · no TD
- Rest of the Cowboys: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: B.Spann-Ford, D.Prescott

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dallas Cowboys 1473 · Philadelphia Eagles 1697 · ELO difference: 225 in favour of Philadelphia Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Dallas Cowboys | Philadelphia Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 60 | 60 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 62 | 61 | Even |
| Backfield | 46 | 49 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 60 | Even |
| Secondary | 55 | 51 | Even |
| Special Teams | 62 | 54 | Dallas Cowboys +8 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Philadelphia Eagles predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r12-dallas-cowboys-v-philadelphia-eagles
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-11-23 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)